Texas Instruments is a high-quality analog semiconductor compounder with 32% return on equity, a wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong volume accumulation, but trades at a premium forward P/E of 33x while concentration in analog semiconductors shipped into China creates geopolitical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Growth→Stable
- China Concentration Geopolitical Risk↑Improving
- Analog Moat High Roe→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 6, 2026· older than 90 days
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%).
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $312.49 vs the analyst target $303.18: -3.0% upside; No upside left. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 30, 2026Recent Developments — Texas Instruments Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) Shares Fall 3.9% -- GF Value Says St - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 30, 2026 negative
- NEWS Texas Instruments Stocks Edge Lower After DZ Bank Raises Its Rating - TradingView — TradingView Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS ON Semiconductor Falls 5%, NXP Semiconductors Drops 4% as Soft Guidance Revives Auto Chip Worries; Skyworks Ticks Up, Qu — 24/7 Wall St. Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ETFs Bought $37.0 Million of Texas Instruments (TXN) on Monday - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Forecast and Price Target 2026 $TXN - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 30, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAnalog segment79%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of our Analog products generated about 79% of our revenue in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicChina (shipped into)50%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
- LOWGeographicend customers headquartered in China20%10-K Item 1A: 'Revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of our revenue in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Rafael Lizardi retiring Aug 1, 2026 after 25 years; Board appointed Julie Knecht (current VP/Chief Accounting Officer since 2021) as successor effective same date. Retirement not related to financial results or reporting practices. No disagreement with financial practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWHagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited beyond the announcement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $312.49, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $312.49 vs the analyst target $303.18: -3.0% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $303.18 reached (−3.0%), stop $280.52 (−11.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $303.18 reached (−3.0% from $312.49); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $303.18 reached (−3.0%), stop $280.52 (−11.4%), A.R:R -0.2:1. Stop-loss: $280.52.
Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 40.5 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Hold.
40 analysts rate TXN, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 29 analysts publish price targets averaging $337.
What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to...
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded Processing for 15%, primarily sold through direct channels including TI.com.