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Bright Horizons Family Solution (BFAM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $68.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and educational advisory services (4%) for 1,450+ employer-clients across 1,010 centers in 5 countries. Total 2025 revenue was $2.93B; the company earns tuition (~90% of... Read more

$68.58+17.4% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#4 of 6 Personal Services
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield7.76%
Stop $63.78Target $80.52(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$92.56+35.0%9 analysts
$80.52our TP
$68.58price
$92.56mean
$105

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $68.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val8.1Qual4.5Grw7.1Mom1.6Sent7.0Ins5.0Peer3.8Tech5.5Risk5.45.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Bright Horizons Family Solution

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.7
P/E (Fwd)11.9
Mkt Cap$3.6B
EV/EBITDA11.6
Profit Mgn6.3%
ROE15.3%
Rev Growth7.0%
Beta1.28
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductFull service center-based child care71%
    10-K Item 1: 'Full service center-based child care (71% of our revenue in 2025)'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.9
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Value Rank
4.3
Growth Rank
5.0
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.7 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $65.00Resistance $86.69

Price Targets

$64
$81
A.Upside+17.4%
A.R:R1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BFAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $68.58 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 27, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $63.78. Score 5.6/10, high confidence.

What is the BFAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $80.52 (+17.4% upside). Prior stop was $63.78. Stop-loss: $63.78.

What are the risks of investing in BFAM?

Concentration risk — Product: Full service center-based child care (71.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is BFAM overvalued or undervalued?

Bright Horizons Family Solution trades at a P/E of 20.7 (forward 11.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BFAM?

16 analysts cover BFAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $93.

What does Bright Horizons Family Solution do?Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and educational...

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and educational advisory services (4%) for 1,450+ employer-clients across 1,010 centers in 5 countries. Total 2025 revenue was $2.93B; the company earns tuition (~90% of full-service segment revenue) and employer management fees under multi-year contracts.

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