John B. Sanfilippo & Son has strung together a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and screens as attractively valued, but the stock has already reached its price target near a 52-week high, leaving an unfavorable stated risk/reward, an overbought technical setup, and a lingering earnings-quality gap.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation→Stable
- Overbought Near 52 Week High↑Improving
- Earnings Quality Cash Conversion Gap→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: nuts and bars (92.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).
John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and nutrition bars, mostly under private brands plus Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts. It sells to about 210 customers through... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: nuts and bars (92.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 16d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
About John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Walmart accounted for 40% of net sales at John B. Sanfilippo & Son in fiscal 2025, up from 36% in fiscal 2023, while Target contributed 11%. The company sells to roughly 210 customers and employed about 1,900 full-time employees as of June 26, 2025. Nuts and bars, including trail and snack mixes, made up approximately 92% of gross sales across the last three fiscal years.
The company processes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and manufactures bars, selling mostly under private brands alongside its Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts labels. Sales run through three channels: consumer, which is the largest by sales, commercial ingredient users such as bakery and ice cream makers, and contract manufacturing for other food companies. A vertically integrated model for pecans, peanuts and walnuts, from grower procurement through shelling and packaging, lets the company buy inshell nuts directly rather than on the open market. Material costs, including nuts, packaging and oats, represented 73% of cost of sales in fiscal 2025, and 28% of nut and dried fruit purchases came from foreign sources, with cashews imported from Vietnam and West Africa. Nut competitors include Hormel Foods (Planters) and Diamond, while bar rivals include General Mills (Nature Valley), PepsiCo (Quaker) and Mondelez (CLIF). A network of about 55 independent brokers and distributors supplements the internal sales team.
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Customer concentration is the sharper exposure. The 10-K says the company depends on a few significant customers for a majority of net sales, especially in the consumer channel, and Walmart's share rose four points in two years. Some of the largest private brand customers award business through periodic bidding in which a single successful bidder wins the product until the next round, so a bid set too high may cut sales volume sharply. Retail consolidation and customer private brand expansion add pricing pressure, and the company cannot hedge nut commodity prices because no suitable futures market exists.
See also: Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foods
From John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-13Recent Developments — John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS JBSS Q4 EPS $0.71 misses $1.20 estimate; sales beat - scanx.trade — scanx.trade negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com South Africa — Investing.com South Africa negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo announces mixed Q4 results as ’multiple challenges’ impact profitability - Investing.com Canada — Investing.com Canada negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son (NASDAQ:JBSS) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Misses Expectations By $0.46 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS John B. Sanfilippo & Son Fiscal Q4 Earnings Fall, Net Sales Rise - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com negative
Generated 2026-10-13T11:37:16Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerWalmart40%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Walmart Inc. accounted for approximately 40% of our net sales for fiscal 2025'
- LOWCustomerTarget11%10-K Item 1: 'Net sales to Target Corporation accounted for approximately 11% of our net sales for fiscal 2025'
- HIGHProductnuts and bars92%10-K Item 1: 'Our principal products are raw and processed nuts and bars. Including trail and snack mixes, these products accounted for approximately 92% of our gross sales'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $67.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: nuts and bars (92.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: RSI 48 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $85.00 (+26.2%), stop $64.12 (−5.1%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $85.00 (+26.2% upside). Target $85.00 (+26.2%), stop $64.12 (−5.1%), A.R:R 5.2:1. Stop-loss: $64.12.
Concentration risk — Product: nuts and bars (92.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth.
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover JBSS with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $100.
What does John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. do?John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and...
John B. Sanfilippo & Son processes and distributes peanuts, pecans, cashews, walnuts and almonds and makes snack and nutrition bars, mostly under private brands plus Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand and Southern Style Nuts. It sells to about 210 customers through consumer, commercial ingredient and contract manufacturing channels, with Walmart at 40% of fiscal 2025 net sales. Vertical integration in pecans, peanuts and walnuts lets it buy directly from growers.