MNRO screens with excellent cash conversion and an earnings catalyst backed by a 3-of-4 beat streak, but quality sits below the engine's floor, the asymmetry gate narrowly failed, revenue is declining, and short interest is elevated.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Floor Despite Cash Conversion—
- Asymmetry Gate Near Miss—
- Earnings Catalyst With Beat Streak—
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten vendors (stocking purchases) (88.0%); Market cap $381M below $400M minimum.
Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a Store Closure Plan, and relies on American Tire Distributors for managed distribution services since divesting its wholesale operations in June 2022. The company's... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten vendors (stocking purchases) (88.0%); Market cap $381M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Market cap $381M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-17Recent Developments — Monro, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Stephens & Co. Maintains Overweight on Monro, Lowers Price Target to $17 — benzinga Jul 30, 2026
- NEWS 11 Consumer Discretionary Stocks Moving In Wednesday's Intraday Session — benzinga Jul 29, 2026
- NEWS Monro Q1 Adj. EPS $(0.09) Misses $0.01 Estimate, Sales $287.129M Miss $287.735M Estimate — benzinga Jul 29, 2026
Generated 2026-08-05T10:39:48Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten vendors (stocking purchases)88%10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest vendors accounted for approximately 88 percent of our total stocking purchases, with the largest vendor accounting for approximately 35 percent of total stocking purchases in 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierlargest single vendor (stocking purchases)35%10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest vendors accounted for approximately 88 percent of our total stocking purchases, with the largest vendor accounting for approximately 35 percent of total stocking purchases in 2026.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $12.35, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten vendors (stocking purchases) (88.0%); Market cap $381M below $400M minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 45. Market cap $381M below $400M minimum. Not in investable universe. Target $18.70 (+51.4%), stop $11.33 (−9.0%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Score 4.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.70 (+53.5% upside). Target $18.70 (+51.4%), stop $11.33 (−9.0%), A.R:R 5.7:1. Stop-loss: $11.33.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten vendors (stocking purchases) (88.0%); Market cap $381M below $400M minimum.
Monro, Inc. trades at a P/E of 55.4 (forward 29.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.6/10. Verdict: Hold.
11 analysts cover MNRO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.
What does Monro, Inc. do?Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a...
Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a Store Closure Plan, and relies on American Tire Distributors for managed distribution services since divesting its wholesale operations in June 2022. The company's ten largest vendors supplied approximately 88% of 2026 stocking purchases, with a single vendor accounting for about 35%.