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Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5High Confidence

Technology · Communication Equipment

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $437.15, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components.

Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public safety, government, and enterprise in 100+ countries. Products & Systems Integration generated $7.3B (62% of 2025 net sales); Software and Services the... Read more

$437.15+0.5% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#10 of 21 Communication Equipment
Stop $422.68Target $439.75(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$505.45+15.6%11 analysts
$439.75our TP
$437.15price
$505.45mean
$540

Sell if holding. At $437.15, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.7
P/E (Fwd)23.5
Mkt Cap$71.3B
EV/EBITDA22.6
Profit Mgn18.4%
ROE104.2%
Rev Growth12.3%
Beta0.99
Dividend1.13%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C1.41bearish
IV46%normal
Max Pain$360-17.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America revenue concentration72%
    10-K Item 1A: 'In 2025, 28% of our revenue was generated outside of North America.'
  • HIGHSuppliersingle-source critical components
    10-K Item 1A: 'certain supplies, including for some of our critical components, software and services solutions, are available only from a single source or limited sources'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02LOW
    Peter A. Leav joined the Board as a director and Compensation Committee member effective March 12, 2026. Board expanded from 8 to 9 members. Standard non-employee director compensation. No officer departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.1<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $424.05Resistance $450.00

Price Targets

$423
$440
A.Upside+0.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (0.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $437.15, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $422.68. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the MSI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $439.75 (+0.5% upside). Prior stop was $422.68. Stop-loss: $422.68.

What are the risks of investing in MSI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America revenue concentration (72.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source critical components; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is MSI overvalued or undervalued?

Motorola Solutions, Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.7 (forward 23.5). TrendMatrix value score: 4.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MSI?

19 analysts cover MSI with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $505.

What does Motorola Solutions, Inc. do?Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public...

Motorola Solutions provides mission-critical safety and security technologies (MCN, Video, Command Center) for public safety, government, and enterprise in 100+ countries. Products & Systems Integration generated $7.3B (62% of 2025 net sales); Software and Services the remainder. It holds a global leadership position in P25, TETRA and DMR two-way radio.

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