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Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $107.31. Engine's entry $104.59 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1.

Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, operating 13 mining segments across the U.S., Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, and other jurisdictions with 118.2M attributable proven/probable gold reserves. Gold represented 85% of 2025 Sales;... Read more

$107.31+21.8% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#9 of 32 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.74%
IncomeYield0.99%(5y avg 3.17%)Payout13.10%sustainable
Entry $104.59(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $95.51Target $129.61(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.5:1Setup A.R:R 4.3:1
Analyst target$144.01+34.2%20 analysts
$129.61our TP
$107.31price
$144.01mean
$72
$176

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $107.31. Engine's entry $104.59 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: conservative.

Recent Developments — Newmont Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 28, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Francois Hardy, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, will retire effective June 30, 2026 after ~24 years. Erin Workman named acting CTO from May 2026. Structured search underway for permanent successor.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=9.3 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%)
Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)9.3
Mkt Cap$112.2B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE25.8%
Rev Growth45.8%
Beta0.45
Dividend0.99%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.83neutral
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditygold85%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024 and 2023, 85%, 85% and 89%, respectively, of our Sales were attributable to gold.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-28Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Francois Hardy, EVP and Chief Technical Officer, will retire effective June 30, 2026 after ~24 years. Erin Workman named acting CTO from May 2026. Structured search underway for permanent successor.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
6.2
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
45 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $104.13Resistance $121.26

Price Targets

$96
$105
$130
A.Upside+20.8%
A.R:R2.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $104.59. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $107.31. Engine's entry $104.59 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Wide-moat business. Accumulate on weakness. Target $129.61 (+20.8%), stop $95.51 (−12.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $129.61 (+21.8% upside). Target $129.61 (+20.8%), stop $95.51 (−12.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.3:1. Stop-loss: $95.51.

What are the risks of investing in NEM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: gold (85.0%); Sector modifier (Basic Materials): -0.1; Negative momentum.

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued?

Newmont Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NEM?

30 analysts cover NEM with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Newmont Corporation do?Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, operating 13 mining segments across the U.S., Papua New...

Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, operating 13 mining segments across the U.S., Papua New Guinea, Australia, Ghana, Suriname, Argentina, and other jurisdictions with 118.2M attributable proven/probable gold reserves. Gold represented 85% of 2025 Sales; copper, silver, lead, and zinc are co-products at Cadia, Boddington, Peñasquito, and Red Chris.

Related stocks: GFI (Gold Fields Limited) · AEM (Agnico Eagle Mines Limited) · KGC (Kinross Gold Corporation) · B (Barrick Mining Corporation) · AGI (Alamos Gold Inc.)