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Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet.

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare epilepsy and neurobehavioral disorders. Net product revenue from WAKIX was $868.5 million in 2025; WAKIX represented 98% of total revenue. The company's core... Read more

$30.44+26.8% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#7 of 157 Biotechnology
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield8.67%
Stop $28.31Target $38.60(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$44.36+45.7%11 analysts
$38.60our TP
$30.44price
$44.36mean
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.8 in RISK_OFF)
Sector modifier (Healthcare): +0.5
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%)
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.0
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn16.2%
ROE17.9%
Rev Growth16.6%
Beta0.96
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.64bearish
IV53%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductWAKIX98%
    10-K Item 1A: 'We are substantially dependent on the commercial success of our only approved product, WAKIX.'
  • HIGHSupplierBioprojet
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on our license agreements with Bioprojet to provide rights to the core intellectual property relating to pitolisant, and any termination or loss of significant rights under the agreement would adversely affect our development and/or commercialization of pitolisant.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Sandip Kapadia, CFO, stepping down effective April 14, 2026 to pursue other career opportunities. Glenn Reicin appointed CFO effective same date. Clean handoff with named successor.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Anastasiou appointed Senior EVP and COO effective April 2, 2026. In connection with appointment, Anastasiou resigned as Class III Board director, also effective April 2, 2026. No disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.5
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $28.86Resistance $33.00

Price Targets

$28
$39
A.Upside+26.8%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 2.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRMY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $30.44, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Quality-value play. Wait for momentum improvement. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_WAIT → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $38.60 (+26.8%), stop $28.31 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRMY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.60 (+26.8% upside). Target $38.60 (+26.8%), stop $28.31 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $28.31.

What are the risks of investing in HRMY?

Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX (98.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is HRMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 12.0 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HRMY?

17 analysts cover HRMY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $44.

What does Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I do?Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare...

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy and expanding into rare epilepsy and neurobehavioral disorders. Net product revenue from WAKIX was $868.5 million in 2025; WAKIX represented 98% of total revenue. The company's core IP is exclusively licensed from Bioprojet under two license agreements.

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