Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Analysis
Basic Materials · Coking Coal
Sell if holding. At $85.01, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal.
Warrior Met Coal is a US-based premium hard coking coal producer operating three Alabama underground mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek), producing 9.3 million metric tons of steelmaking coal in 2025. Revenue is entirely from HCC sales to blast furnace steel producers in... Read more
Sell if holding. At $85.01, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and materials cycle peak fwd=11.5x,ratio=0.35x. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent Developments — Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Latest news
- UBS Maintains Buy on Warrior Met Coal, Lowers Price Target to $102 — benzinga May 1, 2026 positive
- Warrior Met Coal Q1 2026 Earnings Call: Complete Transcript — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
- Warrior Met Coal Q1 EPS $1.37 Beats $1.16 Estimate, Sales $458.588M Miss $465.987M Estimate — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
- Earnings Scheduled For April 30, 2026 — benzinga Apr 30, 2026 neutral
- White House Says President Trump Signs Memo Related To Coal Supply Chains — benzinga Apr 20, 2026 positive
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCommoditysteelmaking coal10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our revenues are derived from the sale of steelmaking coal and our business may suffer from a substantial or extended decline in steelmaking coal pricing and demand'
- HIGHCustomertop-5 customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, we derived approximately 56% of our total sales revenues from our five largest customers.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOWWarrior Met Coal shareholders approved the 2026 Equity Incentive Plan at the April 20, 2026 Annual Meeting; plan was adopted by Board on Feb 10, 2026 and adds new equity compensation capacity.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $85.01, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $79.06. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $91.20 (+7.3% upside). Prior stop was $79.06. Stop-loss: $79.06.
Commodity cycle peak: fwd P/E 11.5× (below 12) + fwd/trail 0.35× (below 0.55). EPS just expanded off a commodity-price surge — forward estimate may be built on stale spot, mean-reversion risk unpriced.; Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: top-5 customers (56.0%).
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.8 (forward 11.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
12 analysts cover HCC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $105.
What does Warrior Met Coal, Inc. do?Warrior Met Coal is a US-based premium hard coking coal producer operating three Alabama underground mines (Mine No. 4,...
Warrior Met Coal is a US-based premium hard coking coal producer operating three Alabama underground mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek), producing 9.3 million metric tons of steelmaking coal in 2025. Revenue is entirely from HCC sales to blast furnace steel producers in Asia (48%), Europe (37%), South America (14%), and US (1%). Top 5 customers represent approximately 56% of total sales revenues.