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LTC Properties, Inc. (LTC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk).

LTC Properties is a Maryland REIT investing in seniors housing and healthcare properties through ownership, sale-leasebacks, mortgage financing, joint ventures, and structured finance. Revenue comes from lease rentals (~44.2% of 2025 revenue), mortgage interest, and fees from... Read more

$38.31+2.2% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#11 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Stop $36.89Target $39.12(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$41.29+7.8%7 analysts
$39.12our TP
$38.31price
$41.29mean
$45

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)23.8
Mkt Cap$1.9B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn45.8%
ROE11.2%
Rev Growth-19.0%
Beta0.61
Dividend5.96%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.60bullish
IV34%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenanttop three operators25%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 25.3% of our revenues from leases and interest income from real estate investments were generated from three operators'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -19.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -19%
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $37.25Resistance $39.92

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside+2.1%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is LTC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.31 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 6 days (event risk). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $36.89. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the LTC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.12 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $36.89. Stop-loss: $36.89.

What are the risks of investing in LTC?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is LTC overvalued or undervalued?

LTC Properties, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 23.8). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about LTC?

12 analysts cover LTC with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $41.

What does LTC Properties, Inc. do?LTC Properties is a Maryland REIT investing in seniors housing and healthcare properties through ownership,...

LTC Properties is a Maryland REIT investing in seniors housing and healthcare properties through ownership, sale-leasebacks, mortgage financing, joint ventures, and structured finance. Revenue comes from lease rentals (~44.2% of 2025 revenue), mortgage interest, and fees from SHOP properties under RIDEA structures; diversified by operator and geography.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · CTRE (CareTrust REIT, Inc.)