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TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Hold5.9·$128.20
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Toronto-Dominion Bank offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, with three of four recent earnings beats and rising earnings estimates, but revenue declined 32% year-over-year and the analyst target has been exceeded, leaving little room for near-term price appreciation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings Beat→Stable
  • Revenue Decline Headwind→Stable
  • Recent Earnings Momentum→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldGrowthAI GATE: FLAGGED — 1 risk, 1 concernModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away).

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$128.20-19.0% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#7 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield2.50%(5y avg 3.94%)Payout46.36%sustainable
Stop $124.14Analyst target $103.78(reached)A.R:R -1.5:1
Analyst consensus$122.10-4.8%3 analysts with price targets
$128.20price
$122.10mean
$97
$138

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 28d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated Nov 4, 2026

Recent Developments — Toronto Dominion Bank (The)

Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:44:09Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202628d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.3% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)16.1
Mkt Cap$209.4B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn26.6%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta0.87
Dividend2.50%
Analysts with ratings23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.29bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$145+13.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Llm Sentiment
2.4
Price Target
4.3
Analyst Rating
5.0
LLM news sentiment: -0.52 (n=2)
GatesA.R:R -1.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 28d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
76 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $112.00Resistance $128.53

Price Targets

A.Upside-19.0%
A.R:R-1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-19.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! News gate: flagged (1 risks, 1 concerns)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (28d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $128.20, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $103.78 reached (−19.0%), stop $124.14 (−3.3%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Analyst target $103.78 reached (−19.0% from $128.20); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $103.78 reached (−19.0%), stop $124.14 (−3.3%), A.R:R -1.5:1. Stop-loss: $124.14.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.3% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 16.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts rate TD, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 3 analysts publish price targets averaging $122.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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