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CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Healthcare Facilities

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing and other healthcare-related properties. As of December 31, 2025, CareTrust REIT owned, directly or... Read more

$38.95+0.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#7 of 13 REIT - Healthcare Facilities
Stop $37.09Target $39.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$43.67+12.1%12 analysts
$39.29our TP
$38.95price
$43.67mean
$48

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.8
P/E (Fwd)22.9
Mkt Cap$8.7B
EV/EBITDA22.9
Profit Mgn67.3%
ROE9.2%
Rev Growth3.2%
Beta0.79
Dividend4.01%
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV45%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.0
Ev Ebitda
0.0
Analyst Target
4.0
P Ocf
5.0
P/OCF: 22.1x (FFO proxy — REITs gated off P/E)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
3.0
Revenue Growth
3.3
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.91Resistance $40.09

Price Targets

$37
$39
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.4% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $38.95 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $37.09. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CTRE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $39.29 (+0.9% upside). Prior stop was $37.09. Stop-loss: $37.09.

What are the risks of investing in CTRE?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is CTRE overvalued or undervalued?

CareTrust REIT, Inc. trades at a P/E of 24.8 (forward 22.9). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CTRE?

17 analysts cover CTRE with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $44.

What does CareTrust REIT, Inc. do?CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing,...

CareTrust REIT, Inc. is a self-administered, publicly traded REIT engaged in the ownership, acquisition, financing, development and leasing of skilled nursing, senior housing and other healthcare-related properties. As of December 31, 2025, CareTrust REIT owned, directly or indirectly in consolidated joint ventures, and leased to independent operators, 407 skilled nursing facilities (each, a SNF), senior housing communities and other properties consisting of 37,628 operational beds and units located in 32 states and the United Kingdom, with the highest concentration of properties by rental income located in California, the U.K., Texas, and Tennessee. As of December 31, 2025, we also had other real estate related investments consisting of four preferred equity investments, 16 real estate secured loans receivable and five mezzanine loans receivable with a carrying value of 899.3 million US dollars and one financing receivable with a carrying value of 92.2 million US dollars. CareTrust REIT, Inc. was established and incorporated on October 29, 2013 in Maryland, USA

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