Allegiant Travel screens cheaply at a forward earnings multiple of about 9x and a PEG of 0.28, but free cash flow is currently negative as a percentage of revenue and overall quality has fallen materially below any investment-grade threshold; a 7.2% gap higher adds technical overextension risk, and the reward-to-risk geometry remains unfavorable — making patience the prudent posture while fundamentals improve.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Valuation Multiples→Stable
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality Concern→Stable
- Lumpy Earnings Delivery↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Airlines
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.40: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.73; Below-average business quality.
We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. Our vision is to be the leading airline in the communities we serve, offering reliable, nonstop travel at unbeatable value. We... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.40: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-16Recent Developments — Allegiant Travel Company
Latest news
- NEWS Susquehanna Maintains Neutral on Allegiant Travel, Lowers Price Target to $85 — benzinga Oct 7, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Airlines For America CEO Sununu Opposes U.S. Diesel Export Ban, Saying It Could Lead To Higher Prices — benzinga Sep 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Airline Industry Group Airlines For America Opposes Allowing Chinese Carriers To Add More Flights To U.S — benzinga Sep 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS U.S. Government Report Says Federal Aviation Administration Needs To Take New Steps To Address Threats To Aircraft Commu — benzinga Sep 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Allegiant Travel Added Two New Year-round Nonstop Routes From Flint Bishop International Airport To Orlando Internationa — benzinga Sep 1, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-10-16T11:32:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $70.40: Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 4.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 11%; Elevated put/call ratio: 4.73; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 33, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $65.47. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $102.16 (+45.1% upside). Prior stop was $65.47. Stop-loss: $65.47.
Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0).
Allegiant Travel Company trades at a P/E of 61.9 (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts cover ALGT with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $117.
What does Allegiant Travel Company do?We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of...
We are a leisure travel company focused on providing travel and leisure services and products to residents of under-served cities in the United States. Our vision is to be the leading airline in the communities we serve, offering reliable, nonstop travel at unbeatable value. We were founded in 1997 and, in conjunction with our initial public offering in 2006, we incorporated in the state of Nevada.