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TDToronto Dominion Bank (The)Hold5.8·$121.63-1.36%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Toronto-Dominion Bank offers attractive valuation at a forward price-to-earnings of 15.3 times and a price-to-earnings growth ratio of 0.59, with three of four recent earnings beats and rising earnings estimates, but revenue declined 32% year-over-year and the analyst target has been exceeded, leaving little room for near-term price appreciation.

Thesis pillars

  • Attractive Valuation With Earnings BeatImproving
  • Revenue Decline HeadwindImproving
  • Recent Earnings MomentumImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) (TD) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldGrowthModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Diversified

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away).

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and... Read more

$121.63-14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#9 of 20 Banks - Diversified
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.62%(5y avg 4.14%)Payout46.36%sustainable
Stop $116.81Target $139.87(default +15%)A.R:R -2.6:1
Analyst target$123.13+1.2%3 analysts
$139.87our TP
$121.63price
$123.13mean
$98
$140

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and news soft leadership change. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Dec 3, 202688d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.1% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.3
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$199.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn26.6%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta0.87
Dividend2.62%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.18bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$170+39.8% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.5
Quality Rank
3.4
Value Rank
4.0
GatesA.R:R -2.6=NEGATIVENEWS SOFT LEADERSHIP CHANGEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 88d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $115.12Resistance $125.47

Price Targets

$117
$140
A.Upside-14.0%
A.R:R-2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! NEWS_SOFT:LEADERSHIP_CHANGE

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-12-03 (88d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $121.63, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away). Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $139.87 (+15.0%), stop $116.81 (−4.1%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $139.87 (-14.0% upside). Target $139.87 (+15.0%), stop $116.81 (−4.1%), A.R:R -2.6:1. Stop-loss: $116.81.

What are the risks of investing in TD?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.1% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.0).

Is TD overvalued or undervalued?

Toronto Dominion Bank (The) trades at a P/E of 18.3 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TD?

23 analysts cover TD with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $123.

What does Toronto Dominion Bank (The) do?The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada,...

The Toronto-Dominion Bank, together with its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services in Canada, the United States, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking; U.S. Retail; Wealth Management and Insurance; and Wholesale Banking. The company offers personal deposits, such as chequing, savings, and investment products; financing, investment, cash management, international trade, and banking services to businesses; and financing options to customers at point of sale for automotive and recreational vehicle purchases. It also provides credit cards and payments; real estate secured lending, auto finance, and consumer lending services; point-of-sale payment solutions for large and small businesses; wealth and asset management products, and advice to retail and institutional clients through direct investing, advice-based, and asset management businesses; and property and casualty insurance, as well as life and health insurance products. The company also provides capital markets, and corporate and investment banking products and services, including underwriting and distribution of new debt and equity issues; advice on strategic acquisitions and divestitures; and trading, funding, and investment services to corporations, governments, and institutions. The Toronto-Dominion Bank was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Related stocks: MUFG (Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group,) · HSBC (HSBC Holdings, plc.) · BCS (Barclays PLC) · BAC (Bank of America Corporation) · JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.)
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