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Marriott International (MAR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $361.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.9% away).

We are a worldwide franchisor, operator, and licensor of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties under a portfolio of compelling brands at different price and service points. Consistent with our focus on franchising, management, and licensing, we own or lease... Read more

$361.49+3.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#5 of 8 Lodging
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.93%
IncomeYield0.83%(5y avg 1.29%)Payout28.06%sustainable
Stop $344.61Target $372.40(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$377.42+4.4%24 analysts
$372.40our TP
$361.49price
$377.42mean
$272
$446

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $361.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.9% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst cluster(8), earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Marriott International

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.2 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (4.9% away)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)37.0
P/E (Fwd)27.0
Mkt Cap$93.1B
EV/EBITDA23.2
Profit Mgn36.0%
ROE
Rev Growth12.6%
Beta1.11
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts31

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.10bearish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$340-5.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
1.4
Pe
3.4
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.4
Forward Pe
4.6
Forward P/E: 27.0xPEG: 2.14

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.3
Revenue Growth
5.6
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(8)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $345.38Resistance $380.00

Price Targets

$345
$372
A.Upside+3.0%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.0% upside)
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MAR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $361.49 — A.R:R is negative (-1.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (4.9% away). Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $344.61. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.

What is the MAR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $372.40 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $344.61. Stop-loss: $344.61.

What are the risks of investing in MAR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (4.9% away); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is MAR overvalued or undervalued?

Marriott International trades at a P/E of 37.0 (forward 27.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MAR?

31 analysts cover MAR with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $377.

What does Marriott International do?We are a worldwide franchisor, operator, and licensor of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties...

We are a worldwide franchisor, operator, and licensor of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties under a portfolio of compelling brands at different price and service points. Consistent with our focus on franchising, management, and licensing, we own or lease very few of our lodging properties (less than one percent of our system).

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