Value
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 1.0 |
| PEG | 5.1 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 157.3x
- ▸PEG: 1.47
IBRX · Why this verdict
Why ImmunityBio (IBRX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Revenue grew 168% year-over-year, establishing this as one of the fastest-growing names in its peer group and suggesting the commercial ramp is gaining meaningful traction. Growth breakdown | Year-over-year revenue growth remains above 50% in each of the next two reported quarters, confirming that the ramp rate is sustained and not reverting toward single-digit norms. | →Stable |
| CounterTriple-digit growth from a small base can mask a deceleration that, once the base effect normalizes, could rapidly compress the growth rate — and the confidence flag on the growth estimate is only 0.67, meaning the trajectory carries meaningful uncertainty. | ||
At roughly 55% below the consensus analyst price target, the stock offers a risk/reward of approximately 7.9-to-1 in favor of the upside scenario, representing an asymmetric setup relative to the defined downside risk. Price targets | Price advances more than 20% from current levels toward the $11.05 target over the next 12 months, reflecting analyst consensus beginning to be incorporated into market pricing. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst coverage is light — only three analysts — which can inflate consensus targets and reduce the predictive reliability of the stated upside; a forward earnings multiple of approximately 119x means any negative clinical or commercial news could reprice the stock sharply. | ||
Free cash flow consumed 137% of revenue in the most recent period, meaning the company is spending materially more cash than it generates from sales — a burn profile that requires continued external financing to sustain operations. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue improves to better than -50% within four quarters, signaling that the commercial ramp is beginning to fund a meaningful portion of operating costs. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy cash burn is characteristic of high-growth biotechnology businesses investing ahead of commercial scale; if revenue continues to compound at a high rate, the burn relative to revenue can shrink rapidly without any structural change in the spending pattern. | ||
A short interest of 34% of the float and a put/call ratio of 1.32 indicate elevated bearish positioning by market participants who anticipate the stock will fall, creating a meaningful overhang on near-term price performance. Risk breakdown | Short interest falls below 20% within two quarterly periods, indicating that the short thesis is being unwound as the fundamental story improves. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavily shorted stocks with improving fundamentals can experience rapid short-covering rallies; the two prior quarters each beat earnings estimates by 38% and 30% respectively, so if that pattern continues, forced covering could accelerate the stock toward its target. | ||
Revenue grew 168% year-over-year, establishing this as one of the fastest-growing names in its peer group and suggesting the commercial ramp is gaining meaningful traction.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Year-over-year revenue growth remains above 50% in each of the next two reported quarters, confirming that the ramp rate is sustained and not reverting toward single-digit norms.
CounterTriple-digit growth from a small base can mask a deceleration that, once the base effect normalizes, could rapidly compress the growth rate — and the confidence flag on the growth estimate is only 0.67, meaning the trajectory carries meaningful uncertainty.
At roughly 55% below the consensus analyst price target, the stock offers a risk/reward of approximately 7.9-to-1 in favor of the upside scenario, representing an asymmetric setup relative to the defined downside risk.
→StablePrice targets
- Expectation
- Price advances more than 20% from current levels toward the $11.05 target over the next 12 months, reflecting analyst consensus beginning to be incorporated into market pricing.
CounterAnalyst coverage is light — only three analysts — which can inflate consensus targets and reduce the predictive reliability of the stated upside; a forward earnings multiple of approximately 119x means any negative clinical or commercial news could reprice the stock sharply.
Free cash flow consumed 137% of revenue in the most recent period, meaning the company is spending materially more cash than it generates from sales — a burn profile that requires continued external financing to sustain operations.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow as a percentage of revenue improves to better than -50% within four quarters, signaling that the commercial ramp is beginning to fund a meaningful portion of operating costs.
CounterHeavy cash burn is characteristic of high-growth biotechnology businesses investing ahead of commercial scale; if revenue continues to compound at a high rate, the burn relative to revenue can shrink rapidly without any structural change in the spending pattern.
A short interest of 34% of the float and a put/call ratio of 1.32 indicate elevated bearish positioning by market participants who anticipate the stock will fall, creating a meaningful overhang on near-term price performance.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Short interest falls below 20% within two quarterly periods, indicating that the short thesis is being unwound as the fundamental story improves.
CounterHeavily shorted stocks with improving fundamentals can experience rapid short-covering rallies; the two prior quarters each beat earnings estimates by 38% and 30% respectively, so if that pattern continues, forced covering could accelerate the stock toward its target.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Revenue growing at 168% year-over-year and roughly 55% upside to the analyst price target frame a high-potential early-stage biotechnology story, but deeply negative free cash flow, a 34% short interest, and weak near-term price momentum mean the setup requires a patient holding posture rather than aggressive deployment.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.3 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -137% of revenue
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 168% YoY
Momentum
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.9 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.0 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 81)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.3 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 38%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $362,213 (0.004% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.5 |
| quality rank | 5.0 |
| growth rank | 9.2 |
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
1.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.5 |
| 52w position | 5.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 0.0 |
| days to cover | 0.4 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 6.5 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
- ▸High short interest: 35%
- ▸High IV: 112%
Catalyst
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Extreme risk factors.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.4>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:32d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
1.14
Upside
+17.1%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Biotechnology
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Growth at 10.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: ASYMMETRY:1.1<1.5@spot.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Catalyst at 7.5, and Momentum at 7.4; the weakest are Technical at 1.9, Risk (lower is worse) at 2.8, and Quality at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.14 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Triple Digit Revenue Growth
Trip ifYear-over-year revenue growth falls below 30% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P2Large Upside Favorable Risk Reward
Trip ifPrice rises above $11.05 (the analyst consensus take-profit target), exhausting the defined 55% upside.
- P3Deeply Negative Free Cash Flow
Trip ifFree cash flow as a percentage of revenue worsens beyond -200% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P4High Short Interest Bearish Options
Trip ifShort interest rises above 40% of float for 2 consecutive monthly reports.