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ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. (SFBS) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 66% exposure to commercial and consumer real estate loans (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: commercial and consumer real estate loans (65.8%).

ServisFirst Bancshares is a commercial bank holding company headquartered in Birmingham, AL, operating 33 offices across AL, FL, GA, NC, SC, TN, and VA with $17.73B total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes primarily from net interest income on commercial loans and... Read more

$79.15+1.3% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#48 of 142 Banks - Regional
Stop $75.31Target $80.18(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$94.33+19.2%3 analysts
$80.18our TP
$79.15price
$94.33mean
$97

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 66% exposure to commercial and consumer real estate loans (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: commercial and consumer real estate loans (65.8%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and finsvc regional cliff hard block. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Single-region cliff: 66% exposure to commercial and consumer real estate loans (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.
Concentration risk — Geographic: commercial and consumer real estate loans (65.8%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn54.0%
ROE16.5%
Rev Growth18.5%
Beta0.89
Dividend1.94%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.18bullish
IV49%normal
Max Pain$65-17.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographiccommercial and consumer real estate loans66%
    10-K Item 1A: '65.8% of our loan portfolio was composed of commercial and consumer real estate loans'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotFINSVC REGIONAL CLIFF HARD BLOCKMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $71.76Resistance $80.94

Price Targets

$75
$80
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.3% upside)
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! FINSVC_REGIONAL_CLIFF:HARD_BLOCK

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-20 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SFBS stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.15, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Single-region cliff: 66% exposure to commercial and consumer real estate loans (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: commercial and consumer real estate loans (65.8%). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $80.18 (+1.3%), stop $75.31 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SFBS stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.18 (+1.3% upside). Target $80.18 (+1.3%), stop $75.31 (−5.1%), A.R:R 0.1:1. Stop-loss: $75.31.

What are the risks of investing in SFBS?

Single-region cliff: 66% exposure to commercial and consumer real estate loans (≥60% threshold). Regional macroeconomic shock = idiosyncratic terminal risk.; Concentration risk — Geographic: commercial and consumer real estate loans (65.8%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is SFBS overvalued or undervalued?

ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about SFBS?

9 analysts cover SFBS with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $94.

What does ServisFirst Bancshares, Inc. do?ServisFirst Bancshares is a commercial bank holding company headquartered in Birmingham, AL, operating 33 offices...

ServisFirst Bancshares is a commercial bank holding company headquartered in Birmingham, AL, operating 33 offices across AL, FL, GA, NC, SC, TN, and VA with $17.73B total assets as of December 31, 2025. Revenue comes primarily from net interest income on commercial loans and deposits, using a decentralized lending model with centralized credit administration.

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