Starbucks has broken to a golden cross technical setup with strong price momentum at 7.4 out of 10 and rising volume accumulation, but business quality is below the minimum threshold at 3.2 out of 10, the stock has missed earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters by an average of -35%, and geographic concentration in North America at 74% limits the growth story.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Miss Streak Quality Concern↑Improving
- Technical Breakout Momentum→Stable
- Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 14, 2025· older than 90 days
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $109.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%).
Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $109.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.
About Starbucks Corporation
About Starbucks Corporation
Starbucks operated 40,990 coffeehouses across 89 markets at September 28, 2025, including 10,047 U.S. company-operated stores, 8,009 company-operated stores in China, and 19,476 licensed stores worldwide. North America accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025, with company-operated stores contributing 83% of total net revenues. The company employed approximately 381,000 people, including about 223,000 in the U.S. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Starbucks announced a restructuring plan involving coffeehouse closures — 627 stores were closed in Q4 2025 alone — as part of its 'Back to Starbucks' strategy.
Starbucks earns revenue through three segments: North America (74% of revenues, inclusive of the U.S. and Canada), International (21%, inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean), and Channel Development (5%, branded packaged goods and ready-to-drink beverages sold outside stores). Under company-operated stores, beverages represented 73% of retail sales mix in fiscal 2025, followed by food at 23%. Licensed stores generate lower gross margins but higher operating margins, with licensees paying royalties and purchasing branded products. Channel Development operates substantially under the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé S.A., which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods; ready-to-drink products operate under collaborative relationships with PepsiCo and Nestlé. The Starbucks Rewards loyalty program and Starbucks Card are central to driving repeat visits and customer retention across North America, China, and Japan.
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Starbucks faces structurally elevated dependence on arabica coffee, which trades at a premium above the 'C' commodity price and is subject to weather volatility, disease, crop disease, and speculative trading — with droughts and frosts in Brazil cited as past price drivers. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that its Board approved further restructuring under the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy, targeting $2 billion in cost savings, with approximately $400 million in restructuring charges expected (roughly $280 million non-cash). International licensed operations are concentrated among a few large regional licensees, and the 10-K notes that if Nestlé fails to meet its obligations or support the brand, it could materially impact Channel Development results.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
From Starbucks Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — Starbucks Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS SBUX Stock Dips As China Restructuring Weighs On Q4 Revenue Despite Stronger Comparable Sales - Stocktwits — Stocktwits Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Starbucks Stock Stalls After Mixed Q4 Results - Benzinga — Benzinga Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Earnings Flash (SBUX) Starbucks Corporation Posts Q4 Adjusted EPS $0.80 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.72 - marketscre — marketscreener.com Oct 29, 2026 positive
- NEWS Starbucks sales miss expectations, but its U.S. turnaround is gaining steam - CNBC — CNBC Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Starbucks international business disappoints but U.S. stores outperform - CNBC — CNBC Oct 29, 2026 positive
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicNorth America74%10-K Item 1A: 'our North America operating segment, which accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyNestlé10-K Item 1A: 'Our Channel Development business is heavily reliant on Nestlé, which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-15Item 2.05MEDIUMBoard approved further restructuring under 'Back to Starbucks' strategy: ~$400M charges expected (~$280M non-cash), targeting $2B cost savings via streamlining support organization and reducing Starbucks Reserve/Roastery operational complexity. Majority of actions to complete by end of fiscal 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $109.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $104.64. Score 4.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $99.68 reached (−9.1% from $109.70); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $104.64. Stop-loss: $104.64.
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.7% away).
Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 49.6 (forward 29.4). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
45 analysts rate SBUX, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 29 analysts publish price targets averaging $111.
What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with...
Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from coffeehouse sales (beverages 73% of retail mix), licensed store royalties and product sales (12% of revenues), and Channel Development (5% of revenues) primarily through a Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé.