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MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.Sell6.3·$78.02-0.52%
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Minerals Technologies Inc. (MTX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.02 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Minerals Technologies Inc. develops and markets specialty mineral products — primarily bentonite, precipitated calcium carbonate, and refractory blends — through two segments: Consumer & Specialties (53% of 2025 net sales) and Engineered Solutions (47%), serving paper mills,... Read more

$78.02+2.7% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#2 of 36 Specialty Chemicals
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.51%
IncomeYield0.61%(5y avg 0.45%)Payout9.04%sustainable
Stop $74.10Target $80.11(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$94.25+20.8%4 analysts
$80.11our TP
$78.02price
$94.25mean
$105

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.02 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Minerals Technologies Inc.

About Minerals Technologies Inc.

Minerals Technologies posted net sales of roughly $2.07 billion in fiscal 2025, split 53% from Consumer & Specialties — Household & Personal Care ($512.8 million) and Specialty Additives ($584.9 million) — and 47% from Engineered Solutions — High-Temperature Technologies ($704.7 million) and Environmental & Infrastructure ($270.2 million). Operations span North America, Europe, and Asia, with approximately 48% of 2025 sales from outside the United States. The company is the world's largest producer of bentonite.

Consumer & Specialties earns from private-label and branded cat litter sold under the SIVO brand and from Specialty Additives revenue underpinned by long-term evergreen satellite supply agreements — initially 10 to 15 years — with paper mills, under which the company supplies substantially all of each host mill's calcium carbonate requirements. Specialty Additives faces a structural headwind: production levels for uncoated freesheet paper in North America and Europe are projected to continue decreasing, and mill consolidations have already resulted in closures that eliminate satellite contract volume. Engineered Solutions earns from green sand bond products sold to foundries for auto and heavy truck castings, refractory materials and laser measurement services for steel-making furnaces, and project-based geosynthetic clay liner and environmental remediation systems. The company sourced approximately 57% of its magnesia requirements — a key input for monolithic refractory products — from Chinese sources over the past five years, creating exposure to supply price volatility and U.S. import tariff risk on these materials.

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The satellite plant structure in Specialty Additives creates identifiable off-take concentration: Minerals Technologies owns, operates, and maintains manufacturing facilities co-located at paper mills and agrees to supply substantially all of each mill's precipitated calcium carbonate needs. The 10-K discloses that failure by a number of customers to renew or extend existing satellite agreements "could have a substantial adverse effect on the Company's results of operations," and that associated plant asset impairment could follow a non-renewal. Separately, the $961.7 million aggregate debt at December 31, 2025 — including $569.3 million under a term loan and $400.0 million of 5.0% Senior Notes due 2028 — exposes the company to elevated interest costs on SOFR-linked floating-rate borrowings that represent a significant portion of total indebtedness.

See also: Basic Materials · Specialty Chemicals

From Minerals Technologies Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Minerals Technologies Inc.

Generated 2026-06-17T09:07:23Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.4
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA8.1
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE9.8%
Rev Growth11.2%
Beta1.14
Dividend0.61%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.33bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$60-23.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierChina magnesia sources
    10-K Item 1A: 'the Company has purchased approximately 57% of its magnesia requirements from sources in China over the past five years'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-09Item 5.02LOW
    Jonathan J. Hastings, SVP M&A and Strategy, notified the company he will step down effective April 30, 2026. He will continue as Corporate Strategy Advisor to the Chairman and CEO. No successor for the SVP role named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-24Item 5.02LOW
    Board members Alison A. Deans and Franklin L. Feder notified the company they will retire from the Board at the end of their terms at the May 20, 2026 annual shareholder meeting. No reason cited beyond scheduled retirement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $73.47Resistance $79.85

Price Targets

$74
$80
A.Upside+2.7%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.7% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $78.02 — A.R:R 0.5:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $74.10. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.11 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $74.10. Stop-loss: $74.10.

What are the risks of investing in MTX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is MTX overvalued or undervalued?

Minerals Technologies Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.4 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTX?

8 analysts cover MTX with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $94.

What does Minerals Technologies Inc. do?Minerals Technologies Inc. develops and markets specialty mineral products — primarily bentonite, precipitated calcium...

Minerals Technologies Inc. develops and markets specialty mineral products — primarily bentonite, precipitated calcium carbonate, and refractory blends — through two segments: Consumer & Specialties (53% of 2025 net sales) and Engineered Solutions (47%), serving paper mills, foundries, steel producers, and consumer brands globally. Revenue comes from direct sales, long-term satellite supply agreements with paper mills, and on-site refractory services for steel producers.

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