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The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitHigh Confidence

Consumer Defensive · Confectioners

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $183.51. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $186.41. Engine's entry $183.51 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States manufacturing (74.0%).

Hershey is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America, with North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks (SkinnyPop, Dot's Pretzels), and International segments marketing 85+ brands in ~65 countries. Revenue comes from wholesale distributors, grocery... Read more

$186.41+10.0% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#3 of 3 Confectioners
Entry $183.51(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $174.20Target $202.15(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 1.7:1Setup A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$224.61+20.5%23 analysts
$202.15our TP
$186.41price
$224.61mean
$166
$260

Wait for pullback to $183.51. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $186.41. Engine's entry $183.51 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States manufacturing (74.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val5.3Qual5.5Grw2.1Mom3.5Sent5.8Ins3.3Peer3.8Tech7.0Risk5.24.6OVERALL

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States manufacturing (74.0%)
Thin upside margin: 8.6%

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)43.7
P/E (Fwd)19.2
Mkt Cap$38.3B
EV/EBITDA21.8
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE18.9%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta0.17
Dividend3.07%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.57bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$130-30.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerMcLane Company, Inc.27%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest customer, McLane Company, Inc., accounted for approximately 27% of our consolidated net sales in 2025'
  • HIGHGeographicUnited States manufacturing74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 74% of our manufacturing capacity is located in the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Andrew Archambault (President, US) leaving effective May 1, 2026. Company began a search for his replacement. No reason cited; no successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.2

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.4
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.3
Rsi
3.0
Obv
9.6
Capitulation risk (RSI 24, below 200MA)Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.0%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.7
Growth Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dA.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
24 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $181.45Resistance $211.09

Price Targets

$174
$184
$202
A.Upside+8.4%
A.R:R1.7:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:0d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HSY stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $183.51. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $186.41. Engine's entry $183.51 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States manufacturing (74.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $202.15 (+8.4%), stop $174.20 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.

What is the HSY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $202.15 (+10.0% upside). Target $202.15 (+8.4%), stop $174.20 (−7.0%), Setup A.R:R 2.4:1. Stop-loss: $174.20.

What are the risks of investing in HSY?

Concentration risk — Customer: McLane Company, Inc. (27.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: United States manufacturing (74.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.6%.

Is HSY overvalued or undervalued?

The Hershey Company trades at a P/E of 43.7 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HSY?

29 analysts cover HSY with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $225.

What does The Hershey Company do?Hershey is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America, with North America Confectionery, North America...

Hershey is the largest producer of quality chocolate in North America, with North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks (SkinnyPop, Dot's Pretzels), and International segments marketing 85+ brands in ~65 countries. Revenue comes from wholesale distributors, grocery chains, mass merchandisers, and convenience stores primarily in North America.

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