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MTBM&T Bank CorporationHold5.5·$227.19-2.02%
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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $227.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away).

M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December 31, 2025, providing retail and commercial banking, wealth management, trust, and institutional services through two bank subsidiaries (M&T Bank and Wilmington... Read more

$227.19+0.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#104 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.59%(5y avg 3.13%)Payout32.85%sustainable
Stop $218.13Target $228.57(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$233.33+2.7%18 analysts
$228.57our TP
$227.19price
$233.33mean
$205
$265

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $227.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About M&T Bank Corporation

About M&T Bank Corporation

M&T Bank Corporation held $213.5 billion in total assets, $166.9 billion in deposits, and $29.2 billion in shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025, through two bank subsidiaries—M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust, N.A.—that together represent over 99% of consolidated assets. M&T Bank operates under a New York charter, supervised by the NYSDFS and the FRB of New York, with deposits insured by the FDIC, and serves consumers, small and medium-size businesses, and governmental entities across 13 states and D.C.

M&T generates revenue primarily from net interest income on a loan portfolio concentrated in commercial real estate, construction, C&I, and residential mortgage products originated by branches spanning New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Virginia, West Virginia, and D.C. Fee income flows from trust and fiduciary services through Wilmington Trust Company, institutional brokerage through M&T Securities, equipment leasing and financing through LEAF Commercial Capital and M&T Equipment Finance, and multifamily commercial real estate lending through M&T Realty Capital. Historically, the majority of holding company revenues derive from dividends paid up by M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust, N.A., each subject to regulatory dividend restrictions. The company's Stress Capital Buffer was fixed at 2.7% effective October 1, 2025, producing a minimum CET1 requirement of 7.2% of risk-weighted assets. The FOMC cut the federal funds target rate in September, October, and December 2025 after an extended elevated-rate period, affecting the spread between asset yields and deposit costs.

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The 10-K explicitly identifies geographic concentration as a material credit risk: the company's core banking business is largely concentrated within the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, exposing credit quality to correlated deterioration if regional economic conditions weaken. The filing names commercial real estate loans—including construction loans and loans secured by office, retail, health services, hospitality, and multifamily properties in New York City and other large metropolitan areas—as specific factors that could weigh on loss rates alongside the concentration of C&I loans to businesses in the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions. These two loan-mix concentrations and the regional footprint appear together under the credit risk factor titled 'Deteriorating credit quality could adversely impact the Company.'

See also: Financial Services · Banks - Regional

From M&T Bank Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 15, 202629d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.9% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.0
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$34.0B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.5%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.59%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.47bullish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$300+32.0% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.3>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 29d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
67 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $201.59Resistance $233.23

Price Targets

$218
$229
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.6% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (29d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $227.19, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 67, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $228.57 (+0.6%), stop $218.13 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $228.57 (+0.6% upside). Target $228.57 (+0.6%), stop $218.13 (−4.2%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $218.13.

What are the risks of investing in MTB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away).

Is MTB overvalued or undervalued?

M&T Bank Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.0 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MTB?

24 analysts cover MTB with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $233.

What does M&T Bank Corporation do?M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December...

M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December 31, 2025, providing retail and commercial banking, wealth management, trust, and institutional services through two bank subsidiaries (M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust, N.A.) across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. Revenue is primarily from net interest income and fee-based services to consumers, businesses, and government entities.

Related stocks: IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · COLB (Columbia Banking System, Inc.) · PNFP (Pinnacle Financial Partners, In) · NU (Nu Holdings Ltd.)
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