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Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5.

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised REIT formed in 2003 that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities, holding investments in 384 facilities across 31 U.S. states, seven European countries, and Colombia. Total assets were $15.0B at December 31, 2025;... Read more

$5.00+2.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Stop $4.75Target $5.10(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$5.86+17.1%7 analysts
$5.10our TP
$5.00price
$5.86mean
$8

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)38.0
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA13.5
Profit Mgn-25.9%
ROE-5.8%
Rev Growth25.4%
Beta1.50
Dividend7.02%
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.52bullish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWTenantCircle14%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest tenants – Circle, Priory, HSA, Swiss Medical, and Lifepoint Behavioral – represented 14.1%, 8.7%, 8.0%, 5.8%, and 5.4%, respectively, of our total assets'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.54Resistance $5.32

Price Targets

$5
$5
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.0% upside)
! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $5.00 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.75. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MPT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.10 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $4.75. Stop-loss: $4.75.

What are the risks of investing in MPT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.1): -1.5; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MPT overvalued or undervalued?

Medical Properties Trust, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 38.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MPT?

16 analysts cover MPT with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Medical Properties Trust, Inc. do?Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised REIT formed in 2003 that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare...

Medical Properties Trust is a self-advised REIT formed in 2003 that acquires and develops net-leased healthcare facilities, holding investments in 384 facilities across 31 U.S. states, seven European countries, and Colombia. Total assets were $15.0B at December 31, 2025; approximately 95% of revenues come from rent billed and straight-line rent under long-term triple-net leases with 50 tenants.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.) · NHI (National Health Investors, Inc.)