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NHPNational Healthcare Properties,Sell4.6·$14.80-1.53%
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National Healthcare Properties, (NHP) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.80: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The Company acquires, owns and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate, focused on outpatient medical facilities and senior housing operating... Read more

$14.80+1.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#14 of 16 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield2.13%
IncomeYield2.03%Payout0.00%
Stop $13.76Target $15.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.0:1
Analyst target$17.00+14.9%7 analysts
$15.08our TP
$14.80price
$17.00mean
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.80: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-0.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)246.7
Mkt Cap$1.1B
EV/EBITDA19.6
Profit Mgn-17.6%
ROE-9.5%
Rev Growth-0.2%
Beta
Dividend2.03%
Rating analysts7

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

IV97%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Unprofitable operations — net margin -17.6%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Roa
0.8
Current Ratio
1.7
Moat
3.2
Gross Margin
3.5
Operating Margin
4.7
Piotroski F
5.6
No competitive moatQuality concerns
GatesMomentum 4.2<4.5A.R:R -0.0=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
57 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MASupport $13.11Resistance $15.39

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside+1.9%
A.R:R-0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0)
! momentum at 4.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

We could not retrieve earnings history for NHP.
The company may be recently listed, pre-revenue, or its beat/miss record wasn't available from our source this run. Earnings signals feed the Growth and Catalyst score dimensions — absence here doesn't affect other dimensions.

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHP stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.80: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $13.76. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NHP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.08 (+1.9% upside). Prior stop was $13.76. Stop-loss: $13.76.

What are the risks of investing in NHP?

Target reached (-0.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).

Is NHP overvalued or undervalued?

National Healthcare Properties, trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 246.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

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What does National Healthcare Properties, do?National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The...

National Healthcare Properties, Inc. is a real estate investment trust for U.S. federal income tax purposes. The Company acquires, owns and manages a diversified portfolio of healthcare-related real estate, focused on outpatient medical facilities and senior housing operating properties. As of September 30, 2025, the Company owned 174 properties (including one land parcel and one property classified as held-for-sale) located in 30 states and comprised of 7.3 million rentable square feet. Substantially all the Company's business is conducted through the OP and its wholly owned subsidiaries, including taxable REIT subsidiaries. Prior to the consummation of the Internalization (as defined below) on September 27, 2024, the Company's former advisor, Healthcare Trust Advisors, LLC, managed its day-to-day business with the assistance of its property manager, Healthcare Trust Properties, LLC the former Advisor and Property Manager were under common control with AR Global Investments, LLC, and these related parties received compensation and fees for providing services to the Company. See the Internalization section in this Note for additional information. As of September 30, 2025, the Company owned 40 (including one property classified as held-for-sale) SHOPs using the REIT Investment Diversification and Empowerment Act of 2007 structure in its SHOP segment. Under RIDEA, a REIT may lease (qualified healthcare properties) on an arm's length basis to a TRS if the property is operated on behalf of such subsidiary by a person who qualifies as an eligible independent contractor. As of September 30, 2025, the Company had four eligible independent contractors operating 39 SHOPs. The Company has two operating and reportable business segments (OMFs and Shops). All the Company's properties across both business segments are located throughout the United States. In its OMF operating segment, the Company owns, manages and leases single and multi-tenant OMFs where tenants are generally required to pay their pro rata share of property operating expenses, which may be subject to expense exclusions and floors, in addition to base rent. The Property Manager or third-party managers manage the Company's OMFs. National Healthcare Properties, Inc. was incorporated in 2012 in Maryland, USA.

Related stocks: SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · CHCT (Community Healthcare Trust Inco) · XRN (Chiron Real Estate Inc.)
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