National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the NHC stock price target?

Take-profit $180.40 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $159.00.

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Healthcare · Medical Care Facilities

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $170.97: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak).

National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living, 9 independent living, 3 behavioral health hospitals, and 67 homecare/hospice agencies in 9 states, primarily in the Southeast and Midwest US. Net patient revenues represent 96.8% of... Read more

$170.97+5.5% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#21 of 27 Medical Care Facilities

Stop $159.00Target $180.40(resistance)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $170.97: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards

No bull case signals

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease

Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak)

Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)22.8

P/E (Fwd)407.1

Mkt Cap$2.7B

EV/EBITDA14.8

Profit Mgn7.9%

ROE11.9%

Rev Growth4.6%

Beta0.59

Dividend1.46%

Rating analysts—

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.03bullish

IV41%normal

Max Pain$155-9.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSupplierNational Health Investors master lease
10-K Item 1A: 'A significant portion of our skilled nursing and independent living facilities are subject to a long-term Master Agreement to Lease with National Health Investors, Inc.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-22Item 1.01MEDIUM
NHC/OP L.P. entered Purchase and Sale Agreement with NHI on April 21, 2026 to acquire 32 SNFs and 3 ILFs currently under the Master Lease for $560 million; no financing contingencies.
SEC filing →
2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
NHC Board appointed Dr. David Gifford and Andrew Adams as directors effective February 12, 2026, expanding Board to 9 directors. No predecessor departures cited.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value5.815%0.87

Quality5.115%0.76

Growth3.715%0.56

Momentum6.910%0.69

Sentiment5.010%0.50

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank2.810%0.28

Technical Setup5.75%0.29

Risk Profile5.35%0.27

Catalyst3.85%0.19

Overall (Σ contributions)4.90

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank

2.4

Growth Rank

3.1

Quality Rank

5.8

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth

3.7

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History

0.0

Surprise Avg

0.0

Earnings Timing

5.0

Dividend

10.0

Earnings concerns: 0B/4MEarnings in 8 daysDividend: 146.0%

GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive

RSI

50 · Neutral

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $154.91Resistance $184.08

Price Targets

$159

$180

A.Upside+5.5%

A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 407x vs trail 23x (17.8x)

Earnings

0/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-08 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NHC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $170.97: Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 50, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $159.00. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the NHC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.40 (+5.5% upside). Prior stop was $159.00. Stop-loss: $159.00.

What are the risks of investing in NHC?

Concentration risk — Supplier: National Health Investors master lease; Earnings expected to decline ~94% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 8.1): -1.5.

Is NHC overvalued or undervalued?

National HealthCare Corporation trades at a P/E of 22.8 (forward 407.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What does National HealthCare Corporation do?National HealthCare Corporation operates 80 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living, 9 independent living, 3...