Frontdoor has delivered four consecutive quarters of beating earnings estimates with free cash flow running at roughly 127% of net income, yet the stock is within less than 1% of its near-term technical resistance target with a risk/reward ratio of approximately 0.1-to-1 — a quality business at an unattractive current entry point.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Consistency→Stable
- Strong Free Cash Conversion→Stable
- Price At Near Term Ceiling↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
frontdoor, inc. (FTDR) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Frontdoor provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands, handling approximately 3.8 million home warranty service requests annually. Revenue of $2,093 million in 2025... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About frontdoor, inc.
About frontdoor, inc.
Frontdoor generated $2,093 million in revenue in 2025, with 76% of that revenue from existing customer renewals across approximately 2.1 million active home warranties in the United States under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands. The 2-10 HBW builder warranty business, acquired in December 2024, covered roughly one in six new U.S. homes built from January through October 2025, and had approximately 20,000 builder partners at year-end.
Frontdoor sells annual home warranty plans covering repairs to up to 29 home systems and appliances, priced through dynamic algorithms that adjust for contractor network strength and local market characteristics. New customers enter through two first-year acquisition channels—real estate (where agents and brokers market warranties during home transactions, generating $141 million in 2025) and direct-to-consumer (where digital and broadcast marketing targets homeowners independently of transactions)—before flowing into a higher-volume renewal channel that produced 76% of 2025 revenue. About 84% of home warranty customers were on monthly auto-pay as of December 31, 2025, a cohort with historically higher renewal rates. Cost structure is dominated by contract claims costs—labor, parts, and replacement appliances sourced through a nationwide network of approximately 17,000 independent contractor firms—with the preferred subset of roughly 4,200 contractors completing 84% of home warranty service requests in 2025.
Show full overview
Frontdoor's filing identifies California, Florida, and Texas as the company's largest regional markets and notes that declining consumer confidence or economic deterioration in those geographies could adversely affect demand. Sustained high mortgage interest rates suppressed existing home sales in 2022, 2023, and 2024 and kept 2025 sales flat relative to 2024, constraining the real estate acquisition channel that seeds the renewal base. If mortgage rates remain elevated or increase further, first-year real estate channel performance could continue to lag, potentially slowing renewal base growth through 2026 and 2027 given the one-year-minimum contract cycle.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services
From frontdoor, inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 31, 2026Recent Developments — frontdoor, inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Frontdoor (FTDR) Stock May Be 46% Undervalued On Cash Flow - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 31, 2026 positive
- NEWS Is Frontdoor Inc (FTDR) Overvalued After 3.7% Rally? GF Value Sa - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS FTDR Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 647.73M USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Frontdoor, Inc.（NASDAQ: FTDR）の株式購入を検討するのは遅すぎるでしょうか？ - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 26, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Goldman Sachs Maintains Neutral on Frontdoor, Lowers Price Target to $81 — benzinga Oct 12, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 31, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:37Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida, and Texas10-K Item 1A: 'particularly in our largest regions—California, Florida and Texas—could adversely affect the demand for our services'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOWDennis Howard elected to Board and appointed to Audit Committee, effective March 17, 2026. Howard is Managing Director, Chief Technology, Operations, and Data Officer at Charles Schwab. Classified as independent per Nasdaq listing standards. Standard non-employee director compensation.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $88.61 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $83.35. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $83.00 reached (−6.3% from $88.61); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $83.35. Stop-loss: $83.35.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 4.2): -1.5.
frontdoor, inc. trades at a P/E of 23.4 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate FTDR, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 5 analysts publish price targets averaging $95.
What does frontdoor, inc. do?Frontdoor provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States under the American Home Shield,...
Frontdoor provides home warranties and new home builder warranties in the United States under the American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands, handling approximately 3.8 million home warranty service requests annually. Revenue of $2,093 million in 2025 came predominantly from annual subscription renewals (76% of revenue), supported by a network of approximately 17,000 independent contractor firms.