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BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya ArgentariaSell6.1·$25.47
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

BBVA is a cheap, high-quality diversified bank (forward P/E about 9x, strong margins) but the stock already trades 4.2% above the analyst target and momentum is weak, so it suits holding rather than adding.

Thesis pillars

  • Low Forward Valuation→Stable
  • Strong Quality Margins→Stable
  • Mixed Earnings Record↓Deteriorating
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also... Read more

$25.47-6.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#4 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield4.42%(5y avg 4.14%)Payout47.61%sustainable
Stop $24.09Analyst target $23.83(reached)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst consensus$28.03+10.1%3 analysts with price targets
$25.47price
$28.03mean
$30

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Oct 28, 2026

Recent Developments — Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:06Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Feb 4, 202791d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$140.1B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn32.6%
ROE19.8%
Rev Growth18.4%
Beta0.82
Dividend4.42%
Analysts with ratings30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV42%normal
Max Pain$20-21.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
46 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $23.25Resistance $26.25

Price Targets

A.Upside-6.5%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.5% upside)
! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2027-02-04 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BBVA stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $25.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $24.09. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BBVA stock price target?

Analyst target $23.83 reached (−6.5% from $25.47); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $24.09. Stop-loss: $24.09.

What are the risks of investing in BBVA?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is BBVA overvalued or undervalued?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BBVA?

30 analysts rate BBVA, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $28.

What does Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria do?Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain,...

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial services in Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, Europe, the United States, and Asia. The company offers traditional retail, wholesale, investment, and transaction banking. It also engages in financial, insurance, asset management, and capital markets businesses, as well as digital banking. The company was formerly known as Banco Bilbao Vizcaya, S.A. and changed its name to Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. in January 2000. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. was founded in 1857 and is headquartered in Bilbao, Spain.

Related stocks: MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · C (Citigroup, Inc.) · SMFG (Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group) · BNY (The Bank of New York Mellon Cor) · HSBC (HSBC Holdings, plc.)
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