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H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.12; Below long-term trend.

H&R Block provides tax preparation services (assisted and DIY), financial products, and small business solutions in the U.S., Canada, and Australia, with $3.8 billion in consolidated revenues and 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns in fiscal 2025. Revenue is heavily seasonal... Read more

$38.80-0.2% A.UpsideScore 6.0/10#1 of 6 Personal Services
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield13.34%
IncomeYield4.33%(5y avg 3.23%)Payout29.25%sustainable
Stop $36.09Target $38.75(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$39.50+1.8%2 analysts
$38.75our TP
$38.80price
$39.50mean
$29
$50

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.12; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — H&R Block, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward
Target reached (-13.5% upside)
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.9
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$4.9B
EV/EBITDA5.9
Profit Mgn18.9%
ROE
Rev Growth5.3%
Beta0.30
Dividend4.33%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C6.13bearish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$18-54.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyPathward
    10-K Item 1A: 'Pathward®, N.A. (Pathward), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pathward Financial, Inc., for the issuance of RTs, EAs, RAs, Emerald Cards, and Spruce accounts'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.7
Bollinger
1.0
52w Position
2.5

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Short Interest
0.0
Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Days To Cover
1.6
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Implied Vol
5.4
Beta
10.0
High short interest: 23%Elevated put/call: 6.12Above max pain $18Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
73 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $29.12Resistance $39.54

Price Targets

$36
$39
A.Upside-0.1%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.5% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -1.3%), High leverage (D/E 9.2)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-11 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HRB stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $38.80: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 6.12; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 73. Prior stop was $36.09. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HRB stock price target?

Take-profit target: $38.75 (-0.2% upside). Prior stop was $36.09. Stop-loss: $36.09.

What are the risks of investing in HRB?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward; Target reached (-13.5% upside); Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).

Is HRB overvalued or undervalued?

H&R Block, Inc. trades at a P/E of 6.9 (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HRB?

11 analysts cover HRB with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $40.

What does H&R Block, Inc. do?H&R Block provides tax preparation services (assisted and DIY), financial products, and small business solutions in the...

H&R Block provides tax preparation services (assisted and DIY), financial products, and small business solutions in the U.S., Canada, and Australia, with $3.8 billion in consolidated revenues and 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns in fiscal 2025. Revenue is heavily seasonal (concentrated February–April) and the company relies on bank partner Pathward for key products including refund transfers, Emerald Cards, and refund advance loans. The company filed 22.8 million total returns globally in fiscal 2025.

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