HubSpot offers 23% revenue growth, a PEG ratio of 0.30, exceptional cash conversion at 654% of net income, and 38.5% upside to the take-profit target at a 5.5-to-1 risk/reward—but a confirmed price downtrend with a death cross currently blocks new entries, making this a fundamentally attractive story awaiting technical improvement before the full asymmetry can be captured.
Thesis pillars
- Growth At Attractive Valuation↑Improving
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Wide Moat→Stable
- Death Cross Momentum Hard Block→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Technology · Software - Application
Sell if holding. At $213.74, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
HubSpot provides subscription-based marketing, sales, and customer service software to mid-market B2B companies across more than 135 countries, organized into six engagement Hubs plus a Smart CRM. The company generated $3.1 billion in revenue and $45.9 million net income in... Read more
Sell if holding. At $213.74, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 40d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About HubSpot, Inc.
About HubSpot, Inc.
HubSpot's unified customer platform reached 288,706 customers across 135+ countries by December 31, 2025, generating $3.1 billion in total revenue and $45.9 million in net income. International customers contributed approximately 48% of revenue that year, with 8,882 full-time employees and six engagement Hubs spanning marketing, sales, service, operations, content, and commerce.
Revenue is almost entirely subscription-based, with customers on annual or shorter contract terms and no single customer exceeding 10% of revenue. The company sells primarily to mid-market B2B companies with 2–2,000 employees, distributing through direct sales and a worldwide Solutions Partner network; Solutions Partners and their referred customers accounted for approximately 49% of revenue in 2025. HubSpot competes against cloud-based marketing automation providers, sales force automation and CRM vendors, customer service software providers, and large-scale enterprise suites — some of which have greater financial resources and may bundle CRM at little or no additional cost. The 10-K flags that generic large language models and generative AI tools may compete with its platform without specialist positioning, potentially compelling price reductions. The freemium model funnels users from free-tier products into paid Hubs, with pricing tiers designed to capture more spend as customers grow.
Show full overview
The Solutions Partner channel, which generated approximately 49% of 2025 revenue, represents HubSpot's primary distribution dependency. The 10-K explicitly warns that if Solutions Partners do not refer a growing number of customers, or if they stop providing services that HubSpot would otherwise need to supply internally, revenue and operating costs could be adversely affected. Compounding this, the subscription model means renewal rates drive a substantial portion of quarterly reported revenue — declines in renewals may not appear in reported results until future quarters, a lag that could obscure deteriorating trends in customer health.
See also: Technology · Software - Application
From HubSpot, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — HubSpot, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS RDST Capital LLC Cuts Stock Position in HubSpot, Inc. $HUBS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Bernstein reiterates HubSpot stock rating ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- NEWS HubSpot, Inc. (HUBS) Stock Price Quote Today & Current Price Chart - Capital.com — Capital.com neutral
- NEWS Swedbank AB Lowers Stock Position in HubSpot, Inc. $HUBS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat negative
- NEWS HUBS Gains From Strong Subscription Growth: Can the Momentum Continue? - TradingView — TradingView positive
Generated 2026-09-26T04:42:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerSolutions Partners channel49%10-K Item 1: 'Solutions Partners and customers referred to us by our Solutions Partners represented ... approximately 49% of our revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicinternational customers48%10-K Item 1: 'approximately 53% of our Customers were located outside of the United States and these Customers generated approximately 48% of our total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-01Item 5.02LOWDirector Ron Gill notified the Board on March 27, 2026 of his resignation effective June 30, 2026. No disagreement with the company cited. Mike Berry appointed as Class III director effective April 1, 2026 to fill vacancy created by board size increase to 12.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $213.74, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 35, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $204.10. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $229.74 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $204.10. Stop-loss: $204.10.
Thin upside margin: 7.5%; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
HubSpot, Inc. trades at a P/E of 80.6 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
42 analysts cover HUBS with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $250.
What does HubSpot, Inc. do?HubSpot provides subscription-based marketing, sales, and customer service software to mid-market B2B companies across...
HubSpot provides subscription-based marketing, sales, and customer service software to mid-market B2B companies across more than 135 countries, organized into six engagement Hubs plus a Smart CRM. The company generated $3.1 billion in revenue and $45.9 million net income in 2025, serving 288,706 customers, with approximately 49% of revenue flowing through its Solutions Partner network.