Value
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.2 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.6x
- ▸PEG: 2.17
MAR · Why this verdict
Why Marriott International (MAR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marriott is a high-quality hospitality franchise with 36% margins and a strong Piotroski score, backed by a mostly consistent earnings-beat record — but with only 0.5% headroom to the resistance target, a 31x forward multiple on modest growth, and falling volume beneath a rising price, the risk/reward is clearly unfavorable and the setup favors patience over new commitment at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter a beat, though the average positive surprise is just 2.4% — a thin margin of beat that does not suggest deeply conservative guidance and leaves little buffer against an estimate miss. Earnings | Average EPS surprise exceeds 5% over the next 4 quarters, indicating a more meaningful earnings cushion than the current thin beat rate. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe miss appears as one isolated quarter between three beats — a broadly positive delivery pattern for a consumer cyclical business — and the most recent quarter's 6.5% beat suggests the trend may be improving. | ||
The business generates margins of 36% and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, placing it among the highest-quality names in its peer group — a profile that historically commands a sustained premium valuation. Quality breakdown | Operating margins hold above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable through the travel cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only 70% of net income — an earnings quality flag — which means reported income may overstate the true cash-generating power of the business at the current margin level. | ||
With just 0.5% headroom to the near-term price target, the stock trading within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and a reward-to-risk ratio of only 0.11-to-1, virtually all near-term good news appears priced in and the entry geometry is highly unattractive. Price targets | Price pulls back at least 5% from the current level, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk ratio for new entrants. | →Stable |
| CounterA high-quality franchise near its 52-week high can continue making new highs if the underlying business delivers above-expectation results in coming quarters. | ||
At a forward P/E of roughly 31x and a PEG ratio of 2.38, the valuation prices in meaningful growth that is not yet evident in the current revenue and earnings trajectory, leaving the multiple exposed if growth expectations are revised down. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth re-accelerates or as the market re-prices growth expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterA premium franchise with best-in-class margins and a high Piotroski score can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods, as the quality premium may persist absent a specific negative catalyst. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter a beat, though the average positive surprise is just 2.4% — a thin margin of beat that does not suggest deeply conservative guidance and leaves little buffer against an estimate miss.
↓DeterioratingEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise exceeds 5% over the next 4 quarters, indicating a more meaningful earnings cushion than the current thin beat rate.
CounterThe miss appears as one isolated quarter between three beats — a broadly positive delivery pattern for a consumer cyclical business — and the most recent quarter's 6.5% beat suggests the trend may be improving.
The business generates margins of 36% and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, placing it among the highest-quality names in its peer group — a profile that historically commands a sustained premium valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins hold above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable through the travel cycle.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only 70% of net income — an earnings quality flag — which means reported income may overstate the true cash-generating power of the business at the current margin level.
With just 0.5% headroom to the near-term price target, the stock trading within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and a reward-to-risk ratio of only 0.11-to-1, virtually all near-term good news appears priced in and the entry geometry is highly unattractive.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back at least 5% from the current level, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk ratio for new entrants.
CounterA high-quality franchise near its 52-week high can continue making new highs if the underlying business delivers above-expectation results in coming quarters.
At a forward P/E of roughly 31x and a PEG ratio of 2.38, the valuation prices in meaningful growth that is not yet evident in the current revenue and earnings trajectory, leaving the multiple exposed if growth expectations are revised down.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth re-accelerates or as the market re-prices growth expectations.
CounterA premium franchise with best-in-class margins and a high Piotroski score can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods, as the quality premium may persist absent a specific negative catalyst.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 6.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 5.4 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 9.9 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,759,300 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.3 |
| support resistance | 4.0 |
| 52w position | 8.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.9 |
| days to cover | 7.8 |
| volatility | 7.0 |
| put call | 8.2 |
| implied vol | 6.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
Catalyst
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 9 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (5)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.5=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:9d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.50
Upside
-7.5%
Downside
5.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 46 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 9d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5. Top dim: Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4; weakest: Value at 3.1. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 7.4, Insider at 7.3, and Quality at 7.2; the weakest are Value at 3.1, Growth at 3.9, and Technical at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.50 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Strong Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful quality deterioration.
- P2Minimal Upside Near Term Target
Trip ifUpside to the near-term price target expands beyond 8% from current levels, restoring a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.
- P3Earnings Beat Record Thin Margin
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise exceeds 5% over 4 consecutive quarters, proving guidance discipline is more conservative than currently indicated.
- P4Rich Multiple Modest Growth Mismatch
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x as either earnings growth accelerates or the stock re-rates.