John B. Sanfilippo & Son has strung together a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and screens as attractively valued, but the stock has already reached its price target near a 52-week high, leaving an unfavorable stated risk/reward, an overbought technical setup, and a lingering earnings-quality gap.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- Overbought Near 52 Week High↑Improving
- Earnings Quality Cash Conversion Gap→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. is one of the leading processors and distributors of peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts, almonds, and other nuts in the United States, also manufacturing snack and nutrition bars under brands including Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand,... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 35d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son derives approximately 40% of its net sales from Walmart and about 11% from Target, its two most significant customers among roughly 210 total accounts, in fiscal 2025. Raw and processed nuts and bars, including trail and snack mixes, made up about 92% of gross sales over the last three fiscal years, and the company employed approximately 1,900 full-time employees as of June 26, 2025.
Sanfilippo sells through three channels — consumer (retailers, under both its own brands and customers' private brands), commercial ingredient (nut-based inputs sold to bakeries, confectioners, and foodservice), and contract manufacturing (packaging nut and fruit snacks under other companies' labels) — marketed through its own sales department and a network of roughly 55 independent brokers and distributors. The company is vertically integrated for pecans, peanuts, and walnuts, purchasing a majority of those nuts directly from growers rather than on the open market, which it says lowers costs in most crop years but exposes it to the risk of holding inventory acquired above prevailing market prices if conditions shift. Material costs — tree nuts, other commodities, packaging, and ingredients including rolled oats — represented approximately 73% of total cost of sales in fiscal 2025, and for that year all of the company's walnuts, almonds, and peanuts were purchased domestically while about 28% of total nut and dried-fruit purchases by dollar value came from foreign sources, including cashews imported from Vietnam and West African countries.
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Sanfilippo's retailer concentration carries a structural pricing risk beyond the raw percentages: the 10-K discloses that some of its largest private-brand customers award business through a periodic bidding process in which a single winning bidder holds the contract until the next round, so losing a bid to Walmart, Target, or another major account can cut sales volume immediately rather than through gradual erosion. That risk is sharpened by retail consolidation trends the filing flags separately — as large retail customers grow more sophisticated and price-focused, they increasingly favor the number one or number two brand by market share in a category, or their own expanding private-label programs, which could squeeze Sanfilippo's branded and private-brand volume with the same two retailers that already supply roughly half of its net sales.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-23Recent Developments — John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JBSS Q4 EPS $0.71 misses $1.20 estimate; sales beat - scanx.trade — scanx.trade negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son (NASDAQ:JBSS) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.46 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son Fiscal Q4 Earnings Fall, Net Sales Rise - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
Generated 2026-09-23T22:42:01Z.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.69, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $85.00 (+25.6%), stop $64.39 (−5.1%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $85.00 (+25.6% upside). Target $85.00 (+25.6%), stop $64.39 (−5.1%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $64.39.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth; Negative momentum.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover JBSS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $100.
What does John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. do?John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. is one of the leading processors and distributors of peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts,...
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. is one of the leading processors and distributors of peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts, almonds, and other nuts in the United States, also manufacturing snack and nutrition bars under brands including Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts, plus private brands. The company sells to about 210 customers across consumer, commercial ingredient, and contract manufacturing channels, with Walmart accounting for approximately 40% of fiscal 2025 net sales and Target about 11%.