Landstar System generates free cash flow at 148% of net income and carries a strong financial health score, but the stock sits just below its resistance ceiling with a reward-to-risk ratio of 0.32 to 1, back-to-back earnings misses in the two most recent periods before the latest quarter, and elevated put-to-call positioning — the setup favors watching rather than buying.
Thesis pillars
- Strong Cash Conversion Thin Margins→Stable
- Inconsistent Earnings Delivery↓Deteriorating
- Unattractive Risk Reward Geometry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Landstar System, Inc. (LSTR) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly held company since its initial public offering in March 1993. The principal executive offices of Landstar System, Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries and... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About Landstar System, Inc.
About Landstar System, Inc.
Landstar System generated $4.7 billion in consolidated revenue during fiscal year 2025, with truck transportation accounting for 91% of that total and BCO Independent Contractors and Truck Brokerage Carriers contributing 38% and 53% of revenue, respectively. The company operates through two segments — transportation logistics and insurance — and provides services principally throughout the United States and cross-border into Canada and Mexico through a network of approximately 960 independent commission sales agents linked to over 70,000 third-party capacity providers.
Landstar earns revenue on a per-shipment basis by matching shipper demand with independent capacity, keeping asset investment limited to a fleet of roughly 17,400 trailers used primarily by BCO Independent Contractors. Agents earn commissions tied contractually to revenue or margin, and the 457 Million Dollar Agents who each generated at least $1 million in fiscal 2025 collectively represented 95% of consolidated revenue. Two agencies alone accounted for approximately 21% of consolidated revenue, a structural concentration the 10-K describes explicitly as a material risk. The customer base is broader: no single customer exceeded 8% of 2025 revenue, and the top 100 customers together represented 46% of total revenue. Competitors for agent relationships include other asset-light brokers; competitors for BCO Independent Contractors include asset-heavy truckload carriers.
Show full overview
Landstar's freight cycle exposure is acute because a significant portion of truckload services is priced in the spot market over irregular routes, making revenue per load the primary lever for BCO Independent Contractor retention — the 10-K notes that sequential strengthening or weakening of revenue per load historically has had a significant impact on BCO Independent Contractor turnover. Two of its largest agencies conduct administrative operations in Ukraine, where the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted staffing and infrastructure. If either agency suffers material operational disruption, the concentration risk embedded in that 21% combined revenue share could weigh on Landstar's results in ways that the company's broad customer diversification would not offset.
See also: Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logistics
From Landstar System, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 24, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-16Recent Developments — Landstar System, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Landstar System, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $196.5, Implies 6% Upside - TradingView — TradingView negative
- NEWS Landstar System, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Cut to $197.93, Implies 7% Upside - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Is Landstar System Inc (LSTR) Overvalued After Q2 Earnings Miss? - GuruFocus — GuruFocus negative
- NEWS LSTR Maintained by Susquehanna -- Price Target Raised to $185 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Landstar System (NASDAQ:LSTR) Stock Price Expected to Rise, Susquehanna Analyst Says - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
Generated 2026-08-16T22:17:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $190.19 — A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (3). Chart setup: RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $176.88. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $210.85 (-7.1% upside). Prior stop was $176.88. Stop-loss: $176.88.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (3).
Landstar System, Inc. trades at a P/E of 49.3 (forward 24.9). TrendMatrix value score: 4.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover LSTR with a consensus score of 3.4/5. Average price target: $196.
What does Landstar System, Inc. do?Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly...
Landstar System, Inc. was incorporated in January 1991 under the laws of the State of Delaware and has been a publicly held company since its initial public offering in March 1993. The principal executive offices of Landstar System, Inc. (collectively with its subsidiaries and other affiliated companies referred to herein as "Landstar" or the "Company," unless the context otherwise requires) is located at 13410 Sutton Park Drive South, Jacksonville, Florida 32224 and its telephone number is (...