Goosehead Insurance combines 23% revenue growth with a PEG ratio of 0.12 and free cash flow exceeding reported earnings by 87%, offering a deeply discounted growth franchise — but a confirmed price downtrend with a hard technical block on momentum signals the market is not yet ready to reward these fundamentals, calling for patience before deploying capital.
Thesis pillars
- High Short Interest Price Overhang↑Improving
- Growth At Deep Valuation Discount→Stable
- Exceptional Cash Conversion Quality→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Inst Constrain edge
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Wait for pullback to $43.98. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.60. Engine's entry $43.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Elevated risk factors.
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices across the U.S. The company earns commissions and royalty fees through more than 200 carrier... Read more
Wait for pullback to $43.98. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.60. Engine's entry $43.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
About Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Goosehead Insurance placed $4.4 billion in Total Written Premium in 2025, up 17% from $3.8 billion in 2024, through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices covering states representing over 97% of the U.S. population. The company distributes personal lines coverage through more than 200 insurance carriers, operates under state insurance licensing requirements across all U.S. markets, and reported an 85% client retention rate and a 10-year Total Written Premium CAGR of 39%.
Goosehead earns Core Revenue as New Business Commissions and Agency Fees — 100% retained for corporate sales and captured as a 20% royalty from franchise sales — plus Renewal Commissions (100% corporate, 50% franchise royalty), and Cost Recovery Revenue from non-refundable Initial Franchise Fees. The 2025 average new-business commission rate was 14% and the renewal rate 12%, with rates generally ranging from 10% to 20% depending on carrier, state, and line of business. Ancillary Revenue from Contingent Commissions, paid by carriers based on profitability, volume, and growth of placed business, supplements core commissions but is less predictable. The filing notes that the majority of new accounts are sourced through referral relationships tied to home purchase transactions, meaning housing market weakness — as seen in 2025 amid elevated interest rates — could weigh on new-account volume. Among the largest independent agency peers, the filing names Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Brown & Brown Inc., and Marsh & McLennan as competitors in the broader market.
Show full overview
Goosehead's revenue is exposed to concentration risk at the carrier level: the 10-K discloses that a significant portion of commission revenues derives from a limited number of carriers, and the loss of any major carrier relationship would result in expense and market share loss. An additional structural dependency sits in the ownership structure: the failure of Mark Jones and Robyn Jones to maintain either a minimum voting interest or the ability to elect a majority of the board of directors could trigger a change-of-control default under the company's Credit Agreement, creating potential refinancing or acceleration risk for the company's debt obligations.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
From Goosehead Insurance, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 10, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Goosehead Insurance, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance (NASDAQ:GSHD) Upgraded at Texas Capital - MarketBeat — MarketBeat positive
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance Inc (GSHD) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS CEO Shakeup Sends Goosehead Insurance Stock Sliding - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance (GSHD) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Goosehead Insurance earnings beat by $0.16, revenue topped estimates - Investing.com UK — Investing.com UK positive
Generated 2026-10-15T11:27:08Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMcounterpartylimited number of Carriers10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOWJohn Martin appointed as Chief Financial Officer of Goosehead Insurance effective April 20, 2026. No prior CFO departure cited in this filing. No reason cited for appointment timing.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOWGoosehead filed 8-K/A detailing Separation Agreement with former General Counsel John O'Connor (departure effective March 29, 2026). O'Connor to provide consulting through September 30, 2026 with six months base salary and continued equity vesting.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWGeneral Counsel John O'Connor left Goosehead Insurance effective immediately on March 30, 2026; no reason cited. Martin Ellis Thornthwaite appointed as General Counsel effective immediately as successor.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $43.98. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $44.60. Engine's entry $43.98 (support + ATR (held)) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Strong overall profile with balanced scores. Target $54.01 (+21.1%), stop $41.55 (−7.3%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Score 6.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $54.01 (+21.1% upside). Target $54.01 (+21.1%), stop $41.55 (−7.3%), A.R:R 2.1:1. Stop-loss: $41.55.
Earnings in 6 days (event risk); Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.0%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 32.6 (forward 16.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
20 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $62.
What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage...
Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency distributing home, auto, and related coverage through 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate sales offices across the U.S. The company earns commissions and royalty fees through more than 200 carrier relationships; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4 billion in 2025 with an 85% client retention rate.