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MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,Hold6.6·$21.97
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is in a technical breakout with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and an average upside surprise of 26.5%, but the stock has moved above its resistance target and carries a negative asymmetry ratio, limiting appeal for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Resistance Negative Asymmetry→Stable
  • Weak Balance Sheet Quality→Stable
  • Strong Earnings Beat Record↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (MUFG) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business;... Read more

$21.97-8.1% A.UpsideScore 6.6/10#1 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.45%(5y avg 3.01%)Payout34.74%sustainable
Stop $21.09Analyst target $20.20(reached)A.R:R -1.6:1
Analyst consensus$23.77+8.2%2 analysts with price targets
$21.97price
$23.77mean
$21
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,

Latest news

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 13, 20268d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)21.3
Mkt Cap$247.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta0.35
Dividend2.45%
Analysts with ratings16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.22bullish
IV51%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.6=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 8d<=14d (soft)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $20.85Resistance $22.68

Price Targets

A.Upside-8.1%
A.R:R-1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-13 (8d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.97, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $20.20 reached (−8.1%), stop $21.09 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Score 6.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUFG stock price target?

Analyst target $20.20 reached (−8.1% from $21.97); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $20.20 reached (−8.1%), stop $21.09 (−4.2%), A.R:R -1.6:1. Stop-loss: $21.09.

What are the risks of investing in MUFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Is MUFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 21.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MUFG?

16 analysts rate MUFG, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 2 analysts publish price targets averaging $24.

What does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, do?Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services...

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business; Corporate and Wealth Management Business; Corporate Banking Business; Global Commercial Banking Business; Asset Management Business; Global CIB Business; and Market Business. The company offers retail, commercial, digital, corporate, and investment banking; wealth management; loans; settlement services; merger and acquisition; asset management; investor services; pensions; consulting services; bonds; forex and derivatives; equities; market trading; liabilities; treasury and other related operations; and liquidity and cash flow management services. It is also involved in trust banking; securities; leasing; venture capital; renewable energy; factoring; research; software development; information processing and technology; SR and IR support; investment trust and real estate asset management; investment advising; real estate brokering; credit solution business; credit and prepaid cards; loan guarantees; agency services for credit purchases; and servicer activities. The company was formerly known as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and changed its name to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. in October 2005. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

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