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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $45.85 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through corporate agents and franchisees across the U.S., partnering with 200+ carriers. It earns commission revenue from carriers and royalty/fees from franchisees.... Read more

$44.80+38.0% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#2 of 11 Insurance Brokers
Entry $45.85(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $40.42Target $58.80(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.6:1
Analyst target$67.58+50.9%12 analysts
$58.80our TP
$44.80price
$67.58mean
$100

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $45.85 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.50, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+0.58)
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)41.4
P/E (Fwd)17.3
Mkt Cap$1.7B
EV/EBITDA14.0
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE
Rev Growth23.3%
Beta1.68
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C8.33bearish
IV93%elevated
Max Pain$23-49.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of Carriers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers, the loss of which would result in additional expense and loss of market share.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOW
    John Martin appointed as Chief Financial Officer effective April 20, 2026. No prior CFO departure described in this filing. No reason cited.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOW
    Amendment disclosing Separation Agreement for former General Counsel John O'Connor, dated April 3, 2026. O'Connor to provide consulting through September 30, 2026. No new departure event.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02MEDIUM
    General Counsel John O'Connor left effective immediately March 30, 2026; no reason initially disclosed. Martin Ellis Thornthwaite appointed as General Counsel effective immediately as successor.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Louis Goldberg appointed to Goosehead Insurance Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, also to Nominating and Governance Committee. Routine board appointment.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
5.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.9
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.8<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.50EARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
61 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $39.64Resistance $54.94

Price Targets

$40
$46
$59
A.Upside+31.3%
A.R:R2.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.6%
Max %1.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 3.8/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GSHD stock a buy right now?

Wait — supporting gate not met yet. Price is at or below entry $45.85 but weak momentum; below 200-day MA (death cross) still blocks BUY_NOW. Key risks: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $58.80 (+31.3%), stop $40.42 (−10.8%), Setup A.R:R 5.4:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GSHD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.80 (+38.0% upside). Target $58.80 (+31.3%), stop $40.42 (−10.8%), Setup A.R:R 5.4:1. Stop-loss: $40.42.

What are the risks of investing in GSHD?

Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.6%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GSHD overvalued or undervalued?

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 41.4 (forward 17.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about GSHD?

19 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $68.

What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through...

Goosehead Insurance is a fast-growing independent insurance agency distributing personal lines policies through corporate agents and franchisees across the U.S., partnering with 200+ carriers. It earns commission revenue from carriers and royalty/fees from franchisees. Proprietary technology drives efficiency via its quoting and service platforms.

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