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NHINational Health Investors, Inc.Sell5.3·$70.64-2.02%
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National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. At $70.64, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3%... Read more

$70.64+4.4% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.95%
IncomeYield5.10%(5y avg 5.85%)Payout118.06%
Stop $66.72Target $73.73(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$84.75+20.0%8 analysts
$73.73our TP
$70.64price
$84.75mean
$91

Sell if holding. At $70.64, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 52d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About National Health Investors, Inc.

About National Health Investors, Inc.

National Health Investors generated $375.6 million in total revenues during 2025—a 12.1% increase over the prior year—from 176 triple-net-leased properties ($2.7 billion gross value) across 32 states leased to 31 tenants, plus 26 SHOP senior housing communities with 3,009 units operated by third-party managers. The portfolio comprised 110 senior housing properties, 65 skilled nursing facilities, and one hospital as of December 31, 2025. Rental income ($271.6 million, 72.3% of revenues), SHOP resident fees ($80.1 million, 21.3%), and interest and other income ($24.0 million, 6.4%) made up the revenue mix.

The company earns rental income through triple-net leases with initial terms of 10 to 15 years and one or more five-year renewal options; most leases include annual rent escalators recognized on a straight-line basis. Under the NNN structure, tenants pay taxes, utilities, insurance, and capital expenditures. The SHOP segment uses the RIDEA structure—NHI owns properties through consolidated partnerships (16 of 26 communities held in consolidated joint ventures) while third-party managers like Life Care Services operate them for a management fee. A $218.7 million note receivable portfolio, consisting of 11 mortgage loans at 7.3%–12.0%, nine mezzanine loans at 6.0%–10.0%, and four construction loans at 8.5%–9.0%, provides additional interest income and future acquisition optionality. NHI competes for healthcare real estate acquisitions with other REITs, private equity funds, banks, and insurance companies.

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Tenant credit concentration is the dominant balance-sheet risk for NHI's Real Estate Investments segment. The 10-K discloses that a small number of tenants account for a significant percentage of rental income, and a board-level conflict of interest is flagged through a director who also chairs National HealthCare Corporation's (NHC) board. In April 2026, NHI entered a Purchase and Sale Agreement for NHC to acquire 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities for $560 million—removing the NHC Master Lease from the portfolio and converting the company's largest tenant relationship into a one-time disposition that materially reshapes the Real Estate Investments segment.

See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

From National Health Investors, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Aug 6, 202652d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.4%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)23.3
P/E (Fwd)20.3
Mkt Cap$3.5B
EV/EBITDA17.2
Profit Mgn36.6%
ROE9.9%
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta0.55
Dividend5.10%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.17bullish
IV79%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -2.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.9
Earnings Growth
4.9
Declining revenue: -3%
GatesA.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 52d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $67.94Resistance $77.70

Price Targets

$67
$74
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.8 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (52d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $70.64, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $66.72. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NHI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $73.73 (+4.4% upside). Prior stop was $66.72. Stop-loss: $66.72.

What are the risks of investing in NHI?

Thin upside margin: 4.4%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak growth.

Is NHI overvalued or undervalued?

National Health Investors, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.3 (forward 20.3). TrendMatrix value score: 4.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NHI?

12 analysts cover NHI with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $85.

What does National Health Investors, Inc. do?National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties...

National Health Investors is a self-managed healthcare REIT with $2.7B in Real Estate Investments across 176 properties in 32 states leased via triple-net leases, plus a $634.3M SHOP segment of 26 senior housing communities. Total revenues were $375.6M in 2025, comprising 72.3% rental income, 21.3% resident fees, and 6.4% interest/other. NHI is selling 32 skilled nursing and 3 independent living facilities to NHC for $560M.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · SILA (Sila Realty Trust, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.)
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