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MDLZMondelez International, Inc.Sell5.3·$60.72+2.31%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Mondelez's quality has slipped below the minimum investment threshold — with no identifiable competitive moat and volume flowing out of the stock against a flat moving-average slope — while the most recent earnings quarter missed consensus by approximately 30%, breaking three consecutive beats; together these signals point to a deteriorating risk profile at a price where only 2.5% upside to resistance offers insufficient reward.

Thesis pillars

  • Momentum Deterioration Falling ObvStable
  • Quality Below Threshold No MoatStable
  • Recent Earnings Miss Breaks StreakStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.72: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over 150 countries through brands including Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Clif Bar, and Toblerone, generating global net revenues of $38.5 billion in 2025.... Read more

$60.72+2.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#2 of 3 Confectioners
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.64%
IncomeYield3.28%(5y avg 2.49%)Payout97.52%at-risk
Stop $57.73Target $62.54(resistance)A.R:R -0.1:1
Analyst target$67.13+10.6%23 analysts
$62.54our TP
$60.72price
$67.13mean
$55
$75

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.72: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Mondelez International, Inc.

About Mondelez International, Inc.

Mondelez International generated $38.5 billion in net revenues in 2025, with chocolate, biscuits, and baked snacks as the core categories sold through 145 manufacturing and processing facilities across 49 countries. The company employs approximately 91,000 people globally — roughly 12,000 in the United States and 79,000 outside — and sells in over 150 countries through four geographic segments (North America, Europe, AMEA, Latin America). Net earnings totaled $2.5 billion in 2025; 75.8% of net revenues came from outside the United States, up from 74.0% in 2024.

Mondelez earns revenue through branded volume sales across five product categories: biscuits and baked snacks (Oreo, Ritz, LU, Clif Bar, Tate's Bake Shop), chocolate (Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone), gum and candy, beverages, and cheese and grocery. Products reach consumers through supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, convenience stores, and e-commerce platforms. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of net revenues in 2025, reflecting broad retail distribution without channel concentration. Input cost exposure is material: the company purchases large quantities of cocoa, dairy, wheat, edible oils, sugar, flavoring agents, and nuts. In 2025, commodity cost pressure was driven primarily by soaring cocoa bean prices; the company responded through hedging, pricing actions, and manufacturing cost control, though the 10-K acknowledges hedging strategies may not protect against increases in inputs like dairy where hedging is limited.

Show full overview

Cocoa represents the most acute commodity risk: the 10-K notes that 2025 saw 'soaring commodity prices (especially for cocoa beans)' contributed to higher aggregate costs, driven by crop disruptions in West Africa that are potentially exacerbated by climate change. Separately, Mondelez's Russia operations accounted for 3.7% of 2025 consolidated net revenues; the company has suspended advertising spending and new capital investment in Russia, and the 10-K identifies the risk that Russian assets may become impaired or operations deconsolidated depending on how the war in Ukraine evolves.

See also: Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

From Mondelez International, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-07-05

Recent Developments — Mondelez International, Inc.

Generated 2026-07-05T15:30:26Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202625d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-0.8% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.2
P/E (Fwd)18.0
Mkt Cap$78.2B
EV/EBITDA18.9
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE10.2%
Rev Growth8.2%
Beta0.41
Dividend3.28%
Rating analysts34

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.38bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$67+10.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.5
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.4
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
3.3
Value Rank
6.7

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin
1.8
Current Ratio
2.2
Roa
2.3
Net Margin
3.3
Roe
3.4
Operating Margin
3.7
Moat
4.2
Piotroski F
6.7
Fcf Quality
7.5
No competitive moat
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5A.R:R -0.1=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 25d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
43 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $57.78Resistance $63.82

Price Targets

$58
$63
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-0.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! momentum at 3.7 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (25d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MDLZ stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $60.72: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $57.73. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MDLZ stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.54 (+2.7% upside). Prior stop was $57.73. Stop-loss: $57.73.

What are the risks of investing in MDLZ?

Target reached (-0.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is MDLZ overvalued or undervalued?

Mondelez International, Inc. trades at a P/E of 30.2 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 5.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MDLZ?

34 analysts cover MDLZ with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Mondelez International, Inc. do?Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over...

Mondelez International sells snack foods across five categories (biscuits, chocolate, gum, beverages, cheese) in over 150 countries through brands including Oreo, Ritz, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Clif Bar, and Toblerone, generating global net revenues of $38.5 billion in 2025. The company operates 145 principal manufacturing facilities across 49 countries with approximately 91,000 employees; 75.8% of 2025 net revenues came from outside the United States.

Related stocks: HSY (The Hershey Company) · EDU (New Oriental Education & Techno) · CELH (Celsius Holdings, Inc.) · COKE (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.) · MNST (Monster Beverage Corporation)
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