Value
6.6/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 7.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 4.9 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 1.56
MTB · Why this verdict
Why M&T Bank (MTB) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
M&T Bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 5.66%, including beats in April, January, October 2025, and July 2025, demonstrating consistent operational execution. Earnings | The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the 29-day earnings catalyst approaches. | →Stable |
| CounterThe average surprise of 5.66% is meaningful but not exceptional for a bank, and with net interest margin dynamics shifting as rate environments evolve, the beat streak could easily break if funding costs rise faster than loan yields. | ||
The stock is above all moving averages with a golden cross in place, MACD bullish, and RSI at 65, indicating a technically confirmed uptrend that often precedes continued price strength. V9 | The stock maintains its golden-cross setup and continues trading above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterOn-balance volume is declining despite the bullish price setup, indicating falling buying volume that often signals the breakout lacks institutional conviction and may be unsustainable. | ||
M&T Bank achieves 31% net margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, scoring 5.4/10 on quality, which is respectable for a regional bank operating in a competitive lending environment. Quality breakdown | Net interest margin remains above 3% over the next 4 reported quarters as the loan book reprices in the current rate environment. | →Stable |
| CounterReturn on equity is only 3.4/10 by component scoring, suggesting the bank's capital efficiency is below peers, and moderate revenue growth of 3.9% does not justify a premium valuation at 10.8x forward earnings. | ||
At $225.94, the stock has surpassed analyst consensus targets with only 1.2% upside to resistance at $228.57 and downside risk of 4.1% to the stop at $216.60, making new purchases at current levels unattractive. Targets | A pullback to near $215-$220 restores a risk-reward of at least 2-to-1, creating a new entry point ahead of the July 2026 earnings event. | →Stable |
| CounterWith earnings in just 29 days and a perfect beat streak, the stock could gap above resistance on a strong quarterly result, meaning waiting for a pullback may mean missing a significant move. | ||
M&T Bank has beaten analyst EPS estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters with an average positive surprise of 5.66%, including beats in April, January, October 2025, and July 2025, demonstrating consistent operational execution.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats earnings estimates in at least 3 of the next 4 quarters as the 29-day earnings catalyst approaches.
CounterThe average surprise of 5.66% is meaningful but not exceptional for a bank, and with net interest margin dynamics shifting as rate environments evolve, the beat streak could easily break if funding costs rise faster than loan yields.
The stock is above all moving averages with a golden cross in place, MACD bullish, and RSI at 65, indicating a technically confirmed uptrend that often precedes continued price strength.
→StableV9
- Expectation
- The stock maintains its golden-cross setup and continues trading above the 200-day moving average for at least 9 of the next 12 months.
CounterOn-balance volume is declining despite the bullish price setup, indicating falling buying volume that often signals the breakout lacks institutional conviction and may be unsustainable.
M&T Bank achieves 31% net margins and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, scoring 5.4/10 on quality, which is respectable for a regional bank operating in a competitive lending environment.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net interest margin remains above 3% over the next 4 reported quarters as the loan book reprices in the current rate environment.
CounterReturn on equity is only 3.4/10 by component scoring, suggesting the bank's capital efficiency is below peers, and moderate revenue growth of 3.9% does not justify a premium valuation at 10.8x forward earnings.
At $225.94, the stock has surpassed analyst consensus targets with only 1.2% upside to resistance at $228.57 and downside risk of 4.1% to the stop at $216.60, making new purchases at current levels unattractive.
→StableTargets
- Expectation
- A pullback to near $215-$220 restores a risk-reward of at least 2-to-1, creating a new entry point ahead of the July 2026 earnings event.
CounterWith earnings in just 29 days and a perfect beat streak, the stock could gap above resistance on a strong quarterly result, meaning waiting for a pullback may mean missing a significant move.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
M&T Bank has a perfect 4-quarter earnings beat streak and a golden-cross technical setup above all moving averages, but the stock has reached analyst price targets and the negative risk-reward from here makes new purchases unattractive without a meaningful pullback.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 0.9 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Moat | 4.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 31%
- ▸No competitive moat
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.9 |
| EPS growth | 6.9 |
Momentum
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 9.8 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.7 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 4.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $6,379,510 (0.018% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.2 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
Technical
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.7 |
| support resistance | 1.8 |
| 52w position | 9.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 4.6 |
| volatility | 7.8 |
| put call | 7.1 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 9.6 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 12 days
- ▸Dividend: 251.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $238.88 has reached target $238.70. No upside to wait for.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2|SANITY:WAIT+price>=TPPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:12d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.19
Upside
-11.0%
Downside
9.3%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 65, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 12d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.9>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; weakest: Peer rank at 4.3. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0, Momentum at 6.9, and Value at 6.6; the weakest are Peer rank at 4.3, Technical at 4.4, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifActual EPS misses the consensus estimate by more than 5% in any of the next 2 quarterly reports.
- P2Golden Cross Technical Breakout
Trip ifStock price falls below the 200-day moving average and remains below for more than 15 consecutive trading days.
- P3Regional Bank Quality Efficiency
Trip ifReported net interest margin falls below 3% in any quarterly filing.
- P4Target Reached No New Entry
Trip ifStock price drops below $216.60, the stop-loss level, on a closing basis.