National HealthCare Corporation is a medical care facilities operator with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 and solid free cash flow quality, but cyclical earnings risk is extreme — the forward P/E stands at 455x versus trailing 25x, implying a near-total earnings collapse ahead — making this a hold-only situation at current near-52-week-high prices.
Thesis pillars
- Cyclical Earnings Collapse Risk↓Deteriorating
- Piotroski Fcf Balance Sheet→Stable
- Earnings Miss History→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Analysis
Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $212.40: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).
National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living facilities, 34 homecare agencies, and 33 hospice locations across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In 2025, patient care services generated 96.8% of net operating... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $212.40: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About National HealthCare Corporation
About National HealthCare Corporation
National HealthCare Corporation ran 80 skilled nursing facilities with 10,329 licensed beds, 26 assisted living facilities, 33 hospice agencies, and 34 homecare agencies across 9 states as of December 31, 2025—a post-acute and senior-care continuum primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. Overall occupancy at owned and leased SNFs reached 89.7% in 2025, up from 88.6% in 2024. Medicare and Medicaid together accounted for 61% of net patient revenues, with 62.5% of NHC's facilities rated 4 or 5 stars under CMS's Five-Star system versus a 38.6% industry average.
NHC earns revenue primarily through per-day Medicare payments under the Patient-Driven Payment Model (PDPM), which classifies patients by clinical diagnosis rather than therapy volume, alongside Medicaid cost-based reimbursements that vary by state and private-pay and managed care contracts. In fiscal 2025, 31% of net patient revenues came from Medicare, 30% from Medicaid, 12% from managed care, and 27% from private pay and other sources. Hospice and homecare segments—including wholly owned subsidiary Caris Healthcare operating 33 locations in Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia—receive Medicare per-diem or per-visit payments. NHC also generates 3.2% of net operating revenues from management, accounting, and insurance services to third-party operators at a 6% fee-of-revenue rate. Competition comes from not-for-profit operators with tax-exempt capital access and from larger for-profit chains.
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The most immediate structural risk in NHC's operating model through 2025 was its Master Agreement to Lease with National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI), under which a significant portion of skilled nursing and independent living facilities were leased. NHI formally alleged non-compliance with four non-monetary lease provisions in September 2025, threatening termination. In April 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K an agreement to purchase 32 skilled nursing facilities and three independent living facilities from NHI for $560 million, financed in part through a $475 million senior unsecured term loan with Bank of America, effectively converting the lease-default overhang into owned real estate.
See also: Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities
From National HealthCare Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 1, 2026Recent Developments — National HealthCare Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS NHC Foods sets Sept 25 for 34th AGM; book closure from Sept 19 - scanx.trade — scanx.trade Nov 1, 2026 neutral
- NEWS National Presto Industries (NPK) Stock May Be Near Fair Value On Cash Flow - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 30, 2026 neutral
- NEWS NHC Foods Ltd is Rated Hold by MarketsMOJO - MarketsMojo — MarketsMojo Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Slips to $210.28 as Shares Ease 0.72% - Earnings Sentiment - https://www.dars.gov. — https://www.dars.gov.et/ Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS National HealthCare Drops 5.2% Amid Sector-Wide Selling - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 1, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicare31%10-K Item 1: 'Medicare ... 31%'
- MEDIUMCustomerMedicaid30%10-K Item 1: 'Medicaid ... 30%'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNational Health Investors (NHI)10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our skilled nursing and independent living facilities are subject to a long-term Master Agreement to Lease with National Health Investors, Inc.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 1.01MEDIUMNHC entered Purchase and Sale Agreement with NHI to acquire 32 SNFs and 3 ILFs in AL, FL, KY, MO, SC, TN, and VA for $560M purchase price, currently leased under the Master Lease. No financing contingencies.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-22Item 1.02MEDIUMMaster Agreement to Lease with NHI to be terminated upon closing of the $560M facility acquisition by NHC/OP, L.P. Resolves September 2025 default dispute.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-27Item 1.01MEDIUMNHC entered $475M senior unsecured term loan and $50M revolving credit facility with Bank of America to fund the $560M NHI property acquisition, maturing 5 years from funding date.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-27Item 1.02MEDIUMMaster Lease with NHI modified and to be terminated upon closing of the NHI facility purchase. Closing conditioned on funding of new credit facility.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $212.40: Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $197.53. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Resistance target: $243.24 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $197.53. Stop-loss: $197.53.
Earnings expected to decline ~95% (cyclical peak); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4); Expensive valuation.
National HealthCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 23.9 (forward 494.0). TrendMatrix value score: 2.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
What does National HealthCare Corporation do?National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living facilities, 34 homecare...
National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living facilities, 34 homecare agencies, and 33 hospice locations across 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest. In 2025, patient care services generated 96.8% of net operating revenues, with Medicare (31%), Medicaid (30%), and managed care/private pay (39%) as payer sources.