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Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $104.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$104.31+0.5% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#3 of 19 Banks - Diversified
Stop $101.57Target $104.80(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$98.76-5.3%3 analysts
$104.80our TP
$104.31price
$98.76mean
$84
$110

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $104.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (2.5% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)13.7
Mkt Cap$174.9B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn33.0%
ROE17.8%
Rev Growth21.1%
Beta0.84
Dividend3.00%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.37bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$48-54.5% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesA.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 4.9<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.9>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
70 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $92.47Resistance $106.94

Price Targets

$102
$105
A.Upside+0.5%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.5% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-28 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $104.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $104.80 (+0.5%), stop $101.57 (−2.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $104.80 (+0.5% upside). Target $104.80 (+0.5%), stop $101.57 (−2.7%), A.R:R -1.7:1. Stop-loss: $101.57.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (2.5% away).

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts cover TD with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $99.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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