Value
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 4.3 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.0 |
| PEG | 7.1 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 18.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.98
MDLZ · Why this verdict
Why Mondelez International (MDLZ) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.3/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Volume is flowing out of the stock — OBV is falling — while the long-term moving-average slope has gone flat, signaling that price support is weakening even though the stock still trades above its 200-day average. Momentum breakdown | OBV turns higher and sustains a rising trend for at least 8 consecutive weeks, confirming the distribution pattern has reversed and buyers are returning in size. | →Stable |
| CounterFalling OBV in a range-bound defensive consumer stock may reflect routine sector rotation rather than company-specific deterioration; a macro pivot toward defensives could reverse the distribution signal quickly. | ||
The overall quality score sits just below the minimum investment floor, and the underlying assessment identifies no competitive moat — conditions that raise concerns about the durability of returns and pricing power over a full economic cycle. Quality breakdown | If the quality concern resolves, the quality score rises to 6.0 or above over the next four quarters as margins, returns, and competitive-positioning indicators improve. | →Stable |
| CounterConsumer staples businesses with broad global distribution and established brand portfolios can sustain earnings without a formally quantified moat; the quality-floor miss may reflect a period of elevated input costs or currency headwinds rather than permanent erosion. | ||
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by approximately 30%, ending what had been three consecutive beats — a sharp reversal that raises questions about whether the prior outperformance can be reinstated. Earnings | The next two quarterly reports each beat consensus by more than 5%, restoring the beat pattern and removing the earnings-miss overhang. | →Stable |
| CounterA single large miss after three consecutive beats can reflect timing effects such as input-cost step-ups or distributor de-stocking rather than a structural change; if the next quarter recovers cleanly, the miss may prove transient. | ||
With only 2.5% upside to the technical resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the quality and momentum concerns present in the setup. Price targets | Upside to the price target expands above 15% through either a meaningful pullback or a target revision upward, restoring a more attractive risk/reward geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterDefensive consumer names are frequently held for income and capital preservation rather than price appreciation; a 2.5% near-term upside to resistance does not preclude dividend accrual or further price expansion if macro conditions favor the sector. | ||
Volume is flowing out of the stock — OBV is falling — while the long-term moving-average slope has gone flat, signaling that price support is weakening even though the stock still trades above its 200-day average.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- OBV turns higher and sustains a rising trend for at least 8 consecutive weeks, confirming the distribution pattern has reversed and buyers are returning in size.
CounterFalling OBV in a range-bound defensive consumer stock may reflect routine sector rotation rather than company-specific deterioration; a macro pivot toward defensives could reverse the distribution signal quickly.
The overall quality score sits just below the minimum investment floor, and the underlying assessment identifies no competitive moat — conditions that raise concerns about the durability of returns and pricing power over a full economic cycle.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- If the quality concern resolves, the quality score rises to 6.0 or above over the next four quarters as margins, returns, and competitive-positioning indicators improve.
CounterConsumer staples businesses with broad global distribution and established brand portfolios can sustain earnings without a formally quantified moat; the quality-floor miss may reflect a period of elevated input costs or currency headwinds rather than permanent erosion.
The most recent quarterly report missed consensus by approximately 30%, ending what had been three consecutive beats — a sharp reversal that raises questions about whether the prior outperformance can be reinstated.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The next two quarterly reports each beat consensus by more than 5%, restoring the beat pattern and removing the earnings-miss overhang.
CounterA single large miss after three consecutive beats can reflect timing effects such as input-cost step-ups or distributor de-stocking rather than a structural change; if the next quarter recovers cleanly, the miss may prove transient.
With only 2.5% upside to the technical resistance target and an unfavorable risk/reward ratio, the current price offers insufficient compensation for the quality and momentum concerns present in the setup.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Upside to the price target expands above 15% through either a meaningful pullback or a target revision upward, restoring a more attractive risk/reward geometry.
CounterDefensive consumer names are frequently held for income and capital preservation rather than price appreciation; a 2.5% near-term upside to resistance does not preclude dividend accrual or further price expansion if macro conditions favor the sector.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Mondelez's quality has slipped below the minimum investment threshold — with no identifiable competitive moat and volume flowing out of the stock against a flat moving-average slope — while the most recent earnings quarter missed consensus by approximately 30%, breaking three consecutive beats; together these signals point to a deteriorating risk profile at a price where only 2.5% upside to resistance offers insufficient reward.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 3.4 |
| ROA | 2.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.8 |
| Op margin | 3.7 |
| Net margin | 3.3 |
| Current ratio | 2.2 |
| FCF quality | 7.5 |
| Moat | 4.2 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.5 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
| erm sentiment | 4.7 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,934 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.7 |
| quality rank | 0.0 |
| growth rank | 3.3 |
Technical
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.8 |
| support resistance | 4.8 |
| 52w position | 7.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.6 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 6.0 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 6.4 |
| max pain risk | 5.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.0 |
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.5 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Dividend: 328.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.15
Upside
-0.8%
Downside
5.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 43 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:3.7<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.3, Growth at 7.2, and Sentiment at 6.4; the weakest are Momentum at 3.7, Peer rank at 3.8, and Quality at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.15 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Quality Below Threshold No Moat
Trip ifQuality score rises above 6.0 for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating competitive and financial quality metrics have recovered materially.
- P2Momentum Deterioration Falling Obv
Trip ifOBV rises by more than 10% from current levels over 4 consecutive weeks, confirming volume distribution has reversed.
- P3Recent Earnings Miss Breaks Streak
Trip ifEPS beats consensus by more than 5% for 2 consecutive quarters, restoring the earnings-beat cadence.
- P4Limited Upside Unfavorable Risk Reward
Trip ifUpside to the analyst price target expands above 15%, indicating the price-reward geometry has improved materially.