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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, (AMR) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Coking Coal

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-08). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.62: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia, operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines producing predominantly metallurgical coal for global steel producers. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues... Read more

$186.62+11.5% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#3 of 3 Coking Coal
Stop $175.77Target $207.76(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$201.00+7.7%2 analysts
$207.76our TP
$186.62price
$201.00mean
$208

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.62: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 2/6 gates (no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: coal export revenues (73.0%)
Target reached (-8.3% upside)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)5.7
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn-2.9%
ROE-3.9%
Rev Growth-15.7%
Beta0.75
DividendNone
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.65bullish
IV79%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCommoditymet coal96%
    10-K Item 1A: 'met coal accounted for 96% of our coal revenues'
  • HIGHGeographiccoal export revenues73%
    10-K Item 1A: 'For the year ended December 31, 2025, coal export revenues accounted for approximately 73% of our coal revenues'
  • HIGHCustomertop-10 customers77%
    10-K Item 1A: 'coal sales to our 10 largest customers accounted for approximately 77% of our total revenues'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -15.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -16%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Piotroski F
4.4
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.5
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Ma Position
4.0
Obv
4.6
Rsi
5.5
Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 2.8<4.5A.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dINSIDER 0.41%=MODERATENo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
46 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $181.21Resistance $212.00

Price Targets

$176
$208
A.Upside+11.3%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-8.3% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.2 < 4.0)
! Momentum score 2.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-08 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AMR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $186.62: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.2/10. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $175.77. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AMR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $207.76 (+11.5% upside). Prior stop was $175.77. Stop-loss: $175.77.

What are the risks of investing in AMR?

Concentration risk — Commodity: met coal (96.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: coal export revenues (73.0%); Target reached (-8.3% upside).

Is AMR overvalued or undervalued?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 5.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AMR?

11 analysts cover AMR with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $201.

What does Alpha Metallurgical Resources, do?Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia,...

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is a Tennessee-based coal mining company with operations in Virginia and West Virginia, operating 14 underground and 5 surface mines producing predominantly metallurgical coal for global steel producers. Met coal accounted for 96% of coal revenues in 2025 and coal exports represented 73% of coal revenues. The company owns a 65% interest in Dominion Terminal Associates, a Newport News coal export terminal.

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