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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee, tea, and food with North America generating 74% of fiscal 2025 net revenues. Revenue comes primarily from company-operated stores (83% of net revenues) and... Read more

$106.11-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#16 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.07%
IncomeYield2.33%(5y avg 2.28%)Payout187.79%at-risk
Stop $100.56Target $106.08(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$106.58+0.4%33 analysts
$106.08our TP
$106.11price
$106.58mean
$81
$137

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Starbucks Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%)
Target reached (-8.0% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)81.4
P/E (Fwd)35.2
Mkt Cap$121.5B
EV/EBITDA26.7
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta1.01
Dividend2.33%
Rating analysts49

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.51bullish
IV41%normal
Max Pain$55-48.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our financial performance is heavily reliant on our North America operating segment, which accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.4
Net Margin
1.9
Operating Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
3.7
Roa
4.9
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -87% FCF/NINo competitive moat

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
0.9
Forward Pe
3.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.7
Ps
8.2
Forward P/E: 35.2xPEG: 1.77

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
5.5

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.2
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
77 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $95.88Resistance $108.25

Price Targets

$101
$106
A.Upside-0.0%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.0% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBUX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $106.11: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.8/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $100.56. Score 4.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBUX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $106.08 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $100.56. Stop-loss: $100.56.

What are the risks of investing in SBUX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Target reached (-8.0% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued?

Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 81.4 (forward 35.2). TrendMatrix value score: 3.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBUX?

49 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $107.

What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee,...

Starbucks operates 40,990 stores in 89 markets (21,514 company-operated, 19,476 licensed), selling specialty coffee, tea, and food with North America generating 74% of fiscal 2025 net revenues. Revenue comes primarily from company-operated stores (83% of net revenues) and licensed store royalties and product sales (12%), with Channel Development contributing 5% via the Nestle Global Coffee Alliance.

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