Four consecutive earnings beats and industry-leading 22% revenue growth demonstrate real operating momentum, but free cash flow is negative and the shares trade at a forward P/E of 41.4 times with a PEG of 3.78 — a combination that prices in considerable execution and leaves little margin of safety.
Thesis pillars
- Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- Earnings Beat Consistency↑Improving
- Industry Leading Revenue Growth→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026· older than 90 days
Lincoln Educational Services Co (LINC) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV Programs (U.S. Department of Education) (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Skilled Trades (52.0%).
Lincoln Educational Services provides career-oriented postsecondary education across 22 campuses in 12 states under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology and Nashville Auto Diesel College brands, offering programs in skilled trades, automotive, health... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV Programs (U.S. Department of Education) (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Skilled Trades (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Lincoln Educational Services Co
About Lincoln Educational Services Co
Lincoln Educational Services enrolled 17,046 students across 22 campuses in 12 states as of December 31, 2025, generating $518.2 million in revenue, up 17.8% from the prior year. Skilled trades programs -- electrical, HVAC, welding and CNC machining -- represented 52% of average enrollment, followed by automotive at 26% and health sciences/IT programs at 22%, with approximately 85% of the company's revenue derived from federal Title IV student financial aid programs.
Lincoln generates tuition revenue from diploma, certificate and associate degree programs ranging 27 to 104 weeks, with tuition from $14,500 to $44,000, funded primarily through federal student aid administered under Title IV of the Higher Education Act. The company recruits through digital marketing, referrals (about 11% of new student starts) and a field sales team of roughly 286 campus-based and regional representatives, with 23% of 2025 students recruited directly out of high school. Lincoln operates two reportable segments, Campus Operations and Transitional (the latter empty as of December 31, 2025, following the January 2025 sale of its Summerlin, Las Vegas campus), and is expanding with new campuses in Rowlett, Texas and Hicksville, New York expected to open in 2026 and 2027, respectively. Approximately 270 of the company's 2,590 employees are covered by collective bargaining agreements expiring between 2026 and 2030.
Show full overview
Lincoln's Title IV dependency creates two distinct binary compliance thresholds beyond ordinary accreditation risk: the DOE's 90/10 Rule, which would make an institution immediately ineligible for Title IV funding if federal-funds revenue exceeds 90% of total revenue for two consecutive years, and gainful-employment debt-to-earnings tests that could strip Title IV eligibility program-by-program if graduates' debt-to-earnings ratios fail regulatory benchmarks for two of three consecutive years. With Title IV already funding about 85% of Lincoln's revenue, either threshold leaves limited room before a compliance failure at even a subset of programs could force enrollment declines the company has flagged as materially adverse to its business.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Services
From Lincoln Educational Services Co's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Aug 9, 2026
Recent Developments — Lincoln Educational Services Co
Latest news
- NEWS Lincoln Educational (LINC) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - StockStory — StockStory Aug 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Lincoln Educational (LINC) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - TradingView — TradingView Aug 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Lincoln Educational (LINC) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - tradingview.com — tradingview.com Aug 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Lincoln Educational (LINC) Reports Q2: Everything You Need To Know Ahead Of Earnings - FinancialContent — FinancialContent Aug 9, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Lincoln Educational Services (NASDAQ:LINC) Sees Unusually-High Trading Volume - Here's Why - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Aug 6, 2026 neutral
Latest item Aug 9, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:49:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHregulatoryTitle IV Programs (U.S. Department of Education)85%10-K Item 1A: 'As we received approximately 85% of our revenue (calculated based on cash receipts) from Title IV Programs during the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025'
- HIGHProductSkilled Trades52%10-K Item 1: 'skilled trades were our largest area of study, representing 52% of our total average student enrollment.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $20.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV Programs (U.S. Department of Education) (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Skilled Trades (52.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $19.14. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $41.24 (+105.1% upside). Prior stop was $19.14. Stop-loss: $19.14.
Concentration risk — Regulatory: Title IV Programs (U.S. Department of Education) (85.0%); Concentration risk — Product: Skilled Trades (52.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
Lincoln Educational Services Co trades at a P/E of 27.5 (forward 19.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts rate LINC, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $47.
What does Lincoln Educational Services Co do?Lincoln Educational Services provides career-oriented postsecondary education across 22 campuses in 12 states under the...
Lincoln Educational Services provides career-oriented postsecondary education across 22 campuses in 12 states under the Lincoln Technical Institute, Lincoln College of Technology and Nashville Auto Diesel College brands, offering programs in skilled trades, automotive, health sciences and information technology. The company enrolled 17,046 students as of December 31, 2025 and generated $518.2 million in revenue, up 17.8% year-over-year, with skilled trades comprising 52% of average enrollment and approximately 85% of revenue derived from federal Title IV student financial aid programs.