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McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Rental & Leasing Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable Storage), and electronic test equipment (TRS-RenTelco), plus manufactures classrooms for California schools (Enviroplex). Revenue comes from rental fees and... Read more

$109.92+15.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#9 of 16 Rental & Leasing Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.73%
IncomeYield1.77%(5y avg 1.87%)Payout30.79%sustainable
Stop $102.78Target $126.50(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$145.40+32.3%5 analysts
$126.50our TP
$109.92price
$145.40mean
$150

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.1Qual6.4Grw2.0Mom1.4Sent6.2Ins3.9Peer4.2Tech7.4Risk7.84.9OVERALL

Recent Developments — McGrath RentCorp

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.9/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.5
P/E (Fwd)15.7
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn16.4%
ROE13.1%
Rev Growth1.6%
Beta0.45
Dividend1.77%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

IV51%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSuppliersingle modular manufacturer27%
    10-K Item 1: 'During 2025, Mobile Modular purchased 27% of its new modular units from one manufacturer'
  • MEDIUMCustomerpublic school (K-12)25%
    10-K Item 1: 'Rentals and Sales to Public Schools (K-12)...Consolidated Rental and Sales Revenues 1 | | 25% | | 24% | | 18%'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.5
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
1.1
Revenue Growth
2.9
GatesMomentum 1.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $104.89Resistance $120.39

Price Targets

$103
$127
A.Upside+15.1%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MGRC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $109.92 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $102.78. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MGRC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $126.50 (+15.1% upside). Prior stop was $102.78. Stop-loss: $102.78.

What are the risks of investing in MGRC?

Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.

Is MGRC overvalued or undervalued?

McGrath RentCorp trades at a P/E of 17.5 (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MGRC?

9 analysts cover MGRC with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $145.

What does McGrath RentCorp do?McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable...

McGrath RentCorp rents and sells relocatable modular buildings (Mobile Modular), portable storage containers (Portable Storage), and electronic test equipment (TRS-RenTelco), plus manufactures classrooms for California schools (Enviroplex). Revenue comes from rental fees and equipment sales; K-12 public school rentals and sales represented 25% of consolidated revenues and 34% of modular revenues in 2025.

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