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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging

Wait for pullback to $312.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $323.65. Engine's entry $312.00 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation.

Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143 countries as of Dec 31, 2025. It earns management fees, franchise royalties, and licensing fees from third-party hotel owners; Hilton Honors loyalty program has... Read more

$323.65+8.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#2 of 8 Lodging
Entry $312.00(Ma50 Sticky)Stop $296.05Target $337.86(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$346.58+7.1%24 analysts
$337.86our TP
$323.65price
$346.58mean
$250
$390

Wait for pullback to $312.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $323.65. Engine's entry $312.00 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.49, quality 8.8/10, growth 9.5/10). Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, news boost analyst cluster(4), earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Strong growth profile
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)48.1
P/E (Fwd)30.1
Mkt Cap$71.6B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn29.7%
ROE
Rev Growth175.8%
Beta
Dividend0.19%
Rating analysts32

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.00neutral
IV39%normal
Max Pain$205-36.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ps
0.8
Pe
2.6
Forward Pe
4.0
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.0
Forward P/E: 30.1xPEG: 1.49
GatesMomentum 2.5<4.5A.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.40NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(4)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $299.06Resistance $344.75

Price Targets

$296
$312
$338
A.Upside+4.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.8% upside)
! Momentum score 2.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HLT stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $312.00. Weak momentum — blocks BUY_NOW at $323.65. Engine's entry $312.00 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Growth is cheap relative to earnings, but the chart hasn't confirmed yet (PEG 1.49, quality 8.8/10, growth 9.5/10). Target $337.86 (+4.4%), stop $296.05 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HLT stock price target?

Take-profit target: $337.86 (+8.2% upside). Target $337.86 (+4.4%), stop $296.05 (−9.3%), Setup A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $296.05.

What are the risks of investing in HLT?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is HLT overvalued or undervalued?

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. trades at a P/E of 48.1 (forward 30.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about HLT?

32 analysts cover HLT with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $347.

What does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. do?Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143...

Hilton Worldwide is one of the largest global hospitality companies with 9,158 properties (1,351,351 rooms) across 143 countries as of Dec 31, 2025. It earns management fees, franchise royalties, and licensing fees from third-party hotel owners; Hilton Honors loyalty program has 243 million members, a 15% increase year-over-year.

Related stocks: HTHT (H World Group Limited) · H (Hyatt Hotels Corporation) · IHG (Intercontinental Hotels Group) · MAR (Marriott International)