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frontdoor, inc. (FTDR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Sell if holding. At $62.02, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands with ~2.1M active warranties. It generated $2,093M revenue in 2025; 76% came from existing customer renewals, serving homeowners... Read more

$62.02+4.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#2 of 6 Personal Services
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield7.36%
Stop $57.68Target $64.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$74.20+19.6%5 analysts
$64.55our TP
$62.02price
$74.20mean
$82

Sell if holding. At $62.02, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 77d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — frontdoor, inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Thin upside margin: 4.1%
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$4.5B
EV/EBITDA10.1
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE121.0%
Rev Growth5.9%
Beta1.56
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C13.00bearish
IV47%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    On March 16, 2026, Frontdoor's Board elected Dennis Howard (Managing Director at Charles Schwab) as an independent director and Audit Committee member, effective March 17, 2026. No officer departure; routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.3
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.6<4.5A.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 77d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $57.84Resistance $70.01

Price Targets

$58
$65
A.Upside+4.1%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (77d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTDR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $62.02, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $57.68. Score 5.7/10, high confidence.

What is the FTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $64.55 (+4.1% upside). Prior stop was $57.68. Stop-loss: $57.68.

What are the risks of investing in FTDR?

Thin upside margin: 4.1%; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Leverage penalty (D/E 5.2): -1.5.

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued?

frontdoor, inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FTDR?

13 analysts cover FTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $74.

What does frontdoor, inc. do?Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard,...

Frontdoor is the leading U.S. home warranty provider by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands with ~2.1M active warranties. It generated $2,093M revenue in 2025; 76% came from existing customer renewals, serving homeowners through a network of ~17,000 independent contractor firms.

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