Texas Instruments is a high-quality analog semiconductor compounder with 32% return on equity, a wide economic moat, four consecutive earnings beats, and strong volume accumulation, but trades at a premium forward P/E of 33x while concentration in analog semiconductors shipped into China creates geopolitical risk.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Growth↑Improving
- China Concentration Geopolitical Risk↓Deteriorating
- Analog Moat High Roe→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $280.65, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%).
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded... Read more
Sell if holding. At $280.65, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Texas Instruments Incorporated
Latest news
- NEWS A Look at Texas Instruments Inc (TXN) After 1.2% Gain -- GF Value $236.73 vs Price $281.69 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Investors Heavily Search Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Here is What You Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Investors Heavily Search Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Here is What You Need to Know - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments Incorporated $TXN Stock Holdings Lifted by Amundi - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Texas Instruments: On A Tear As The Market Realizes The Potential Of 300mm Capacity - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAnalog segment79%10-K Item 1: 'Sales of our Analog products generated about 79% of our revenue in 2025'
- HIGHGeographicChina (shipped into)50%10-K Item 1A: 'revenue from products shipped into China represented about 50% of our revenue in 2025'
- LOWGeographicend customers headquartered in China20%10-K Item 1A: 'Revenue from end customers headquartered in China represented about 20% of our revenue in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-06-02Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Rafael Lizardi retiring Aug 1, 2026 after 25 years; Board appointed Julie Knecht (current VP/Chief Accounting Officer since 2021) as successor effective same date. Retirement not related to financial results or reporting practices. No disagreement with financial practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-25Item 5.02LOWHagop Kozanian, Senior Vice President, announced intention to retire effective August 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited beyond the announcement.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $280.65, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%). Chart setup: RSI 59 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $264.39. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $298.73 (+6.4% upside). Prior stop was $264.39. Stop-loss: $264.39.
Concentration risk — Product: Analog segment (79.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: China (shipped into) (50.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.4%.
Texas Instruments Incorporated trades at a P/E of 43.8 (forward 26.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
43 analysts cover TXN with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $325.
What does Texas Instruments Incorporated do?Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to...
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures semiconductors across Analog and Embedded Processing segments, selling to over 100,000 customers in electronics markets globally. The company generated $17.68 billion in revenue in 2025, with Analog accounting for 79% and Embedded Processing for 15%, primarily sold through direct channels including TI.com.