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frontdoor, inc. (FTDR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Personal Services

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $51.98. At $58.16 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $51.98 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap).

Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands. With 2.1 million active home warranties, 76% of 2025 revenue came from renewals and approximately 84% of... Read more

$58.16+14.6% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 6 Personal Services
Entry $51.98(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $47.61Target $63.86(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.1:1Setup A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$73.40+26.2%5 analysts
$63.86our TP
$58.16price
$73.40mean
$82

Wait for pullback to $51.98. At $58.16 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $51.98 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 3/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)17.7
P/E (Fwd)12.2
Mkt Cap$4.2B
EV/EBITDA9.9
Profit Mgn12.2%
ROE106.0%
Rev Growth13.4%
Beta1.41
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.83bearish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$50-14.0% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMGeographicCalifornia, Florida and Texas
    10-K Item 1A: 'particularly in our largest regions—California, Florida and Texas'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Dennis Howard elected director and Audit Committee member effective March 17, 2026. He is Managing Director, Chief Technology, Operations, and Data Officer at Charles Schwab. Independent director; no prior arrangement with Company.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
4.5
Macd
6.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+0.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R 1.1 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $52.39Resistance $63.59

Price Targets

$48
$52
$64
A.Upside+9.8%
A.R:R1.1:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 0 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FTDR stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $51.98. At $58.16 the A.R:R is 1.1:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $51.98 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap). Chart setup: RSI 54 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 0 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $63.86 (+9.8%), stop $47.61 (−22.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FTDR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $63.86 (+14.6% upside). Target $63.86 (+9.8%), stop $47.61 (−22.2%), Setup A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $47.61.

What are the risks of investing in FTDR?

Leverage penalty (D/E 5.0): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin 4.9%), Material insider selling (18 sells, 0.26% of cap).

Is FTDR overvalued or undervalued?

frontdoor, inc. trades at a P/E of 17.7 (forward 12.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about FTDR?

13 analysts cover FTDR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $73.

What does frontdoor, inc. do?Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home...

Frontdoor is the leading provider of home warranties in the United States by revenue, operating under American Home Shield, HSA, OneGuard, Landmark, and 2-10 HBW brands. With 2.1 million active home warranties, 76% of 2025 revenue came from renewals and approximately 84% of customers are on monthly auto-pay.

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