Value
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.8 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 5.0 |
| PEG | 4.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 25.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.96
JCI · Why this verdict
Why Johnson Controls International (JCI) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.4/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 5%, reflecting a management team that has calibrated guidance conservatively and delivered consistently above the bar. Earnings | Earnings per share surprise remains above 3% for at least two additional consecutive quarters, sustaining the execution track record. | →Stable |
| CounterAn average surprise of 5% is modest, and with each successive beat the street recalibrates expectations upward, narrowing the room to outperform; the streak may be approaching the point where the bar is too high to clear. | ||
With approximately 0.1% of headroom remaining to the near-term resistance target, the stock has essentially reached the ceiling for this move; the setup favors waiting for a pullback to a lower entry before the next leg rather than committing capital at current levels. Price targets | Analyst consensus raises the price target to more than 15% above the current price, creating fresh upside and resetting the entry geometry. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has shown the ability to break above resistance on strong momentum; a continued breakout on positive news flow could render the 0.1% headroom argument moot as analysts revise targets higher. | ||
A golden cross formation, price above all major moving averages, a bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume combine to create a constructive technical picture that reflects institutional accumulation and sustained intermediate-term momentum. Engine gate (passed) | Price sustains above the 200-day moving average with the MACD remaining in positive territory for at least three consecutive months. | →Stable |
| CounterWith the stock near its 52-week high and momentum indicators elevated, any negative surprise could trigger a sharp momentum-driven reversal; the higher the price relative to moving averages, the more asymmetric the downside on a negative catalyst. | ||
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a situation where a high headline yield is not supported by sufficient cash flow coverage—which introduces downside risk if the payout is reduced or suspended and removes an income-oriented support bid. Catalyst breakdown | Dividend coverage improves to a fully supported level, removing the unsafe yield designation and eliminating the payout reduction risk. | →Stable |
| CounterA strong earnings beat streak and positive cash flow conversion suggest the company has the operational capacity to sustain the dividend near term; the unsafe flag may reflect a conservative coverage threshold rather than an imminent cut. | ||
The company has beaten consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters with an average positive surprise of approximately 5%, reflecting a management team that has calibrated guidance conservatively and delivered consistently above the bar.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings per share surprise remains above 3% for at least two additional consecutive quarters, sustaining the execution track record.
CounterAn average surprise of 5% is modest, and with each successive beat the street recalibrates expectations upward, narrowing the room to outperform; the streak may be approaching the point where the bar is too high to clear.
With approximately 0.1% of headroom remaining to the near-term resistance target, the stock has essentially reached the ceiling for this move; the setup favors waiting for a pullback to a lower entry before the next leg rather than committing capital at current levels.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Analyst consensus raises the price target to more than 15% above the current price, creating fresh upside and resetting the entry geometry.
CounterThe stock has shown the ability to break above resistance on strong momentum; a continued breakout on positive news flow could render the 0.1% headroom argument moot as analysts revise targets higher.
A golden cross formation, price above all major moving averages, a bullish MACD, and rising on-balance volume combine to create a constructive technical picture that reflects institutional accumulation and sustained intermediate-term momentum.
→StableEngine gate (passed)
- Expectation
- Price sustains above the 200-day moving average with the MACD remaining in positive territory for at least three consecutive months.
CounterWith the stock near its 52-week high and momentum indicators elevated, any negative surprise could trigger a sharp momentum-driven reversal; the higher the price relative to moving averages, the more asymmetric the downside on a negative catalyst.
The dividend yield has been flagged as potentially unsafe—a situation where a high headline yield is not supported by sufficient cash flow coverage—which introduces downside risk if the payout is reduced or suspended and removes an income-oriented support bid.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Dividend coverage improves to a fully supported level, removing the unsafe yield designation and eliminating the payout reduction risk.
CounterA strong earnings beat streak and positive cash flow conversion suggest the company has the operational capacity to sustain the dividend near term; the unsafe flag may reflect a conservative coverage threshold rather than an imminent cut.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Four consecutive quarterly earnings beats and strong technical momentum confirm operational consistency, but the stock has essentially reached its near-term target with only 0.1% of headroom remaining; the setup favors patience for a better entry rather than immediate commitment at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.5 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 3.3 |
| Op margin | 5.6 |
| Net margin | 7.2 |
| Current ratio | 4.1 |
| FCF quality | 6.1 |
| Moat | 6.2 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 9.8 |
Momentum
2.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 4.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $13,406,472 (0.015% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.5 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 6.3 |
Technical
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.8 |
| support resistance | 8.0 |
| 52w position | 8.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.2 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 2.9 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 5.7 |
| beta | 5.7 |
| debt equity | 6.8 |
Catalyst
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.08
Upside
-0.6%
Downside
7.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAggressive — Beta 1.34>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Technical at 8.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.9<4.5, ASYMMETRY:-0.1=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.08 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 8.1, Growth at 7.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Momentum at 2.9, Peer rank at 3.9, and Value at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.08 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Consistent Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% in any single quarter, ending the 4-quarter consecutive beat streak.
- P2Price Exhausted At Target
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target is raised to more than 15% above the current price of $146.06 within 2 quarters.
- P3Strong Technical Breakout Momentum
Trip ifPrice closes below the 200-day moving average for more than 5 consecutive trading days, confirming the momentum has reversed.
- P4Dividend Yield Trap Payout Risk
Trip ifDividend is reduced by more than 20% or suspended, confirming the unsafe yield flag.