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MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,Hold6.5·$21.86
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group is in a technical breakout with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats and an average upside surprise of 26.5%, but the stock has moved above its resistance target and carries a negative asymmetry ratio, limiting appeal for new positions.

Thesis pillars

  • Price Above Resistance Negative Asymmetry→Stable
  • Weak Balance Sheet Quality→Stable
  • Strong Earnings Beat Record→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, (MUFG) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2).

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business;... Read more

$21.86-13.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.47%(5y avg 3.03%)Payout34.74%sustainable
Stop $20.96Target $23.12(resistance)A.R:R -2.7:1
Analyst target$22.27+1.9%2 analysts
$23.12our TP
$21.86price
$22.27mean
$18
$27

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-16

Recent Developments — Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,

Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Nov 13, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.3
P/E (Fwd)21.2
Mkt Cap$246.1B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE9.5%
Rev Growth28.8%
Beta0.35
Dividend2.47%
Rating analysts18

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$13-42.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
1.3
Volume
3.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.5
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 22)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -2.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
22 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $21.61Resistance $23.59

Price Targets

$21
$23
A.Upside-13.4%
A.R:R-2.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.4% upside)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-13 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUFG stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $21.86, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $23.12 (+5.8%), stop $20.96 (−4.3%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MUFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $23.12 (-13.4% upside). Target $23.12 (+5.8%), stop $20.96 (−4.3%), A.R:R -2.7:1. Stop-loss: $20.96.

What are the risks of investing in MUFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.2); Negative momentum.

Is MUFG overvalued or undervalued?

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, trades at a P/E of 14.3 (forward 21.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MUFG?

18 analysts cover MUFG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $22.

What does Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, do?Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services...

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Japan, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through seven segments: Retail and Digital Business; Corporate and Wealth Management Business; Corporate Banking Business; Global Commercial Banking Business; Asset Management Business; Global CIB Business; and Market Business. The company offers retail, commercial, digital, corporate, and investment banking; wealth management; loans; settlement services; merger and acquisition; asset management; investor services; pensions; consulting services; bonds; forex and derivatives; equities; market trading; liabilities; treasury and other related operations; and liquidity and cash flow management services. It is also involved in trust banking; securities; leasing; venture capital; renewable energy; factoring; research; software development; information processing and technology; SR and IR support; investment trust and real estate asset management; investment advising; real estate brokering; credit solution business; credit and prepaid cards; loan guarantees; agency services for credit purchases; and servicer activities. The company was formerly known as Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. and changed its name to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. in October 2005. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1880 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

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