A healthcare REIT with genuinely exceptional quality — 9/9 Piotroski F-Score, 64% margins, and free cash flow at 288% of net income — is overshadowed by four consecutive earnings misses, weak single-digit growth, a dividend yield safety warning, and heavy bearish options positioning (put/call ratio of 2.44), leaving the overall setup cautious despite strong analyst conviction and oversold technicals.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Analyst Upside Conviction↓Deteriorating
- Exceptional Quality Cash Conversion→Stable
- Four Quarter Earnings Miss Streak↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Sell if holding. At $36.31, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2.
CareTrust REIT owns 407 SNFs and senior housing properties with 37,628 beds across 32 states and the U.K., concentrated by rental income in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. Revenue comes from triple-net leases to healthcare operators; Ensign accounts for 23% of... Read more
Sell if holding. At $36.31, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About CareTrust REIT, Inc.
About CareTrust REIT, Inc.
CareTrust REIT's 407 healthcare properties—skilled nursing and senior housing assets with 37,628 beds and units in 32 states and the U.K.—generated annualized contractual rental income with Ensign's master leases totaling $92.1 million, or 23% of the total, at December 31, 2025. Geographic concentrations by rental income are in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. Beyond owned properties, the company holds $899.3 million in mortgage-secured loans, mezzanine loans, and preferred equity investments.
CareTrust leases the majority of its portfolio under long-term triple-net arrangements, under which tenants pay all operating costs including insurance, taxes, maintenance, and capital expenditures. Ensign, the largest tenant with 113 properties, holds master leases with initial terms exceeding 10 years and three five-year renewal options; these leases contain cross-default provisions and are guaranteed by Ensign at the parent level. Ensign also guarantees the Pennant Master Lease, adding another 2% of annualized contractual rental income to the combined exposure. In December 2025, CareTrust established its first SHOP platform via three Texas senior housing communities managed by independent third-party operators under a RIDEA structure, directly participating in resident-fee revenue and operational costs.
Show full overview
Ensign's direct leases and Pennant guarantee together represent 25% of annualized contractual rental income, and CareTrust's 10-K warns that dependence on Ensign rental payments may limit the company's ability to enforce its rights under the master leases. If Ensign experienced a material adverse event—through Medicaid rate reductions, staffing shortages, or financial deterioration—rental income could decline materially. CareTrust monitors tenant EBITDAR and EBITDARM coverage ratios monthly but holds no contractual right to direct operational decisions at leased properties.
See also: Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities
From CareTrust REIT, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — CareTrust REIT, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sei Investments Co. Lowers Holdings in CareTrust REIT, Inc. $CTRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS CareTrust REIT (NYSE:CTRE) Reaches New 12-Month High - Should You Buy? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS CareTrust REIT Receives IBD Stock Rating Upgrade - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio Sells 50,103 Shares of CareTrust REIT, Inc. $CTRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Increases Stock Position in CareTrust REIT, Inc. $CTRE - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWTenantEnsign23%10-K Item 1A: 'properties leased to Ensign and held for investment represented $92.1 million, or 23%, of total annualized contractual rental income'
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, U.K., Texas, Tennessee10-K Item 1A: 'concentration of our properties in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $36.31, A.R:R 1.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2. Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $35.09. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $38.28 (+5.4% upside). Prior stop was $35.09. Stop-loss: $35.09.
Thin upside margin: 5.4%; Sector modifier (Real Estate): -1.2; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
CareTrust REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 22.7 (forward 20.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
19 analysts cover CTRE with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $44.
What does CareTrust REIT, Inc. do?CareTrust REIT owns 407 SNFs and senior housing properties with 37,628 beds across 32 states and the U.K., concentrated...
CareTrust REIT owns 407 SNFs and senior housing properties with 37,628 beds across 32 states and the U.K., concentrated by rental income in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. Revenue comes from triple-net leases to healthcare operators; Ensign accounts for 23% of annualized contractual rental income. The portfolio is supplemented by $899.3 million in secured loans, mezzanine loans, and preferred equity.