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Bright Horizons Family Solution (BFAM) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $81.40, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of $2.93B 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and educational advisory services (4%) to 1,450+ employer clients across 1,010 centers in the U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Australia, and India. Revenue is earned via multi-year... Read more

$81.40+3.8% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#3 of 6 Personal Services
Stop $77.53Target $84.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.8:1
Analyst target$97.11+19.3%9 analysts
$84.49our TP
$81.40price
$97.11mean
$70
$115

Sell if holding. At $81.40, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Thin upside margin: 3.8%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)24.4
P/E (Fwd)14.3
Mkt Cap$4.3B
EV/EBITDA13.4
Profit Mgn6.6%
ROE14.8%
Rev Growth8.8%
Beta1.31
DividendNone
Rating analysts16

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.73neutral
IV83%elevated
Max Pain$65-20.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.8
Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
3.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.5<4.5A.R:R 0.8 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $79.58Resistance $86.69

Price Targets

$78
$84
A.Upside+3.8%
A.R:R0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.5/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.8:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BFAM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $81.40, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $77.53. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BFAM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $84.49 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $77.53. Stop-loss: $77.53.

What are the risks of investing in BFAM?

Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5; Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is BFAM overvalued or undervalued?

Bright Horizons Family Solution trades at a P/E of 24.4 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BFAM?

16 analysts cover BFAM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $97.

What does Bright Horizons Family Solution do?Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of $2.93B 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and...

Bright Horizons provides employer-sponsored child care (71% of $2.93B 2025 revenue), back-up care (25%), and educational advisory services (4%) to 1,450+ employer clients across 1,010 centers in the U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Australia, and India. Revenue is earned via multi-year contracts; largest client represented ~1% of revenue and top 10 clients ~8%, reflecting a highly diversified base.

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