Skip to main content

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away).

CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other healthcare properties in 32 states and the UK, leased to independent operators under triple-net leases. Revenue is primarily rental income; annualized... Read more

$41.50+2.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield9.91%
IncomeYield3.78%(5y avg 4.75%)Payout88.29%
Stop $39.19Target $42.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$43.64+5.1%11 analysts
$42.22our TP
$41.50price
$43.64mean
$40
$48

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 82d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — CareTrust REIT, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.9 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.2% away)
Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)26.1
P/E (Fwd)24.3
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA23.3
Profit Mgn64.1%
ROE9.4%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.79
Dividend3.78%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.12bullish
IV33%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMTenantEnsign23%
    10-K Item 1A: 'properties leased to Ensign and held for investment represented $92.1 million, or 23%, of total annualized contractual rental income'
  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, U.K., Texas, and Tennessee
    10-K Item 1A: 'concentration of our properties in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee as described in "Classification of properties in our Portfolio"'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
4.8
P/OCF: 23.6x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
3.3

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
3.5
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
6.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 82d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.91Resistance $43.08

Price Targets

$39
$42
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-10 (82d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $41.50 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $39.19. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $42.22 (+2.4% upside). Prior stop was $39.19. Stop-loss: $39.19.

What are the risks of investing in CTRE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.2% away); Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.

Is CTRE overvalued or undervalued?

CareTrust REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 26.1 (forward 24.3). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRE?

18 analysts cover CTRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $44.

What does CareTrust REIT, Inc. do?CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other...

CareTrust REIT is a self-administered REIT owning 407 skilled nursing facilities, senior housing communities, and other healthcare properties in 32 states and the UK, leased to independent operators under triple-net leases. Revenue is primarily rental income; annualized contractual rental income was approximately $400M+ as of year-end 2025 with 37,628 operational beds. Ensign Group is the largest tenant at 23% of annualized rental income.

Related stocks: OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc) · SBRA (Sabra Health Care REIT, Inc.) · MPT (Medical Properties Trust, Inc.) · AHR (American Healthcare REIT, Inc.) · VTR (Ventas, Inc.)