National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $171.50: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak).
National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living, 9 independent living, 3 behavioral health hospitals, and 67 homecare/hospice agencies in 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest US. Net patient revenues represent 96.8% of... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $171.50: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSupplierNational Health Investors master lease10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our skilled nursing and independent living facilities are subject to a long-term Master Agreement to Lease with National Health Investors, Inc.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 1.01MEDIUMNHC/OP L.P. entered Purchase and Sale Agreement with NHI on April 21, 2026 to acquire 32 SNFs and 3 ILFs currently under the Master Lease for $560 million; no financing contingencies.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOWNHC Board appointed Dr. David Gifford and Andrew Adams as directors effective February 12, 2026, expanding Board to 9 directors. No predecessor departures cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $171.50: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $159.28. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $180.40 (+5.3% upside). Prior stop was $159.28. Stop-loss: $159.28.
Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5.
National HealthCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 407.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does National HealthCare Corporation do?National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living, 9 independent living, 3...
National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living, 9 independent living, 3 behavioral health hospitals, and 67 homecare/hospice agencies in 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest US. Net patient revenues represent 96.8% of operating revenues, with Medicare, Medicaid, and private pay as key sources.