Value
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.1 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.3 |
| PEG | 4.3 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 28.5x
- ▸PEG: 2.19
MAR · Why this verdict
Why Marriott International (MAR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter a beat, though the average positive surprise is just 2.4% — a thin margin of beat that does not suggest deeply conservative guidance and leaves little buffer against an estimate miss. Earnings | Average EPS surprise exceeds 5% over the next 4 quarters, indicating a more meaningful earnings cushion than the current thin beat rate. | →Stable |
| CounterThe miss appears as one isolated quarter between three beats — a broadly positive delivery pattern for a consumer cyclical business — and the most recent quarter's 6.5% beat suggests the trend may be improving. | ||
The business generates margins of 36% and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, placing it among the highest-quality names in its peer group — a profile that historically commands a sustained premium valuation. Quality breakdown | Operating margins hold above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable through the travel cycle. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow converts at only 70% of net income — an earnings quality flag — which means reported income may overstate the true cash-generating power of the business at the current margin level. | ||
With just 0.5% headroom to the near-term price target, the stock trading within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and a reward-to-risk ratio of only 0.11-to-1, virtually all near-term good news appears priced in and the entry geometry is highly unattractive. Price targets | Price pulls back at least 5% from the current level, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk ratio for new entrants. | →Stable |
| CounterA high-quality franchise near its 52-week high can continue making new highs if the underlying business delivers above-expectation results in coming quarters. | ||
At a forward P/E of roughly 31x and a PEG ratio of 2.38, the valuation prices in meaningful growth that is not yet evident in the current revenue and earnings trajectory, leaving the multiple exposed if growth expectations are revised down. Valuation breakdown | Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth re-accelerates or as the market re-prices growth expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterA premium franchise with best-in-class margins and a high Piotroski score can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods, as the quality premium may persist absent a specific negative catalyst. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, with the most recent quarter a beat, though the average positive surprise is just 2.4% — a thin margin of beat that does not suggest deeply conservative guidance and leaves little buffer against an estimate miss.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Average EPS surprise exceeds 5% over the next 4 quarters, indicating a more meaningful earnings cushion than the current thin beat rate.
CounterThe miss appears as one isolated quarter between three beats — a broadly positive delivery pattern for a consumer cyclical business — and the most recent quarter's 6.5% beat suggests the trend may be improving.
The business generates margins of 36% and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski financial health scale, placing it among the highest-quality names in its peer group — a profile that historically commands a sustained premium valuation.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins hold above 30% for 4 consecutive quarters, confirming that the quality profile is durable through the travel cycle.
CounterFree cash flow converts at only 70% of net income — an earnings quality flag — which means reported income may overstate the true cash-generating power of the business at the current margin level.
With just 0.5% headroom to the near-term price target, the stock trading within 2.5% of its 52-week high, and a reward-to-risk ratio of only 0.11-to-1, virtually all near-term good news appears priced in and the entry geometry is highly unattractive.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price pulls back at least 5% from the current level, restoring a more favorable reward-to-risk ratio for new entrants.
CounterA high-quality franchise near its 52-week high can continue making new highs if the underlying business delivers above-expectation results in coming quarters.
At a forward P/E of roughly 31x and a PEG ratio of 2.38, the valuation prices in meaningful growth that is not yet evident in the current revenue and earnings trajectory, leaving the multiple exposed if growth expectations are revised down.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward P/E compresses below 22x as earnings growth re-accelerates or as the market re-prices growth expectations.
CounterA premium franchise with best-in-class margins and a high Piotroski score can sustain elevated multiples for extended periods, as the quality premium may persist absent a specific negative catalyst.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Marriott is a high-quality hospitality franchise with 36% margins and a strong Piotroski score, backed by a mostly consistent earnings-beat record — but with only 0.5% headroom to the resistance target, a 31x forward multiple on modest growth, and falling volume beneath a rising price, the risk/reward is clearly unfavorable and the setup favors patience over new commitment at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 6.5 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 1.8 |
| FCF quality | 5.3 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 36%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 70% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
3.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.6 |
| EPS growth | 2.3 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 8.2 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 2.8 |
- ▸Oversold in uptrend (RSI 27)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 5.3 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $2,759,300 (0.003% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 1.3 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 7.5 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
8.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 8.1 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.7 |
| days to cover | 6.2 |
| volatility | 6.2 |
| put call | 7.7 |
| implied vol | 6.5 |
| beta | 6.6 |
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.7 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-1.60
Upside
-8.1%
Downside
5.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.1 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-1.6=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.60 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.3, Quality at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Value at 3.1, Momentum at 3.6, and Growth at 3.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.60 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1High Quality Franchise Strong Margins
Trip ifOperating margin falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a meaningful quality deterioration.
- P2Minimal Upside Near Term Target
Trip ifUpside to the near-term price target expands beyond 8% from current levels, restoring a favorable reward-to-risk ratio.
- P3Earnings Beat Record Thin Margin
Trip ifAverage EPS surprise exceeds 5% over 4 consecutive quarters, proving guidance discipline is more conservative than currently indicated.
- P4Rich Multiple Modest Growth Mismatch
Trip ifForward P/E compresses below 22x as either earnings growth accelerates or the stock re-rates.