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Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

Wait for pullback to $165.06. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.94. Engine's entry $165.06 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum.

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$166.94+30.4% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#1 of 11 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield6.93%
IncomeYield1.16%(5y avg 0.61%)Payout19.53%sustainable
Entry $165.06(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $150.08Target $214.48(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1Setup A.R:R 5.8:1
Analyst target$252.33+51.2%3 analysts
$214.48our TP
$166.94price
$252.33mean
$280

Wait for pullback to $165.06. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.94. Engine's entry $165.06 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.26, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.6/10). Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Morningstar, Inc.

Material events (past 30 days)

  • May 8, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Name | Votes For | Votes Against | Abstentions | Broker Non-Votes Joe Mansueto | 33,192,034 | 508,755 | 6,874 | 1,281,152 [... truncated]

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.7 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.6
P/E (Fwd)13.0
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA12.4
Profit Mgn16.1%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.8%
Beta0.98
Dividend1.16%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV47%normal
Max Pain$340+103.7% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-08Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Name | Votes For | Votes Against | Abstentions | Broker Non-Votes Joe Mansueto | 33,192,034 | 508,755 | 6,874 | 1,281,152 [... truncated]
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $160.79Resistance $189.28

Price Targets

$150
$165
$214
A.Upside+28.5%
A.R:R3.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)5.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.2%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MORN stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $165.06. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $166.94. Engine's entry $165.06 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 0.26, quality 7.7/10, growth 7.6/10). Target $214.48 (+28.5%), stop $150.08 (−11.2%), Setup A.R:R 5.8:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MORN stock price target?

Take-profit target: $214.48 (+30.4% upside). Target $214.48 (+28.5%), stop $150.08 (−11.2%), Setup A.R:R 5.8:1. Stop-loss: $150.08.

What are the risks of investing in MORN?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.9): -1.0; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.8%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is MORN overvalued or undervalued?

Morningstar, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.6 (forward 13.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MORN?

9 analysts cover MORN with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $252.

What does Morningstar, Inc. do?Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and...

Our mission is to empower investor success. We deliver connected data, independent research, investor-first tools, and long-term portfolio strategies with a focus on removing frictions that can slow decisions, cloud markets, and drive up costs.

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