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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $320.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Hilton Worldwide is a global hospitality company with 9,158 properties and 1,351,351 rooms in 143 countries as of December 31, 2025, operating through a management and franchise segment and an ownership segment across luxury to economy chain scales. Revenue comes primarily from... Read more

$320.70+5.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#3 of 8 Lodging
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.34%
IncomeYield0.19%(5y avg 0.80%)Payout9.16%sustainable
Stop $305.44Target $337.10(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$347.33+8.3%24 analysts
$337.10our TP
$320.70price
$347.33mean
$260
$390

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $320.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.3
P/E (Fwd)30.4
Mkt Cap$72.0B
EV/EBITDA28.1
Profit Mgn30.4%
ROE
Rev Growth11.0%
Beta1.07
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.16bullish
IV39%normal
Max Pain$310-3.3% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-05-05Item 5.02LOW
    Christopher Silcock, President Global Brands & Commercial Services, intends to retire in Q1 2027. Leadership updates announced: Laura Fuentes moves to Chief Brand Officer; Chris Wilroy joins Executive Committee; outside search launched for new Chief Technology Officer.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Ps
0.6
Pe
2.6
Forward Pe
3.9
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
4.9
Forward P/E: 30.4xPEG: 1.57Expensive valuation
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60EARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
48 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $308.06Resistance $343.98

Price Targets

$305
$337
A.Upside+5.1%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-2.5% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLT stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $320.70 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $305.44. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $337.10 (+5.1% upside). Prior stop was $305.44. Stop-loss: $305.44.

What are the risks of investing in HLT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Expensive valuation.

Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.3 (forward 30.4). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HLT?

32 analysts cover HLT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $347.

What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?Hilton Worldwide is a global hospitality company with 9,158 properties and 1,351,351 rooms in 143 countries as of...

Hilton Worldwide is a global hospitality company with 9,158 properties and 1,351,351 rooms in 143 countries as of December 31, 2025, operating through a management and franchise segment and an ownership segment across luxury to economy chain scales. Revenue comes primarily from management and franchise fees charged to third-party hotel owners, plus licensing fees and nightly room sales at 46 owned/leased properties. Hilton Honors has 243 million members, up 15% year-over-year.

Related stocks: HTHT (H World Group Limited) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) · MAR (Marriott International) · H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation)