Value
8.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.2 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.8 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 15.7x
- ▸Attractively valued
JBSS · Why this verdict
Why John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
John B. Sanfilippo & Son has strung together a perfect four-quarter earnings beat streak and screens as attractively valued, but the stock has already reached its price target near a 52-week high, leaving an unfavorable stated risk/reward, an overbought technical setup, and a lingering earnings-quality gap.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Shares screen as attractively valued, trading around a forward P/E of 19.0x according to the data. Valuation breakdown | The valuation should remain reasonable relative to earnings growth if the multiple holds near current levels while earnings keep beating estimates. | →Stable |
| CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target with only about -4.3% implied upside left, suggesting much of the value case may already be reflected in the price. | ||
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 80, sits just 0.3% below its 52-week high, and continues to show rising on-balance volume above its 200-day moving average. Momentum breakdown | RSI cooling from overbought levels while the stock holds above its 200-day moving average would support a healthier continuation rather than a sharp reversal. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterAn RSI reading this extreme, combined with being at a 52-week high, raises the risk of a near-term pullback even with continued volume accumulation. | ||
Despite a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, the data flags an earnings-quality warning with free cash flow running at only about 63% of net income. Quality breakdown | The FCF-to-net-income ratio rising back toward or above 100% would resolve the earnings-quality concern. | Tripped↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 already signals broadly healthy fundamentals, suggesting the cash-conversion gap may be a timing issue rather than a structural quality problem. | ||
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with an average surprise of roughly 16%, a streak the data calls a perfect beat streak. Bull case | Continuing to beat estimates over the next several quarters would extend this streak and reinforce execution consistency. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterGrowth is described as weak, with the earnings-growth component reading near zero, meaning the beats may reflect low expectations rather than strong underlying expansion. | ||
The stock has reached its stated price target with roughly -4.3% implied upside, and the engine's own asymmetry check fails at about -0.3, indicating the risk/reward has turned unfavorable near current levels. Warnings | A new, higher price target or a pullback restoring positive upside would be needed for the asymmetry to turn favorable again. | ↑Improving |
| CounterMomentum remains strong, clearing its threshold at 6.9, which could support shares grinding to new highs and the target being revised upward. | ||
Shares screen as attractively valued, trading around a forward P/E of 19.0x according to the data.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The valuation should remain reasonable relative to earnings growth if the multiple holds near current levels while earnings keep beating estimates.
CounterThe stock has already reached its analyst price target with only about -4.3% implied upside left, suggesting much of the value case may already be reflected in the price.
The stock is overbought with an RSI of 80, sits just 0.3% below its 52-week high, and continues to show rising on-balance volume above its 200-day moving average.
Tripped↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- RSI cooling from overbought levels while the stock holds above its 200-day moving average would support a healthier continuation rather than a sharp reversal.
CounterAn RSI reading this extreme, combined with being at a 52-week high, raises the risk of a near-term pullback even with continued volume accumulation.
Despite a strong Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9, the data flags an earnings-quality warning with free cash flow running at only about 63% of net income.
Tripped↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- The FCF-to-net-income ratio rising back toward or above 100% would resolve the earnings-quality concern.
CounterA Piotroski F-score of 7 out of 9 already signals broadly healthy fundamentals, suggesting the cash-conversion gap may be a timing issue rather than a structural quality problem.
The company has beaten earnings estimates in each of its last four reported quarters, with an average surprise of roughly 16%, a streak the data calls a perfect beat streak.
↓DeterioratingBull case
- Expectation
- Continuing to beat estimates over the next several quarters would extend this streak and reinforce execution consistency.
CounterGrowth is described as weak, with the earnings-growth component reading near zero, meaning the beats may reflect low expectations rather than strong underlying expansion.
The stock has reached its stated price target with roughly -4.3% implied upside, and the engine's own asymmetry check fails at about -0.3, indicating the risk/reward has turned unfavorable near current levels.
↑ImprovingWarnings
- Expectation
- A new, higher price target or a pullback restoring positive upside would be needed for the asymmetry to turn favorable again.
CounterMomentum remains strong, clearing its threshold at 6.9, which could support shares grinding to new highs and the target being revised upward.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.6 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.6 |
| Net margin | 2.6 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 3.8 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 47% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
1.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 2.2 |
| Volume | 1.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+4.2%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
Sentiment
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 6.5 |
| Analyst rating | 6.4 |
| Price target | 8.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (2.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 34%
Insider
5.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.8 |
| notable moves | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 6.7 |
| growth rank | 4.5 |
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
7.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.3 |
| support resistance | 8.1 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.7 |
| days to cover | 7.4 |
| volatility | 2.5 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 8.8 |
- ▸High IV: 116%
Catalyst
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.1 |
| dividend safety | 8.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend aristocrat: 1.3% yield
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- ASYMMETRY:1.7>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:60d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.74
Upside
+13.8%
Downside
8.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeInst Constrain — Small cap ($0.9B) below institutional reach
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $0.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.2 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:1.7<4.5) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.74 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.0, Technical at 7.7, and Sentiment at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 1.7, Growth at 1.8, and Quality at 4.5. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.74 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% (a miss) for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Attractive Valuation
Trip ifForward P/E rises above 25x from the current 19.0x.
- P3Negative Asymmetry Target Reached
Trip ifThe risk/reward asymmetry ratio rises above 0 (turns positive) from the current -0.29.
- P4Overbought Near 52 Week HighTripped
Trip ifRSI falls below 60, cooling from the current overbought reading of 80.
- P5Earnings Quality Cash Conversion GapTripped
Trip ifThe FCF-to-net-income ratio rises above 90% from the current 63%.