A consumer tax-services company with compelling valuation metrics (forward P/E of 6.2x, PEG of 0.51), 19% net margins, and a recent three-quarter earnings beat streak is offset by a confirmed price downtrend declining at 5.3% per month, 23% short interest, and two high-severity counterparty concentration risks — the setup offers roughly 7% return to the next resistance level but lacks the technical catalyst needed to close that gap near-term.
Thesis pillars
- Compelling Earnings Growth Value↑Improving
- High Margin Quality Business→Stable
- Three Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
H&R Block, Inc. (HRB) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
Wait for pullback to $38.15. At $41.97 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $38.15 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Microsoft Azure.
H&R Block, Inc. provides assisted and do-it-yourself tax preparation services, financial products, and small business solutions in the U.S., Canada, and Australia through company-owned and franchise offices, online, and mobile channels. In fiscal 2025, the company prepared 11.3... Read more
Wait for pullback to $38.15. At $41.97 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $38.15 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Microsoft Azure. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 50% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
About H&R Block, Inc.
About H&R Block, Inc.
H&R Block prepared 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns and processed 3.8 million DIY online paid returns in fiscal 2025, together with its Canadian and Australian operations contributing to 22.8 million total returns filed by or through the company. Those channels drove $3.8 billion in consolidated revenue and $609.5 million in net income from continuing operations, with U.S. franchisees paying the company roughly 30% of gross tax-return preparation revenue as a royalty.
H&R Block earns revenue primarily from per-return tax preparation fees across assisted, DIY, and virtual channels, supplemented by a suite of financial products offered through bank partner Pathward, including Refund Transfers, Refund Advance loans, Emerald Advance term loans, and the Emerald Card and Spruce prepaid/spending accounts. Refund Transfers in particular serve clients who lack bank accounts for direct IRS deposit or who prefer to pay tax-preparation fees out of their refund, making the offering sensitive to low-income and unbanked demographics. The business is highly seasonal, with the company employing approximately 4,300 regular full-time associates as of June 30, 2025 but expanding to a peak of about 70,100 employees, including seasonal tax professionals, during the fiscal year, and it generally operates at a loss through the first two quarters of its fiscal year before the February-through-April filing season drives the bulk of revenue.
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H&R Block's channel mix faces a bottom-up threat from free alternatives rather than just other paid competitors: the 10-K discloses that the IRS offered a limited free direct tax filing system in the 2024 and 2025 tax seasons that it may expand, and that Free File, Inc.'s free DIY software agreement with the IRS runs through October 2029. Because H&R Block's DIY channel competes on price and functionality against those free options as well as commercial rivals, any government expansion of no-cost filing tools would pressure the lower-margin, higher-growth side of its channel mix even as the company continues to rely on paid assisted returns for the bulk of its 11.3 million fiscal 2025 preparations.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
From H&R Block, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 30, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — H&R Block, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know - Yahoo Finance UK — Yahoo Finance UK positive
- NEWS Does H&R Block's (HRB) New Analyst Coverage Reframe Its Defensive Profile or Just Confirm Consensus? - Sahm — Sahm neutral
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Stock Looks Below Fair Value After A 115% Five Year Run - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS H&R Block (HRB) Stock Looks Below Fair Value After A 115% Five Year Run - finance.yahoo.com — finance.yahoo.com positive
- NEWS HRB HR Block reports narrower Q1 2026 per share loss than estimates, dips 0.25 percent in today’s trading. - Newser — Newser neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:57:25Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHcounterpartyPathward10-K Item 1A: 'Pathward®, N.A. (Pathward), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pathward Financial, Inc., for the issuance of RTs, EAs, RAs, Emerald Cards, and Spruce accounts'
- HIGHcounterpartyMicrosoft Azure10-K Item 1A: 'Our software and computer systems utilize cloud computing services provided by Microsoft Corporation.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $38.15. At $41.97 the A.R:R is 0.7:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $38.15 (200-day MA) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Microsoft Azure. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Deep value: 50% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. Target $43.92 (+4.7%), stop $35.48 (−18.3%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.92 (+4.7% upside). Target $43.92 (+4.7%), stop $35.48 (−18.3%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $35.48.
Concentration risk — Counterparty: Pathward; Concentration risk — Counterparty: Microsoft Azure; Thin upside margin: 4.7%.
H&R Block, Inc. trades at a P/E of 7.5 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
12 analysts cover HRB with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $52.
What does H&R Block, Inc. do?H&R Block, Inc. provides assisted and do-it-yourself tax preparation services, financial products, and small business...
H&R Block, Inc. provides assisted and do-it-yourself tax preparation services, financial products, and small business solutions in the U.S., Canada, and Australia through company-owned and franchise offices, online, and mobile channels. In fiscal 2025, the company prepared 11.3 million U.S. assisted tax returns and 3.8 million DIY online paid returns, generating $3.8 billion in consolidated revenue and $609.5 million in net income from continuing operations.