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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $206.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December 31, 2025, providing retail and commercial banking, wealth management, trust, and institutional services through two bank subsidiaries (M&T Bank and Wilmington... Read more

$206.56+1.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#78 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.91%(5y avg 3.13%)Payout32.85%sustainable
Stop $198.12Target $210.17(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$233.53+13.1%19 analysts
$210.17our TP
$206.56price
$233.53mean
$265

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $206.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — M&T Bank Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$30.2B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn31.5%
ROE10.3%
Rev Growth5.7%
Beta0.59
Dividend2.91%
Rating analysts25

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.68bearish
IV35%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
35 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $202.85Resistance $221.02

Price Targets

$198
$210
A.Upside+1.7%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.7% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-15 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $206.56, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $210.17 (+1.7%), stop $198.12 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $210.17 (+1.7% upside). Target $210.17 (+1.7%), stop $198.12 (−4.3%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $198.12.

What are the risks of investing in MTB?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.4).

Is MTB overvalued or undervalued?

M&T Bank Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about MTB?

25 analysts cover MTB with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $234.

What does M&T Bank Corporation do?M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December...

M&T Bank is a New York-chartered commercial bank and financial holding company with $213.5B in total assets at December 31, 2025, providing retail and commercial banking, wealth management, trust, and institutional services through two bank subsidiaries (M&T Bank and Wilmington Trust, N.A.) across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. Revenue is primarily from net interest income and fee-based services to consumers, businesses, and government entities.

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