Skip to main content

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as... Read more

$92.28+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#5 of 27 Entertainment
Stop $87.32Target $105.48(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$114.66+24.2%44 analysts
$105.48our TP
$92.28price
$114.66mean
$80
$151

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val4.4Qual8.2Grw8.3Mom1.0Sent7.1Ins3.8Peer6.2Tech6.6Risk6.05.8OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.7
P/E (Fwd)24.0
Mkt Cap$387.9B
EV/EBITDA27.5
Profit Mgn28.5%
ROE48.5%
Rev Growth16.2%
Beta1.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts59

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.14bearish
IV43%normal
Max Pain$40-56.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-16Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 10, 20 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-27Item 1.02MEDIUM
    As previously disclosed, on January 19, 2026, Netflix, Inc., a Delaware corporation ("Netflix"), Nightingale Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned subsidiary of Netflix ("Merger Sub"), Warner Bros.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 28, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 1.0<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $90.02Resistance $108.94

Price Targets

$87
$105
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-16 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFLX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $92.28 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 28, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $87.32. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFLX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.48 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $87.32. Stop-loss: $87.32.

What are the risks of investing in NFLX?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFLX overvalued or undervalued?

Netflix, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.7 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 4.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NFLX?

59 analysts cover NFLX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $115.

What does Netflix, Inc. do?Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment...

Netflix, Inc. ("Netflix", the "Company", "registrant", "we", or "us") is one of the world's leading entertainment services offering TV series, films, games and live programming across a wide variety of genres and languages. Members can play, pause and resume watching as much as they want, anytime, anywhere, and can change their plans at any time.

Related stocks: DIS (Walt Disney Company (The)) · WBD (Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. - ) · APP (Applovin Corporation) · NTES (NetEase, Inc.) · META (Meta Platforms, Inc.)