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Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $107.65. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $111.09. Engine's entry $107.65 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold; Negative momentum.

Newmont is a gold producer with operations across 12+ countries including the US, Australia, Ghana, Papua New Guinea, Suriname, and South America, producing 5.53 million consolidated gold ounces from continuing operations in 2025. Gold accounts for 85% of Sales, with copper,... Read more

$111.09+18.6% A.UpsideScore 6.8/10#4 of 32 Gold
Entry $107.65(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $98.12Target $129.56(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1Setup A.R:R 3.6:1
Analyst target$143.96+29.6%20 analysts
$129.56our TP
$111.09price
$143.96mean
$72
$176

Wait for pullback to $107.65. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $111.09. Engine's entry $107.65 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 84d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: conservative.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.73)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: gold
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.0
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$114.9B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn33.9%
ROE25.8%
Rev Growth45.8%
Beta0.47
Dividend0.97%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.84neutral
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditygold
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial or extended decline in gold, copper, silver, lead or zinc prices would have a material adverse effect on us.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
6.0
Quality Rank
6.6
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 84d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Conservative
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $106.87Resistance $122.00

Price Targets

$98
$108
$130
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R2.0:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (84d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NEM stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $107.65. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $111.09. Engine's entry $107.65 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Commodity: gold; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $129.56 (+16.6%), stop $98.12 (−13.2%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Score 6.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NEM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $129.56 (+18.6% upside). Target $129.56 (+16.6%), stop $98.12 (−13.2%), Setup A.R:R 3.6:1. Stop-loss: $98.12.

What are the risks of investing in NEM?

Concentration risk — Commodity: gold; Negative momentum.

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued?

Newmont Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.0 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NEM?

29 analysts cover NEM with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $144.

What does Newmont Corporation do?Newmont is a gold producer with operations across 12+ countries including the US, Australia, Ghana, Papua New Guinea,...

Newmont is a gold producer with operations across 12+ countries including the US, Australia, Ghana, Papua New Guinea, Suriname, and South America, producing 5.53 million consolidated gold ounces from continuing operations in 2025. Gold accounts for 85% of Sales, with copper, silver, lead, and zinc as byproducts; the company divested six non-core assets in 2024–2025.

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