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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum.

T is a New York business corporation that has elected to be treated as an FHC under the BHCA and is a BHC under Article III-A of the New York Banking Law. M&T was incorporated in November 1969. At December 31, 2025, M&T had two wholly-owned bank subsidiaries: M&T Bank and... Read more

$217.56+1.2% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#119 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $207.91Target $219.26(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$233.76+7.4%19 analysts
$219.26our TP
$217.56price
$233.76mean
$205
$265

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.1
P/E (Fwd)10.3
Mkt Cap$32.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.5%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.60
Dividend2.78%
Rating analysts26

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.61bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$170-21.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $204.92Resistance $223.73

Price Targets

$208
$219
A.Upside+0.8%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.9% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $217.56 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Negative momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $207.91. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $219.26 (+1.2% upside). Prior stop was $207.91. Stop-loss: $207.91.

What are the risks of investing in MTB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is MTB overvalued or undervalued?

M&T Bank Corporation trades at a P/E of 12.1 (forward 10.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTB?

26 analysts cover MTB with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $234.

What does M&T Bank Corporation do?T is a New York business corporation that has elected to be treated as an FHC under the BHCA and is a BHC under Article...

T is a New York business corporation that has elected to be treated as an FHC under the BHCA and is a BHC under Article III-A of the New York Banking Law. M&T was incorporated in November 1969. At December 31, 2025, M&T had two wholly-owned bank subsidiaries: M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust, N.A. The banks collectively offer a wide range of retail and commercial banking, wealth management, trust and institutional services to their customers.

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