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Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.05 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues.... Read more

$5.05+4.0% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield26.15%
IncomeYield7.20%(5y avg 10.11%)Payout1054.55%
Stop $4.74Target $5.26(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$5.79+14.6%7 analysts
$5.26our TP
$5.05price
$5.79mean
$8

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.05 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)30.3
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA12.9
Profit Mgn-11.5%
ROE-2.7%
Rev Growth12.6%
Beta1.46
Dividend7.20%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.19bullish
IV54%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Macd
3.7
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.86Resistance $5.37

Price Targets

$5
$5
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.05 — A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.74. Score 5.4/10, high confidence.

What is the MPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.26 (+4.0% upside). Prior stop was $4.74. Stop-loss: $4.74.

What are the risks of investing in MPT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 30.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPT?

16 analysts cover MPT with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European...

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues. Circle (UK, 14.1% of assets), Priory (UK, 8.7%), and HSA (US, 8.0%) are the three largest tenants.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.)