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Atmus Filtration Technologies I (ATMU) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Auto Parts

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products (fuel, lube, air, crankcase, hydraulic filters, coolants) for on- and off-highway commercial vehicles globally. In 2025, $1,764.3M in net sales with ~86% from the aftermarket; Cummins (18.8%), PACCAR... Read more

$48.78+18.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#12 of 27 Auto Parts
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.13%
IncomeYield0.46%Payout8.43%sustainable
Stop $46.60Target $57.77(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$66.40+36.1%5 analysts
$57.77our TP
$48.78price
$66.40mean
$73

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Atmus Filtration Technologies I

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.0
P/E (Fwd)15.0
Mkt Cap$3.9B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn11.6%
ROE63.1%
Rev Growth14.6%
Beta1.48
Dividend0.46%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.89neutral
IV49%normal
Max Pain$48-2.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerCummins19%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have significant customer concentration, with Cummins, PACCAR and the Traton Group respectively accounting for approximately 18.8%, 16.3% and 11.5% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • MEDIUMCustomerPACCAR16%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have significant customer concentration, with Cummins, PACCAR and the Traton Group respectively accounting for approximately 18.8%, 16.3% and 11.5% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'
  • LOWCustomerTraton Group12%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We have significant customer concentration, with Cummins, PACCAR and the Traton Group respectively accounting for approximately 18.8%, 16.3% and 11.5% of our net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 23, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+6.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
23 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $48.04Resistance $64.06

Price Targets

$47
$58
A.Upside+18.4%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ATMU stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $48.78 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $46.60. Score 5.5/10, high confidence.

What is the ATMU stock price target?

Take-profit target: $57.77 (+18.8% upside). Prior stop was $46.60. Stop-loss: $46.60.

What are the risks of investing in ATMU?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 2.6): -1.5; Negative momentum.

Is ATMU overvalued or undervalued?

Atmus Filtration Technologies I trades at a P/E of 19.0 (forward 15.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ATMU?

11 analysts cover ATMU with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $66.

What does Atmus Filtration Technologies I do?Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products (fuel, lube, air, crankcase, hydraulic...

Atmus Filtration Technologies manufactures Fleetguard-brand filtration products (fuel, lube, air, crankcase, hydraulic filters, coolants) for on- and off-highway commercial vehicles globally. In 2025, $1,764.3M in net sales with ~86% from the aftermarket; Cummins (18.8%), PACCAR (16.3%), and Traton Group (11.5%) are the top three customers, collectively representing ~47% of net sales.

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