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Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I (HRMY) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)Moderate Confidence

Healthcare · Biotechnology

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX; Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet.

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy EDS and cataplexy in adults and pediatric patients in the US, with pipeline in idiopathic hypersomnia, rare epilepsy, and other neurological diseases. Revenue is derived almost... Read more

$31.10+20.1% A.UpsideScore 6.9/10#4 of 158 Biotechnology
Stop $28.98Target $37.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$43.00+38.3%11 analysts
$37.41our TP
$31.10price
$43.00mean
$25
$72

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX; Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX
Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet
Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.5
P/E (Fwd)5.4
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA5.1
Profit Mgn18.3%
ROE20.8%
Rev Growth21.1%
Beta0.89
DividendNone
Rating analysts17

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C0.79neutral
IV84%elevated
Max Pain$23-27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductWAKIX
    10-K Item 1A: 'our business has been substantially dependent on WAKIX and our financial results have been significantly influenced by sales of WAKIX'
  • HIGHSupplierBioprojet
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on our license agreements with Bioprojet to provide rights to the core intellectual property relating to pitolisant, and any termination or loss of significant rights under the agreement would adversely affect'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-14Item 5.02MEDIUM
    CFO Sandip Kapadia stepped down Apr 14, 2026 to pursue other career opportunities. Glenn Reicin appointed CFO effective Apr 14, 2026 as same-day successor. Separation Agreement entered into.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-02Item 5.02LOW
    Peter Anastasiou named Senior EVP and COO effective Apr 2, 2026; simultaneously resigned as Class III Board member, not due to any disagreement with the Company or Board.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
1.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 7 days
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 5.8>=5.5A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $27.21Resistance $34.99

Price Targets

$29
$37
A.Upside+20.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-2: STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRMY stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.10, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX; Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 68. Exceptional business at discount. Quality + value alignment. | News modifier -2 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $37.41 (+20.3%), stop $28.98 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Score 6.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRMY stock price target?

Take-profit target: $37.41 (+20.1% upside). Target $37.41 (+20.3%), stop $28.98 (−7.3%), A.R:R 1.6:1. Stop-loss: $28.98.

What are the risks of investing in HRMY?

Concentration risk — Product: WAKIX; Concentration risk — Supplier: Bioprojet; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

Is HRMY overvalued or undervalued?

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I trades at a P/E of 11.5 (forward 5.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HRMY?

17 analysts cover HRMY with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Harmony Biosciences Holdings, I do?Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy EDS and cataplexy in...

Harmony Biosciences is a neuroscience company commercializing WAKIX (pitolisant) for narcolepsy EDS and cataplexy in adults and pediatric patients in the US, with pipeline in idiopathic hypersomnia, rare epilepsy, and other neurological diseases. Revenue is derived almost entirely from WAKIX prescriptions, the only non-scheduled FDA-approved narcolepsy treatment.

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