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Core & Main, Inc. (CNM) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).

Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products with 370+ U.S. and Canadian branches serving municipalities, contractors, and private water companies. Fiscal 2025 sales split 44% municipal, 38% non-residential, and 18%... Read more

$46.08+18.0% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#14 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield5.17%
Stop $44.69Target $54.45(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$60.50+31.3%16 analysts
$54.45our TP
$46.08price
$60.50mean
$40
$75

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 20d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.0
P/E (Fwd)15.5
Mkt Cap$9.0B
EV/EBITDA12.0
Profit Mgn5.8%
ROE24.0%
Rev Growth-6.9%
Beta0.93
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV62%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductpipes, valves & fittings67%
    10-K Item 1: 'Pipes, valves & fittings products accounted for approximately 67% of our net sales in fiscal 2025.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-27Item 5.02LOW
    M. Susan Hardwick (former CEO of American Water Works) appointed to Board effective April 1, 2026 as Class III director and member of Talent and Compensation Committee. No departures cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.4
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Revenue shrinking — -6.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.8
Earnings Growth
3.8
Declining revenue: -7%
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 20d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
37 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $46.07Resistance $51.79

Price Targets

$45
$54
A.Upside+18.2%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-09 (20d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.6/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $46.08 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 37, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $44.69. Score 4.7/10, high confidence.

What is the CNM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $54.45 (+18.0% upside). Prior stop was $44.69. Stop-loss: $44.69.

What are the risks of investing in CNM?

Concentration risk — Product: pipes, valves & fittings (67.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is CNM overvalued or undervalued?

Core & Main, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.0 (forward 15.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CNM?

19 analysts cover CNM with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Core & Main, Inc. do?Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products with 370+...

Core & Main is a specialty distributor of water, wastewater, storm drainage, and fire protection products with 370+ U.S. and Canadian branches serving municipalities, contractors, and private water companies. Fiscal 2025 sales split 44% municipal, 38% non-residential, and 18% residential, with pipes, valves & fittings representing 67% of net sales.

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