Value
8.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/S | 9.6 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.2 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.5x
- ▸PEG: 0.24
- ▸Attractively valued
MTX · Why this verdict
Why Minerals Technologies (MTX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Minerals Technologies offers an attractive combination of a low forward P/E of 11x, a PEG ratio of 0.27, and a strong 3-of-4 earnings beat record, though the asymmetry-to-upside ratio is too thin at current prices to justify a new position.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The stock's current price of $78.43 is already within 2.1% of the analyst price target of $80.11, producing an asymmetry ratio of only 0.34 and limiting the near-term reward relative to a 6.3% potential downside. V9 | A pullback brings the price below $74 before the next earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable entry point. | →Stable |
| CounterGolden cross setup with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume could sustain the price near current levels without a meaningful correction. | ||
Minerals Technologies trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG ratio of just 0.27, suggesting the market is pricing in minimal growth despite a demonstrated track record of beating estimates. Valuation breakdown | The forward P/E expands toward 14x or the stock re-rates closer to the analyst price target of approximately $95 over the next 12 months. | ↑Improving |
| CounterBelow-average business quality scores and thin gross margins suggest the discount may reflect structural margin limitations rather than a temporary mispricing. | ||
Minerals Technologies beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, including a 9.9% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating strong operational execution. Earnings | The company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the positive surprise trend. | →Stable |
| CounterOne miss in the trailing 4 quarters and a weak Piotroski sub-score on gross margin suggest execution risk is not negligible, especially in a specialty chemicals demand slowdown. | ||
The put-to-call ratio of 4.50 is among the most elevated in the market, signaling that options participants are positioning heavily for downside — a warning that sophisticated money sees near-term risk. Options | The put-to-call ratio declines below 2.0 as hedging pressure normalizes following the next earnings report. | ↑Improving |
| CounterElevated put-call ratios in small-cap specialty chemicals stocks can reflect hedging by long holders rather than speculative bearishness, and often reverse without a price decline. | ||
The stock's current price of $78.43 is already within 2.1% of the analyst price target of $80.11, producing an asymmetry ratio of only 0.34 and limiting the near-term reward relative to a 6.3% potential downside.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- A pullback brings the price below $74 before the next earnings catalyst, restoring a more favorable entry point.
CounterGolden cross setup with the stock above all moving averages and rising on-balance volume could sustain the price near current levels without a meaningful correction.
Minerals Technologies trades at a forward P/E of 11.0x with a PEG ratio of just 0.27, suggesting the market is pricing in minimal growth despite a demonstrated track record of beating estimates.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The forward P/E expands toward 14x or the stock re-rates closer to the analyst price target of approximately $95 over the next 12 months.
CounterBelow-average business quality scores and thin gross margins suggest the discount may reflect structural margin limitations rather than a temporary mispricing.
Minerals Technologies beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 6.4%, including a 9.9% beat in the most recent quarter, indicating strong operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets consensus in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters, sustaining the positive surprise trend.
CounterOne miss in the trailing 4 quarters and a weak Piotroski sub-score on gross margin suggest execution risk is not negligible, especially in a specialty chemicals demand slowdown.
The put-to-call ratio of 4.50 is among the most elevated in the market, signaling that options participants are positioning heavily for downside — a warning that sophisticated money sees near-term risk.
↑ImprovingOptions
- Expectation
- The put-to-call ratio declines below 2.0 as hedging pressure normalizes following the next earnings report.
CounterElevated put-call ratios in small-cap specialty chemicals stocks can reflect hedging by long holders rather than speculative bearishness, and often reverse without a price decline.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 3.4 |
| Gross margin | 0.9 |
| Op margin | 5.4 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.3 |
| Moat | 3.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.4/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.4 |
Momentum
2.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 1.9 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.8 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.1 |
| Price target | 8.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (4.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 29%
Insider
7.2/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $1,758,422 (0.077% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.1 |
| quality rank | 1.6 |
| growth rank | 2.0 |
Technical
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 9.4 |
| support resistance | 8.2 |
| 52w position | 7.2 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.9 |
| days to cover | 7.6 |
| volatility | 1.7 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| beta | 6.4 |
| debt equity | 7.3 |
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.2 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 0.7% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCK:QUALITY_FLOORPassed (5)
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:78d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.07
Upside
+9.3%
Downside
8.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The SELL_IF_HOLDING verdict reflects the MOMENTUM gate's 2.6<4.5 outcome against Value at 8.4 and asymmetric R:R of 1.07.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Technical at 7.5, and Insider at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.6, Quality at 3.2, and Growth at 3.4. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.07 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 18x without a corresponding earnings revision higher.
- P2Earnings Beat Momentum
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus estimates by more than 5% in 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Thin Upside Asymmetry Constraint
Trip ifStock price rises above $82 (more than 4.5% above the $80.11 target) without an analyst target upgrade.
- P4Elevated Put Call Hedging Risk
Trip ifPut-to-call ratio remains above 3.0 for more than 30 days after the next earnings report.