Medical Properties Trust generates free cash flow equal to 71% of revenue despite a GAAP net loss, and its Rule of 40 score of 84 is elite, but 30% short interest, consecutive earnings misses, and leverage of 2.1x debt-to-equity create a high-risk setup with minimal upside margin.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Positive Despite Gaap Loss↑Improving
- High Short Interest Justified↑Improving
- Leverage Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Sector Rotation edge
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.02: Risk below floor (1.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.79; Negative price momentum.
MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and South America. At December 31, 2025, it held 384 facilities with roughly 39,000 licensed beds, generating $972 million in total 2025 revenues from long-term net... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.02: Risk below floor (1.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.79; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 105d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
Medical Properties Trust held 384 healthcare facilities totaling approximately 39,000 licensed beds across 31 U.S. states and eight international markets at year-end 2025, generating $972 million in total revenues. The portfolio spans 165 general acute care hospitals, 68 behavioral health facilities, and 128 post-acute care facilities, with $15 billion in total assets and roughly half located outside the United States.
Revenue at Medical Properties Trust flows primarily through absolute-net leases—where tenants bear all operating costs including utilities, taxes, and maintenance—with rent-billed and straight-line rent accounting for 91% of 2025 revenues. The lease portfolio carries a weighted-average remaining initial term of 16.7 years, and 99% of leases include annual escalators tied to CPI or fixed minimums. Top tenants include Circle (36 U.K. facilities, leases through 2050), Priory Group (37 U.K. facilities through 2046), and Healthcare Systems of America (eight U.S. facilities through September 2044). The company had approximately $9.6 billion of debt outstanding as of February 2026, and the 10-K discloses that revenues depend particularly on Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral, which together represent 42% of total assets.
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Tenant credit quality poses a concentrated risk distinct from the portfolio's geographic breadth. The company has experienced two tenant bankruptcies—Steward Healthcare in May 2024 and Prospect Medical Holdings in January 2025—requiring costly re-tenanting and impairment charges across both fiscal years. Circle, the largest tenant at 14.1% of total assets, holds 36 U.K. facilities under leases expiring in 2050; a default would trigger cross-default provisions across all 34 guaranteed leases, a structure the 10-K flags as a pronounced negative risk.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 3, 2026Recent Developments — Medical Properties Trust, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nasdaq 100 Gets a Lift As Nvidia Overtakes Apple: Stock Market Today — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS BNP Paribas Downgrades Medical Properties Trust to Neutral — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS RBC Capital Downgrades Medical Properties Trust to Underperform, Lowers Price Target to $2 — benzinga Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS RBC Downgrades Medical Properties Trust to Underperform — fiscal.ai Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Medical Properties Trust Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results — fiscal.ai Oct 29, 2026
Latest item Nov 3, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:59:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMTenantCircle10-K Item 1A: 'our largest tenants – Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral – represented 14.1%, 8.7%, 8.0%, 5.8%, and 5.4%, respectively, of our total assets'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational (outside U.S.)10-K Item 1A: 'we had approximately 50.3% of our total assets located in eight different countries outside the U.S.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -5.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Volatile — 9.9% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $2.02: Risk below floor (1.4 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 3.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 33%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.79; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 17, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $1.89. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $3.19 (+57.9% upside). Prior stop was $1.89. Stop-loss: $1.89.
Risk below floor (1.4 < 3.0).
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of 4.8 (forward -80.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate MPT, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 6 analysts publish price targets averaging $4.
What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and...
MPT is a self-advised REIT that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities across the U.S., Europe, and South America. At December 31, 2025, it held 384 facilities with roughly 39,000 licensed beds, generating $972 million in total 2025 revenues from long-term net leases.