Revenue growing at 168% year-over-year and roughly 55% upside to the analyst price target frame a high-potential early-stage biotechnology story, but deeply negative free cash flow, a 34% short interest, and weak near-term price momentum mean the setup requires a patient holding posture rather than aggressive deployment.
Thesis pillars
- Triple Digit Revenue Growth→Stable
- Large Upside Favorable Risk Reward→Stable
- Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 23, 2026· older than 90 days
ImmunityBio, Inc. (IBRX) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Healthcare · Biotechnology
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.93: Risk below floor (2.4 < 2.5) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.78; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.)
ImmunityBio is commercializing ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept), an IL-15 receptor superagonist FDA-approved in April 2024 for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, with conditional EU approval granted in February 2026. The company generated ~$113 million in... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.93: Risk below floor (2.4 < 2.5) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.78; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About ImmunityBio, Inc.
About ImmunityBio, Inc.
ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept), ImmunityBio's sole commercialized IL-15 receptor superagonist, generated approximately $113 million in net product revenue during fiscal 2025, representing roughly 700% year-over-year growth from its mid-2024 commercial launch following FDA approval in April 2024. The product has since received regulatory authorization in the UK (July 2025), conditional marketing authorization from the European Commission (February 2026), and two conditional approvals from Saudi Arabia's SFDA (January 2026), expanding the authorized footprint to 33 countries.
ImmunityBio generates product revenue from commercial sales of ANKTIVA to urology practices for intravesical treatment of BCG-unresponsive NMIBC, using the J-code (J9028) granted by CMS effective January 1, 2025, which expanded reimbursement to over 240 million covered lives as of December 2025. Distribution relies on third-party CMOs and wholesalers. A critical supply constraint exists: because ANKTIVA is indicated only in combination with BCG, and TICE BCG remains the only broadly available FDA-approved BCG strain in the U.S., any supply disruption to TICE BCG could directly curtail ANKTIVA utilization. Cash obligations are significant — the company carries a $505.0 million convertible promissory note held by an entity affiliated with founder Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong and a revenue interest liability with Oberland exceeding $324.6 million under the RIPA, against $242.8 million in cash and marketable securities as of December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
A pending supplemental BLA for BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with papillary tumors represents a binary regulatory event for ImmunityBio. In May 2025, the FDA issued a Refuse to File letter recommending that the company submit additional information — potentially including data from a new randomized controlled trial — before accepting the sBLA for review. If a new RCT is required, the timeline to expand the NMIBC label beyond the CIS subgroup could extend materially, a meaningful constraint given the $3.7 billion accumulated deficit reported through December 31, 2025.
See also: Healthcare · Biotechnology
From ImmunityBio, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 29, 2026Recent Developments — ImmunityBio, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ImmunityBio (NasdaqGS:IBRX) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ImmunityBio Stock Has The Bull Case Changed After Trial Database Lock - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ImmunityBio Stock Has The Bull Case Changed After Trial Database Lock - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS ImmunityBio locks trial database: ImmunityBio stock draws six Buy ratings - ad-hoc-news.de — ad-hoc-news.de Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Should I Buy IBRX (ImmunityBio, Inc.) | AI Analysis, Technical & News Insights - Kavout — Kavout Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 29, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Volatile — 7.6% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $8.93: Risk below floor (2.4 < 2.5) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 31%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.78; Below-average business quality. (Note: Risk dimension 2.4/10 and A.R:R 2.4:1 are different metrics that happen to read the same number here.) Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $8.30. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $12.11 (+35.6% upside). Prior stop was $8.30. Stop-loss: $8.30.
Risk below floor (2.4 < 2.5).
ImmunityBio, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -121.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
10 analysts rate IBRX, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $14.
What does ImmunityBio, Inc. do?ImmunityBio is commercializing ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept), an IL-15 receptor superagonist FDA-approved in...
ImmunityBio is commercializing ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept), an IL-15 receptor superagonist FDA-approved in April 2024 for BCG-unresponsive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer, with conditional EU approval granted in February 2026. The company generated ~$113 million in net product revenue in 2025, representing roughly 700% year-over-year growth, against a $3.7 billion accumulated deficit as of December 31, 2025.