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The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%.

The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, selling confectionery, salty snacks, and international products under 85+ brand names through North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks,... Read more

$190.00+3.5% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#1 of 3 Confectioners
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.91%
IncomeYield3.01%(5y avg 2.32%)Payout103.58%at-risk
Stop $179.01Target $195.65(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$217.39+14.4%23 analysts
$195.65our TP
$190.00price
$217.39mean
$166
$255

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — The Hershey Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Consumer Defensive): +0.8
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)35.8
P/E (Fwd)19.5
Mkt Cap$39.1B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn9.1%
ROE23.2%
Rev Growth10.6%
Beta0.07
Dividend3.01%
Rating analysts30

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.52bearish
IV42%normal
Max Pain$225+18.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMcLane Company, Inc.27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer, McLane Company, Inc., accounted for approximately 27% of our consolidated net sales in 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Andrew Archambault, President US, leaving the company effective May 1, 2026. No reason cited. Company has begun a search for his replacement; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.9>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
56 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $178.81Resistance $195.91

Price Targets

$179
$196
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $190.00, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%. Chart setup: RSI 56 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $195.65 (+3.0%), stop $179.01 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $195.65 (+3.5% upside). Target $195.65 (+3.0%), stop $179.01 (−6.1%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $179.01.

What are the risks of investing in HSY?

Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.2): -0.5.

Is HSY overvalued or undervalued?

The Hershey Company trades at a P/E of 35.8 (forward 19.5). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HSY?

30 analysts cover HSY with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $217.

What does The Hershey Company do?The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual...

The Hershey Company is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America with more than $12 billion in annual revenue, selling confectionery, salty snacks, and international products under 85+ brand names through North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International segments. McLane Company accounted for approximately 27% of consolidated net sales in 2025, serving as primary distributor to Walmart and convenience channels. International operations represented 12.3% of net sales.

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