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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $76.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3%... Read more

$76.69+5.2% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#10 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.65%
IncomeYield4.85%(5y avg 5.88%)Payout118.06%
Stop $72.83Target $80.67(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$87.13+13.6%8 analysts
$80.67our TP
$76.69price
$87.13mean
$74
$97

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $76.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — National Health Investors, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.5
P/E (Fwd)20.9
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA17.9
Profit Mgn36.6%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.58
Dividend4.85%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.31bullish
IV33%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Earnings Growth
5.4
Declining revenue: -3%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
2.9
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $72.43Resistance $82.32

Price Targets

$73
$81
A.Upside+5.2%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.2% upside)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $76.69 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $72.83. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the NHI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.67 (+5.2% upside). Prior stop was $72.83. Stop-loss: $72.83.

What are the risks of investing in NHI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is NHI overvalued or undervalued?

National Health Investors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.5 (forward 20.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NHI?

12 analysts cover NHI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $87.

What does National Health Investors, Inc. do?National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties...

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3% rental income, 21.3% resident fees, and 6.4% interest/other. NHI is selling 32 skilled nursing and 3 independent living facilities to NHC for $560M.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.)