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Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

$104.11+13.2% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#18 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.08%
IncomeYield1.44%(5y avg 1.38%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Stop $98.37Target $117.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1
Analyst target$130.67+25.5%29 analysts
$117.60our TP
$104.11price
$130.67mean
$77
$164

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Walt Disney Company (The)

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.7
P/E (Fwd)13.9
Mkt Cap$180.4B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.42
Dividend1.44%
Rating analysts37

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.55bullish
IV35%normal
Max Pain$65-37.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit Number | | Description 99.1 | | [Press Release dated February 24, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448926000025/fy2026_q2xxneodeparturepre.htm) 104 | | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) * * * Signatures Pursuant to the ...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.1

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Volume
3.4
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.3%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $100.06Resistance $110.48

Price Targets

$98
$118
A.Upside+13.0%
A.R:R2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DIS stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $104.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 55 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $98.37. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the DIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $117.60 (+13.2% upside). Prior stop was $98.37. Stop-loss: $98.37.

What are the risks of investing in DIS?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth.

Is DIS overvalued or undervalued?

Walt Disney Company (The) trades at a P/E of 16.7 (forward 13.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DIS?

37 analysts cover DIS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $131.

What does Walt Disney Company (The) do?The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a...

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

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