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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as... Read more

$87.61+20.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.91%
Stop $83.02Target $105.39(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 3.7:1
Analyst target$114.56+30.8%44 analysts
$105.39our TP
$87.61price
$114.56mean
$80
$151

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.30, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.70, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val5.0Qual8.5Grw8.3Mom4.5Sent7.4Ins3.9Peer5.7Tech5.7Risk6.16.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — Netflix, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.5 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)28.8
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$376.2B
EV/EBITDA26.6
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE48.5%
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.55
DividendNone
Rating analysts59

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C1.45bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$40-54.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 20 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-27Item 1.02MEDIUM
    As previously disclosed, on January 19, 2026, Netflix, Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Netflix"), Nightingale Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Netflix ("Merger Sub"), Warner Bros.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 4.5<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.5>=4.5A.R:R 3.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.70EARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $85.10Resistance $94.70

Price Targets

$83
$105
A.Upside+20.3%
A.R:R3.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFLX stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $87.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.30, quality 8.5/10, growth 8.3/10). | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $105.39 (+20.3%), stop $83.02 (−5.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.39 (+20.1% upside). Target $105.39 (+20.3%), stop $83.02 (−5.5%), A.R:R 3.7:1. Stop-loss: $83.02.

What are the risks of investing in NFLX?

Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

Netflix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 28.8 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NFLX?

59 analysts cover NFLX with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $115.

What does Netflix, Inc. do?Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment...

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, and can change their plans at any time.

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