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MPTMedical Properties Trust, Inc.Sell5.5·$4.87-1.81%
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Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. At $4.87, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.1%.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues.... Read more

$4.87+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield26.36%
IncomeYield7.26%(5y avg 10.13%)Payout1054.55%
Stop $4.71Target $5.03(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$5.79+18.8%7 analysts
$5.03our TP
$4.87price
$5.79mean
$8

Sell if holding. At $4.87, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

About Medical Properties Trust, Inc.

Medical Properties Trust held 384 healthcare facilities totaling approximately 39,000 licensed beds across 31 U.S. states and eight international markets at year-end 2025, generating $972 million in total revenues. The portfolio spans 165 general acute care hospitals, 68 behavioral health facilities, and 128 post-acute care facilities, with $15 billion in total assets and roughly half located outside the United States.

Revenue at Medical Properties Trust flows primarily through absolute-net leases—where tenants bear all operating costs including utilities, taxes, and maintenance—with rent-billed and straight-line rent accounting for 91% of 2025 revenues. The lease portfolio carries a weighted-average remaining initial term of 16.7 years, and 99% of leases include annual escalators tied to CPI or fixed minimums. Top tenants include Circle (36 U.K. facilities, leases through 2050), Priory Group (37 U.K. facilities through 2046), and Healthcare Systems of America (eight U.S. facilities through September 2044). The company had approximately $9.6 billion of debt outstanding as of February 2026, and the 10-K discloses that revenues depend particularly on Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral, which together represent 42% of total assets.

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Tenant credit quality poses a concentrated risk distinct from the portfolio's geographic breadth. The company has experienced two tenant bankruptcies—Steward Healthcare in May 2024 and Prospect Medical Holdings in January 2025—requiring costly re-tenanting and impairment charges across both fiscal years. Circle, the largest tenant at 14.1% of total assets, holds 36 U.K. facilities under leases expiring in 2050; a default would trigger cross-default provisions across all 34 guaranteed leases, a structure the 10-K flags as a pronounced negative risk.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

From Medical Properties Trust, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)33.8
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA12.8
Profit Mgn-11.5%
ROE-2.7%
Rev Growth12.6%
Beta1.46
Dividend7.26%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.48bullish
IV55%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
3.2
Rsi
3.5
Macd
3.7
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.3%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
1.1
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 2.7<4.5A.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.86Resistance $5.28

Price Targets

$5
$5
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.6 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $4.87, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.71. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.03 (+3.1% upside). Prior stop was $4.71. Stop-loss: $4.71.

What are the risks of investing in MPT?

Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 33.8). TrendMatrix value score: 5.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPT?

16 analysts cover MPT with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European...

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised healthcare REIT with 384 facilities across 31 US states, 7 European countries, and Colombia, leased to operators under long-term net leases. Total assets were $15B at December 31, 2025; rent billed = 75.8% of $972M total revenues. Circle (UK, 14.1% of assets), Priory (UK, 8.7%), and HSA (US, 8.0%) are the three largest tenants.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.)
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