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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, (AMR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Basic Materials · Coking Coal

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based metallurgical coal producer operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines in the Central Appalachian basin (Virginia and West Virginia), supplying global steel and coke producers. Met coal represents 96% of coal revenues, with... Read more

$182.30+14.0% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#2 of 3 Coking Coal
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield2.64%
Stop $169.54Target $207.76(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$194.50+6.7%2 analysts
$207.76our TP
$182.30price
$194.50mean
$208

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alpha Metallurgical Resources,

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: export revenues (73.0%)
Target reached (-9.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.4
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA12.1
Profit Mgn-1.8%
ROE-2.5%
Rev Growth-1.3%
Beta0.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditymet coal96%
    10-K Item 1: 'Met coal accounted for approximately 96% and 97%, respectively, of our coal revenues for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024.'
  • HIGHGeographicexport revenues73%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, coal export revenues accounted for approximately 73% of our coal revenues.'
  • HIGHCustomertop 10 customers77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'coal sales to our 10 largest customers accounted for approximately 77% of our total revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Moat
2.5
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
9.3
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -1.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEINSIDER 0.56%=HEAVYMomentum 4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.8>=4.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $170.01Resistance $212.00

Price Targets

$170
$208
A.Upside+14.0%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-07 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $182.30: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.0/10. Specifically: High short interest: 18%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $169.54. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.76 (+14.0% upside). Prior stop was $169.54. Stop-loss: $169.54.

What are the risks of investing in AMR?

Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: export revenues (73.0%); Target reached (-9.3% upside).

Is AMR overvalued or undervalued?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMR?

11 analysts cover AMR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $195.

What does Alpha Metallurgical Resources, do?Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based metallurgical coal producer operating 14 underground and 5 surface...

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based metallurgical coal producer operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines in the Central Appalachian basin (Virginia and West Virginia), supplying global steel and coke producers. Met coal represents 96% of coal revenues, with exports (primarily to Asia) accounting for 73% of total coal revenues in 2025.

Related stocks: HCC (Warrior Met Coal, Inc.) · METC (Ramaco Resources, Inc.) · ORLA (Orla Mining Ltd.) · IAG (Iamgold Corporation) · FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.)