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Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $304.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away).

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors sold to 100,000+ electronics manufacturers globally, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the U.S.;... Read more

$304.18+15.7% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#19 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield0.39%
IncomeYield1.88%(5y avg 2.72%)Payout95.04%at-risk
Entry $262.81(support + ATR)Stop $250.26Target $304.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1Setup A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$283.94-6.7%32 analysts
$304.08our TP
$304.18price
$283.94mean
$200
$340

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $304.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $304.88 has reached target $304.08. No upside to wait for. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 69d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Texas Instruments Incorporated

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.0 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (1.7% away)
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)51.6
P/E (Fwd)32.1
Mkt Cap$275.1B
EV/EBITDA32.8
Profit Mgn29.1%
ROE32.3%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta1.30
Dividend1.88%
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.77neutral
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$115-62.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicChina (products shipped into)50%
    10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina (end customers headquartered)20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of our revenue in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOW
    Hagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President of Texas Instruments, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No successor named; no reason cited beyond planned retirement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.1
Pe
2.4
Analyst Target
3.0
Forward Pe
3.6
Peg Ratio
5.3
Forward P/E: 32.1xPEG: 1.44Expensive valuation
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 69d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $258.00Resistance $310.29

Price Targets

$250
$263
$304
A.Upside-0.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-14.3% upside)
! News modifier capped: WAIT cannot upgrade to NOW via sentiment alone
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (69d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TXN stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $304.18, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $304.88 has reached target $304.08. No upside to wait for. Target $304.08 (-0.0%), stop $250.26 (−21.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TXN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $304.08 (+15.7% upside). Target $304.08 (-0.0%), stop $250.26 (−21.5%), A.R:R -0.9:1. Stop-loss: $250.26.

What are the risks of investing in TXN?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.7% away); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Is TXN overvalued or undervalued?

Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 51.6 (forward 32.1). TrendMatrix value score: 2.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about TXN?

45 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $284.

What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors...

Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog (79% of 2025 revenue) and embedded processing (15%) semiconductors sold to 100,000+ electronics manufacturers globally, generating $17.68B revenue in 2025. About 60% of revenue comes from customers headquartered outside the U.S.; products shipped into China represented approximately 50% of 2025 revenue.

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