Skip to main content

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $198.25: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (0.7% away).

National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living, homecare/hospice, and behavioral health services across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In fiscal 2025, 96.8% of net operating revenues came from... Read more

$198.25-1.3% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#25 of 27 Medical Care Facilities
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.92%
IncomeYield1.34%(5y avg 2.77%)Payout32.53%sustainable
Stop $184.81Target $195.63(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $198.25: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — National HealthCare Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak)
Near 52-week high (0.7% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.6
P/E (Fwd)450.3
Mkt Cap$3.0B
EV/EBITDA16.0
Profit Mgn8.1%
ROE12.0%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta0.65
Dividend1.34%
Rating analysts

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
1.5
Quality Rank
5.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Earnings concerns: 0B/4MDividend: 134.0%

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.0
Earnings Growth
3.9

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.3
Bollinger
0.8
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)Momentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $157.28Resistance $199.62

Price Targets

$185
$196
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 450x vs trail 25x (18.3x)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $198.25: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (0.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $184.81. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the NHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $195.63 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $184.81. Stop-loss: $184.81.

What are the risks of investing in NHC?

Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); Near 52-week high (0.7% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).

Is NHC overvalued or undervalued?

National HealthCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.6 (forward 450.3). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does National HealthCare Corporation do?National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living,...

National HealthCare Corporation operates skilled nursing facilities, assisted living, independent living, homecare/hospice, and behavioral health services across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In fiscal 2025, 96.8% of net operating revenues came from healthcare services; Medicare provided 31% and Medicaid 30% of net patient revenues. The company is purchasing 32 skilled nursing and 3 independent living facilities from NHI for $560M, resolving a disputed Master Lease.

Related stocks: AVAH (Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc) · ASTH (Astrana Health Inc.) · CON (Concentra Group Holdings Parent) · EHC (Encompass Health Corporation) · UHS (Universal Health Services, Inc.)