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DISWalt Disney Company (The)Hold5.0·$99.41+0.55%
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Walt Disney Company (The) (DIS) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldHigh Confidence

Communication Services · Entertainment

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8.

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

$99.41+17.3% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#18 of 28 Entertainment
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.18%
IncomeYield1.52%(5y avg 1.38%)Payout20.00%sustainable
Stop $95.51Target $116.70(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$129.67+30.4%29 analysts
$116.70our TP
$99.41price
$129.67mean
$77
$164

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 57d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 5, 202657d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.80)
Attractive valuation
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.8
P/E (Fwd)13.2
Mkt Cap$171.7B
EV/EBITDA11.2
Profit Mgn11.5%
ROE11.0%
Rev Growth6.5%
Beta1.39
Dividend1.52%
Rating analysts36

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.03bearish
IV37%normal
Max Pain$75-24.6% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    [... truncated]
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-24Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Exhibit Number | | Description 99.1 | | [Press Release dated February 24, 2026.](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1744489/000174448926000025/fy2026_q2xxneodeparturepre.htm) 104 | | Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) * * * Signatures Pursuant to the ...
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.4
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.1
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 57d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.41Resistance $106.29

Price Targets

$96
$117
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 1.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (57d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DIS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $99.41, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 39, MACD bearish. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $116.70 (+17.4%), stop $95.51 (−4.1%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the DIS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $116.70 (+17.3% upside). Target $116.70 (+17.4%), stop $95.51 (−4.1%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $95.51.

What are the risks of investing in DIS?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Communication Services): -0.8; Weak growth.

Is DIS overvalued or undervalued?

Walt Disney Company (The) trades at a P/E of 15.8 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DIS?

36 analysts cover DIS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $130.

What does Walt Disney Company (The) do?The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a...

The Walt Disney Company, together with the subsidiaries through which businesses are conducted (the Company), is a diversified worldwide entertainment company with operations in three segments: Entertainment, Sports and Experiences.

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