Monro shows excellent cash conversion and a 41.3% gap to the analyst target, but revenue is shrinking about 5%, the last two quarters were large earnings misses, and business quality sits below the engine's 4.0 floor.
Thesis pillars
- Vendor Concentration Manageable↑Improving
- Revenue Decline Stabilizes→Stable
- Earnings Miss Reversal↑Improving
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed May 27, 2026
Monro, Inc. (MNRO) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.41: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 44%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a Store Closure Plan, and relies on American Tire Distributors for managed distribution services since divesting its wholesale operations in June 2022. The company's... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.41: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 44%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 2d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-27Recent Developments — Monro, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Monro, Lowers Price Target to $15 — benzinga Oct 23, 2026 negative
- NEWS Monro, Inc. to Participate in the 50th Annual Automotive Symposium — fiscal.ai Oct 21, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-10-27T12:14:06Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertop ten vendors (stocking purchases)88%10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest vendors accounted for approximately 88 percent of our total stocking purchases, with the largest vendor accounting for approximately 35 percent of total stocking purchases in 2026.'
- MEDIUMSupplierlargest single vendor (stocking purchases)35%10-K Item 1: 'Our ten largest vendors accounted for approximately 88 percent of our total stocking purchases, with the largest vendor accounting for approximately 35 percent of total stocking purchases in 2026.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
5 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.41: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.1/10 and A.R:R 4.1:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 44%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $12.81. Score 4.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $18.49 (+37.9% upside). Prior stop was $12.81. Stop-loss: $12.81.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top ten vendors (stocking purchases) (88.0%); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).
Monro, Inc. trades at a P/E of 61.0 (forward 30.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover MNRO with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $22.
What does Monro, Inc. do?Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a...
Monro, Inc. operates 1,115 retail tire and automotive repair stores nationwide, having closed 145 locations under a Store Closure Plan, and relies on American Tire Distributors for managed distribution services since divesting its wholesale operations in June 2022. The company's ten largest vendors supplied approximately 88% of 2026 stocking purchases, with a single vendor accounting for about 35%.