National Health Investors is a healthcare REIT with strong 37% margins, excellent free cash flow conversion, and analyst upside potential, but two consecutive earnings misses, negative price momentum, and a dividend coverage concern limit near-term entry attractiveness.
Thesis pillars
- Reit Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
- Consecutive Earnings Misses↓Deteriorating
- Price Momentum Below Trend↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $375.6 million in 2025 total revenues, owning 176 properties ($2.7 billion gross carrying value) primarily leased under triple-net leases to 31 tenants in 32 states, plus 26 SHOP senior housing communities (3,009... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, positive momentum, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About National Health Investors, Inc.
About National Health Investors, Inc.
National Health Investors generated $375.6 million in total revenues during 2025—a 12.1% increase over the prior year—from 176 triple-net-leased properties ($2.7 billion gross value) across 32 states leased to 31 tenants, plus 26 SHOP senior housing communities with 3,009 units operated by third-party managers. The portfolio comprised 110 senior housing properties, 65 skilled nursing facilities, and one hospital as of December 31, 2025. Rental income ($271.6 million, 72.3% of revenues), SHOP resident fees ($80.1 million, 21.3%), and interest and other income ($24.0 million, 6.4%) made up the revenue mix.
The company earns rental income through triple-net leases with initial terms of 10 to 15 years and one or more five-year renewal options; most leases include annual rent escalators recognized on a straight-line basis. Under the NNN structure, tenants pay taxes, utilities, insurance, and capital expenditures. The SHOP segment uses the RIDEA structure—NHI owns properties through consolidated partnerships (16 of 26 communities held in consolidated joint ventures) while third-party managers like Life Care Services operate them for a management fee. A $218.7 million note receivable portfolio, consisting of 11 mortgage loans at 7.3%–12.0%, nine mezzanine loans at 6.0%–10.0%, and four construction loans at 8.5%–9.0%, provides additional interest income and future acquisition optionality. NHI competes for healthcare real estate acquisitions with other REITs, private equity funds, banks, and insurance companies.
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Tenant credit concentration is the dominant balance-sheet risk for NHI's Real Estate Investments segment. The 10-K discloses that a small number of tenants account for a significant percentage of rental income, and a board-level conflict of interest is flagged through a director who also chairs National HealthCare Corporation's (NHC) board. In April 2026, NHI entered a Purchase and Sale Agreement for NHC to acquire 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities for $560 million—removing the NHC Master Lease from the portfolio and converting the company's largest tenant relationship into a one-time disposition that materially reshapes the Real Estate Investments segment.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From National Health Investors, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — National Health Investors, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Top National Healthcare Properties (NHP) Competitors 2026 - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS The National Health Insurance Corporation will also consider charging insurance premiums for financi.. - 매일경제 — 매일경제 Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS National Health Investors Q3 2026 Earnings Date and Estimates - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Matlala claims Swarts, Sibiya and Cele promised him leases for NHI contracts - IOL — IOL Oct 25, 2026 negative
- NEWS 【PhytoHealth FY2026 H1 Earnings Call】PhytoHealth's Blood Treasure Five Years Into NHI Coverage; President Li Yi-ling: Se — finance.biggo.com Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMTenantsmall number of tenants10-K Item 1A: 'A small number of tenants in our portfolio account for a significant percentage of the rental income we expect to generate from our portfolio'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 1.01MEDIUMNHI entered Purchase and Sale Agreement to sell 32 SNFs and 3 ILFs in AL, FL, KY, MO, SC, TN, and VA to NHC for $560M. Properties currently leased under the Master Lease dated October 17, 1991.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-21Item 1.02MEDIUMMaster Agreement to Lease with NHC/OP, L.P. to be terminated upon closing of the $560M property sale. Resolves the September 2025 default dispute with NHC.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-23Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO John L. Spaid notified intent to retire effective July 1, 2026; no disagreement with company cited. Successor Todd Siefert appointed EVP Corporate Finance effective June 1, 2026; will become CFO upon Spaid's retirement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $71.29 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Prior stop was $67.81. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $68.30 reached (−4.2% from $71.29); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $67.81. Stop-loss: $67.81.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).
National Health Investors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.6 (forward 20.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate NHI, with a consensus score of 3.8/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $79.
What does National Health Investors, Inc. do?National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $375.6 million in 2025 total revenues, owning 176...
National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $375.6 million in 2025 total revenues, owning 176 properties ($2.7 billion gross carrying value) primarily leased under triple-net leases to 31 tenants in 32 states, plus 26 SHOP senior housing communities (3,009 units) operated by third-party managers.