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Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. At $137.70, A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen.

Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream (bitumen at Cold Lake and Kearl, synthetic crude at Syncrude), Downstream (three refineries), and Chemical segments. ExxonMobil owns approximately 69.6% of the... Read more

$137.70-0.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#13 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.14%
IncomeYield1.85%(5y avg 2.25%)Payout51.36%sustainable
Stop $129.40Target $136.65(resistance)A.R:R -3.9:1
Analyst target$95.21-30.9%1 analysts
Range unavailable (1 analysts)

Sell if holding. At $137.70, A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Imperial Oil Limited

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%)
Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.2
P/E (Fwd)18.2
Mkt Cap$68.5B
EV/EBITDA10.6
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE12.4%
Rev Growth-0.4%
Beta0.85
Dividend1.85%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV42%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCanada100%
    10-K Item 1: 'All of the company's reported reserves are located in Canada'
  • HIGHCommoditybitumen
    10-K Item 1: 'A significant portion of the company's production is bitumen, which is blended with diluent for transportation and marketability of heavy crude oil'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.9
Growth Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
3.7

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe

Negative sentiment — recent news tone and/or analyst downgrades drag the composite below neutral.static

Price Target
1.4
Analyst Rating
5.0
Erm Sentiment
5.0
Below analyst target

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.5
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
9.8
GatesA.R:R -3.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $123.07Resistance $139.44

Price Targets

$129
$137
A.Upside-0.8%
A.R:R-3.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-41.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is IMO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $137.70, A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $129.40. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the IMO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $136.65 (-0.8% upside). Prior stop was $129.40. Stop-loss: $129.40.

What are the risks of investing in IMO?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Canada (100.0%); Concentration risk — Commodity: bitumen; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is IMO overvalued or undervalued?

Imperial Oil Limited trades at a P/E of 32.2 (forward 18.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about IMO?

22 analysts cover IMO with a consensus score of 2.4/5. Average price target: $95.

What does Imperial Oil Limited do?Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream...

Imperial Oil is Canada's largest petroleum refiner and a major integrated oil company, operating through Upstream (bitumen at Cold Lake and Kearl, synthetic crude at Syncrude), Downstream (three refineries), and Chemical segments. ExxonMobil owns approximately 69.6% of the company; all proved reserves and production are located in Canada. Net production averaged 382,000 barrels per day oil-equivalent in 2025.

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