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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Wait for pullback to $252.46. BUY gates pass at $270.00, but concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $252.46 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025 with operations in 30+ countries. Revenue comes from sales to electronics designers and manufacturers globally; ~50% of products ship to China and ~60% of... Read more

$270.00+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#14 of 45 Semiconductors
Entry $252.46(R/R-minimum solve)Stop $234.79Target $282.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.4:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$274.94+1.8%32 analysts
$282.07our TP
$270.00price
$274.94mean
$200
$330

Wait for pullback to $252.46. BUY gates pass at $270.00, but concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $252.46 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.47, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.8/10). Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val3.2Qual7.7Grw7.8Mom5.5Sent5.5Ins3.8Peer4.4Tech4.3Risk5.65.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)46.1
P/E (Fwd)29.5
Mkt Cap$245.0B
EV/EBITDA29.3
Profit Mgn29.1%
ROE32.3%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.99
Dividend2.11%
Rating analysts44

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.26bearish
IV55%elevated
Max Pain$170-37.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicChina (products shipped)50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographiccustomers outside United States60%
    10-K Item 1A: 'About 60% of our revenue comes from customers with headquarter locations outside the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Hagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President of Texas Instruments, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No reason cited; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
1.2
Pe
2.7
Analyst Target
4.0
Forward Pe
4.1
Peg Ratio
5.1
Forward P/E: 29.5xPEG: 1.47
GatesA.R:R -0.4=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
78 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $191.00Resistance $287.83

Price Targets

$235
$252
$282
A.Upside+4.5%
A.R:R-0.4:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $252.46. BUY gates pass at $270.00, but concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%) and concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $252.46 (R/R-minimum solve) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.47, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.8/10). Target $282.07 (+4.5%), stop $234.79 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $282.07 (+11.7% upside). Target $282.07 (+4.5%), stop $234.79 (−15.0%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $234.79.

What are the risks of investing in TXN?

Concentration risk — Geographic: China (products shipped) (50.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: customers outside United States (60.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 46.1 (forward 29.5). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about TXN?

44 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $275.

What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in...

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing semiconductors, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025 with operations in 30+ countries. Revenue comes from sales to electronics designers and manufacturers globally; ~50% of products ship to China and ~60% of customers are headquartered outside the U.S.

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