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SBUXStarbucks CorporationSell5.0·$102.00+0.40%
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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $102.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation.

Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from... Read more

$102.00+3.7% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#17 of 20 Restaurants
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield-1.13%
IncomeYield2.44%(5y avg 2.29%)Payout187.79%at-risk
Stop $96.30Target $105.41(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$106.25+4.2%32 analysts
$105.41our TP
$102.00price
$106.25mean
$81
$137

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $102.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 42d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and 8k serious 2.05. Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Starbucks Corporation

About Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks operated 40,990 coffeehouses across 89 markets at September 28, 2025, including 10,047 U.S. company-operated stores, 8,009 company-operated stores in China, and 19,476 licensed stores worldwide. North America accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025, with company-operated stores contributing 83% of total net revenues. The company employed approximately 381,000 people, including about 223,000 in the U.S. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Starbucks announced a restructuring plan involving coffeehouse closures — 627 stores were closed in Q4 2025 alone — as part of its 'Back to Starbucks' strategy.

Starbucks earns revenue through three segments: North America (74% of revenues, inclusive of the U.S. and Canada), International (21%, inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean), and Channel Development (5%, branded packaged goods and ready-to-drink beverages sold outside stores). Under company-operated stores, beverages represented 73% of retail sales mix in fiscal 2025, followed by food at 23%. Licensed stores generate lower gross margins but higher operating margins, with licensees paying royalties and purchasing branded products. Channel Development operates substantially under the Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé S.A., which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods; ready-to-drink products operate under collaborative relationships with PepsiCo and Nestlé. The Starbucks Rewards loyalty program and Starbucks Card are central to driving repeat visits and customer retention across North America, China, and Japan.

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Starbucks faces structurally elevated dependence on arabica coffee, which trades at a premium above the 'C' commodity price and is subject to weather volatility, disease, crop disease, and speculative trading — with droughts and frosts in Brazil cited as past price drivers. In May 2026, the company disclosed via Form 8-K that its Board approved further restructuring under the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy, targeting $2 billion in cost savings, with approximately $400 million in restructuring charges expected (roughly $280 million non-cash). International licensed operations are concentrated among a few large regional licensees, and the 10-K notes that if Nestlé fails to meet its obligations or support the brand, it could materially impact Channel Development results.

See also: Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants

From Starbucks Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17

Recent Developments — Starbucks Corporation

Generated 2026-06-17T09:02:27Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202642d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%)
Target reached (-3.9% upside)
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)77.5
P/E (Fwd)33.7
Mkt Cap$115.8B
EV/EBITDA25.7
Profit Mgn3.9%
ROE
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta0.98
Dividend2.44%
Rating analysts47

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.81neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$40-60.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicNorth America74%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our North America operating segment, which accounted for approximately 74% of total net revenues in fiscal year 2025'
  • MEDIUMcounterpartyNestlé
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our Channel Development business is heavily reliant on Nestlé, which holds global rights to distribute certain Starbucks branded packaged goods'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-15Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Board approved further restructuring under 'Back to Starbucks' strategy: ~$400M charges expected (~$280M non-cash), targeting $2B cost savings via streamlining support organization and reducing Starbucks Reserve/Roastery operational complexity. Majority of actions to complete by end of fiscal 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.4
Net Margin
1.9
Operating Margin
3.4
Current Ratio
3.7
Roa
4.9
Moat
4.9
Piotroski F
6.7
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -87% FCF/NINo competitive moat

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.1
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
1.5
Value Rank
2.3
Growth Rank
5.5

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
1.1
Forward Pe
3.3
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.6
Ps
8.3
Forward P/E: 33.7xPEG: 1.35
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVE8K SERIOUS 2.05Momentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 42d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $93.64Resistance $107.56

Price Targets

$96
$105
A.Upside+3.3%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.9% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (42d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is SBUX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $102.00: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Rich valuation. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 49, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $96.30. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the SBUX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $105.41 (+3.7% upside). Prior stop was $96.30. Stop-loss: $96.30.

What are the risks of investing in SBUX?

Concentration risk — Geographic: North America (74.0%); Target reached (-3.9% upside); Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0).

Is SBUX overvalued or undervalued?

Starbucks Corporation trades at a P/E of 77.5 (forward 33.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about SBUX?

47 analysts cover SBUX with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Starbucks Corporation do?Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with...

Starbucks operates 40,990 coffeehouses in 89 markets — 21,514 company-operated (52%) and 19,476 licensed (48%) — with North America generating 74% of total net revenues and company-operated stores generating 83% of total net revenues in fiscal 2025. Revenue comes from coffeehouse sales (beverages 73% of retail mix), licensed store royalties and product sales (12% of revenues), and Channel Development (5% of revenues) primarily through a Global Coffee Alliance with Nestlé.

Related stocks: YUM (Yum! Brands, Inc.) · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) · QSR (Restaurant Brands International) · MCD (McDonald's Corporation) · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.)
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