Value
4.8/10data confidence 60%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.6 |
| P/S | 8.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.0 |
NHC · Why this verdict
Why National HealthCare (NHC) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.4/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The forward P/E of 455x versus the trailing P/E of 25x implies analysts forecast earnings to decline by approximately 95% from their current level, representing one of the starkest cyclical trap warnings in the screening universe. Bear case | Earnings do not decline as severely as forecasts suggest, and forward P/E compresses below 50x within 12 months through actual earnings delivery above consensus. | →Stable |
| CounterA dramatic forward earnings decline may reflect known one-time items in trailing results, and normalized earnings power could be considerably higher than the forward consensus indicates. | ||
Despite cyclical earnings risk, National HealthCare scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale and generates a FCF quality score of 6.8, indicating broad balance-sheet health and reasonable cash conversion quality. Quality breakdown | Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above and free cash flow quality score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong Piotroski score based on historical financials may not fully reflect forward earnings deterioration; historical strength does not guarantee future resilience through a cyclical down period. | ||
Historical earnings data shows the company missed estimates in all 4 available prior quarterly comparisons with an average negative surprise of -9%, suggesting a pattern of disappointing relative to analyst forecasts. Earnings | The company meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy. | →Stable |
| CounterEarnings miss patterns in healthcare operators can reflect conservative analyst modeling rather than actual underperformance, particularly in businesses with stable government reimbursement contracts. | ||
The stock is trading within 5% of its 52-week high with a golden cross technical setup and MACD bullish, but volume distribution is falling — suggesting weakening institutional participation at elevated price levels near the high. Momentum breakdown | Price sustains above $185 over the next 3 months and volume distribution reverses to net accumulation. | →Stable |
| CounterNear-52-week-high setups in healthcare utilities can signal continued momentum rather than distribution, particularly when macro conditions favor defensive sectors. | ||
The forward P/E of 455x versus the trailing P/E of 25x implies analysts forecast earnings to decline by approximately 95% from their current level, representing one of the starkest cyclical trap warnings in the screening universe.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Earnings do not decline as severely as forecasts suggest, and forward P/E compresses below 50x within 12 months through actual earnings delivery above consensus.
CounterA dramatic forward earnings decline may reflect known one-time items in trailing results, and normalized earnings power could be considerably higher than the forward consensus indicates.
Despite cyclical earnings risk, National HealthCare scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale and generates a FCF quality score of 6.8, indicating broad balance-sheet health and reasonable cash conversion quality.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Piotroski F-Score remains at 7 or above and free cash flow quality score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterA strong Piotroski score based on historical financials may not fully reflect forward earnings deterioration; historical strength does not guarantee future resilience through a cyclical down period.
Historical earnings data shows the company missed estimates in all 4 available prior quarterly comparisons with an average negative surprise of -9%, suggesting a pattern of disappointing relative to analyst forecasts.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company meets or beats consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, demonstrating improved forecasting accuracy.
CounterEarnings miss patterns in healthcare operators can reflect conservative analyst modeling rather than actual underperformance, particularly in businesses with stable government reimbursement contracts.
The stock is trading within 5% of its 52-week high with a golden cross technical setup and MACD bullish, but volume distribution is falling — suggesting weakening institutional participation at elevated price levels near the high.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price sustains above $185 over the next 3 months and volume distribution reverses to net accumulation.
CounterNear-52-week-high setups in healthcare utilities can signal continued momentum rather than distribution, particularly when macro conditions favor defensive sectors.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
National HealthCare Corporation is a medical care facilities operator with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 8 and solid free cash flow quality, but cyclical earnings risk is extreme — the forward P/E stands at 455x versus trailing 25x, implying a near-total earnings collapse ahead — making this a hold-only situation at current near-52-week-high prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.0 |
| ROA | 3.5 |
| Gross margin | 3.8 |
| Op margin | 3.4 |
| Net margin | 4.1 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 6.8 |
| Moat | 5.0 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.0 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
6.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 74)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
Insider
4.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 3.2 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $3,154,112 (0.092% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
2.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.6 |
| quality rank | 6.1 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.4 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.8 |
| days to cover | 5.8 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 4.4 |
| implied vol | 5.2 |
| beta | 9.2 |
| debt equity | 1.4 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 3 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
2.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 0B/4M
- ▸Dividend: 119.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:31d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- ASYMMETRY:UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)
- 8K_FLAG:1.02,1.02
Reward-to-Risk
0.00
Upside
+0.0%
Downside
14.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.4B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 6.8) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.00 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 6.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.4, and Quality at 5.1; the weakest are Peer rank at 2.4, Catalyst at 2.5, and Growth at 3.5. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.00 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Cyclical Earnings Collapse Risk
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 600x or annual EPS declines more than 70% from the most recently reported trailing figure.
- P2Piotroski Fcf Balance Sheet
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 6 or free cash flow quality score drops below 4.0.
- P3Earnings Miss History
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -15% in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters.
- P4Near High Momentum Setup
Trip ifPrice drops below $183 stop-loss level or on-balance volume declines for more than 6 consecutive weeks.