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Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Coking Coal

Earnings in 0 days (2026-04-30). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.36; Below-average business quality.

Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek) to global steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It produced 9.3M metric tons in 2025; 56% of revenues came from its five... Read more

$89.89+2.2% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#1 of 3 Coking Coal
Stop $83.65Target $91.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$105.67+17.6%6 analysts
$91.93our TP
$89.89price
$105.67mean
$120

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal
Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%)
Target reached (2.2% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)83.4
P/E (Fwd)9.9
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA19.4
Profit Mgn4.3%
ROE2.7%
Rev Growth29.4%
Beta0.69
Dividend0.36%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C3.36bearish
IV79%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditysteelmaking coal
    10-K Item 1A: 'Substantially all of our revenues are derived from the sale of steelmaking coal and our business may suffer from a substantial or extended decline in steelmaking coal pricing'
  • HIGHCustomerfive largest customers56%
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derived approximately 56% of our total sales revenues from our five largest customers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-21Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved Warrior Met Coal 2026 Equity Incentive Plan at April 20, 2026 Annual Meeting; plan adopted by Board February 10, 2026. All six incumbent directors re-elected. Routine compensatory plan adoption.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.6
Roa
0.7
Roe
0.9
Net Margin
2.2
Operating Margin
3.6
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Current Ratio
9.8
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -205% FCF/NINo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
54 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $82.17Resistance $96.47

Price Targets

$84
$92
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.5 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HCC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $89.89: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.1/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 3.36; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 54, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $83.65. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HCC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $91.93 (+2.2% upside). Prior stop was $83.65. Stop-loss: $83.65.

What are the risks of investing in HCC?

Concentration risk — Commodity: steelmaking coal; Concentration risk — Customer: five largest customers (56.0%); Target reached (2.2% upside).

Is HCC overvalued or undervalued?

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. trades at a P/E of 83.4 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about HCC?

12 analysts cover HCC with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $106.

What does Warrior Met Coal, Inc. do?Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine...

Warrior Met Coal is a U.S.-based producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal from Alabama mines (Mine No. 4, Mine No. 7, Blue Creek) to global steel manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It produced 9.3M metric tons in 2025; 56% of revenues came from its five largest customers. The recently commissioned Blue Creek longwall expands nameplate capacity to 13.7M tons/year.

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