John B. Sanfilippo & Son has strung together a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and screens as attractively valued, but the stock has already reached its price target near a 52-week high, leaving an unfavorable stated risk/reward, an overbought technical setup, and a lingering earnings-quality gap.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- Overbought Near 52 Week High↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Quality Cash Conversion Gap↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 5, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Aug 19, 2026
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup · Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: nut and bar products (93.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).
John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and nutrition bars, mostly under customers' private brands plus its Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts labels. It sells to about... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: nut and bar products (93.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 87d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Walmart accounted for 40% of net sales at John B. Sanfilippo & Son in fiscal 2025, up from 36% in fiscal 2023, while Target contributed 11%. The company sells to roughly 210 customers and employed about 1,900 full-time employees as of June 26, 2025. Nuts and bars, including trail and snack mixes, made up approximately 92% of gross sales across the last three fiscal years.
The company processes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and manufactures bars, selling mostly under private brands alongside its Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts labels. Sales run through three channels: consumer, which is the largest by sales, commercial ingredient users such as bakery and ice cream makers, and contract manufacturing for other food companies. A vertically integrated model for pecans, peanuts and walnuts, from grower procurement through shelling and packaging, lets the company buy inshell nuts directly rather than on the open market. Material costs, including nuts, packaging and oats, represented 73% of cost of sales in fiscal 2025, and 28% of nut and dried fruit purchases came from foreign sources, with cashews imported from Vietnam and West Africa. Nut competitors include Hormel Foods (Planters) and Diamond, while bar rivals include General Mills (Nature Valley), PepsiCo (Quaker) and Mondelez (CLIF). A network of about 55 independent brokers and distributors supplements the internal sales team.
Show full overview
Customer concentration is the sharper exposure. The 10-K says the company depends on a few significant customers for a majority of net sales, especially in the consumer channel, and Walmart's share rose four points in two years. Some of the largest private brand customers award business through periodic bidding in which a single successful bidder wins the product until the next round, so a bid set too high may cut sales volume sharply. Retail consolidation and customer private brand expansion add pricing pressure, and the company cannot hedge nut commodity prices because no suitable futures market exists.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 18, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-11-02Recent Developments — John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) Misses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son (NASDAQ:JBSS) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Estimates By $0.42 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo: Fiscal Q1 Earnings Snapshot - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo: Fiscal Q1 Earnings Snapshot - KTVB — KTVB neutral
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) Releases Q1 2027 Earnings: Revenue Declines and Profit Slips - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
Generated 2026-11-02T12:03:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart41%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Walmart Inc. accounted for approximately 41% of our net sales for fiscal 2026'
- LOWCustomerTarget12%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Target Corporation accounted for approximately 12% of our net sales for fiscal 2026'
- HIGHProductnut and bar products93%10-K Item 1: 'these nut and bar products accounted for approximately 93% of our gross sales for fiscal 2026'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-10-02Item 5.02MEDIUMEffective Oct 1, 2026, CEO Jeffrey Sanfilippo became Executive Chair; Jasper Sanfilippo Jr. (COO) became CEO; CFO Frank Pellegrino became President and CFO with a $700,000 salary. Planned transition announced July 16, 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Revenue shrinking — -3.5% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $53.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: nut and bar products (93.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 18, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $52.03. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $79.90 (+48.2% upside). Prior stop was $52.03. Stop-loss: $52.03.
Concentration risk — Product: nut and bar products (93.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Weak growth.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 11.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover JBSS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $94.
What does John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. do?John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and...
John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and nutrition bars, mostly under customers' private brands plus its Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts labels. It sells to about 200 customers through consumer, commercial ingredient and contract manufacturing channels, with Walmart at roughly 41% of fiscal 2026 net sales. Vertical integration in pecans, peanuts and walnuts is cited as its edge.