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H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Earnings in 6 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

H&R Block provides tax preparation through retail offices and digital platforms in the US, Canada, and Australia, generating $3.8B in consolidated revenues in fiscal 2025 from 11.3M assisted and 3.8M DIY online paid returns. Revenue comes from preparation fees, financial... Read more

$31.25+11.5% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 6 Personal Services
Stop $29.06Target $34.85(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$41.00+31.2%2 analysts
$34.85our TP
$31.25price
$41.00mean
$50

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 51%
Risks
Earnings in 6 days (event risk)
Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.3
P/E (Fwd)5.6
Mkt Cap$4.0B
EV/EBITDA6.8
Profit Mgn16.2%
ROE
Rev Growth11.1%
Beta0.33
Dividend5.35%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.32bullish
IV69%elevated
Max Pain$70+124.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMSupplierPathward
    10-K Item 1A: 'Pathward®, N.A. (Pathward), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pathward Financial, Inc., for the issuance of RTs, EAs, RAs, Emerald Cards, and Spruce accounts'
  • MEDIUMSupplierMicrosoft Corporation
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our software and computer systems utilize cloud computing services provided by Microsoft Corporation. If the Microsoft Azure Cloud is unavailable for any reason, it could negatively impact our ability to deliver our services'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 6d<=7dMomentum 4.7<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.7>=4.5A.R:R 1.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
59 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.75Resistance $33.41

Price Targets

$29
$35
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:6d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (6d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRB stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $31.25, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 59. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $34.85 (+11.5%), stop $29.06 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $34.85 (+11.5% upside). Target $34.85 (+11.5%), stop $29.06 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $29.06.

What are the risks of investing in HRB?

Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.5%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HRB overvalued or undervalued?

H&R Block, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.3 (forward 5.6). TrendMatrix value score: 9.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HRB?

11 analysts cover HRB with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $41.

What does H&R Block, Inc. do?H&R Block provides tax preparation through retail offices and digital platforms in the US, Canada, and Australia,...

H&R Block provides tax preparation through retail offices and digital platforms in the US, Canada, and Australia, generating $3.8B in consolidated revenues in fiscal 2025 from 11.3M assisted and 3.8M DIY online paid returns. Revenue comes from preparation fees, financial products (refund transfers, Emerald Card, Spruce), and small business solutions via Block Advisors and Wave.

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