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Goosehead Insurance, Inc. (GSHD) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors.

Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate offices; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4B in 2025. Revenue comes from commissions (14% average on new business, 12% on renewals in 2025) and royalties... Read more

$40.36+45.1% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 11 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.87%
Stop $37.53Target $58.58(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.5:1
Analyst target$67.33+66.8%12 analysts
$58.58our TP
$40.36price
$67.33mean
$100

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Val7.5Qual6.9Grw9.2Mom3.4Sent7.1Ins5.2Peer2.9Tech4.7Risk3.46.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
Negative momentum
Elevated risk factors
Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)36.2
P/E (Fwd)15.1
Mkt Cap$1.5B
EV/EBITDA12.6
Profit Mgn7.9%
ROE—
Rev Growth23.3%
Beta1.62
DividendNone
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.75bearish
IV82%elevated
Max Pain$70+73.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlimited number of Carriers
    10-K Item 1A: 'We derive a significant portion of our commission revenues from a limited number of Carriers, the loss of which would result in additional expense and loss of market share'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-17Item 5.02LOW
    Louis Goldberg appointed to Board of Directors effective February 18, 2026, and to the Nominating and Governance Committee. No reason cited for prior vacancy.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOW
    General Counsel John O'Connor left effective March 30, 2026; Martin Ellis Thornthwaite (formerly SVP at RealPage) appointed as General Counsel effective immediately. Clean handoff.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-08Item 5.02LOW
    O'Connor Separation Agreement (dated April 3, 2026) provides consulting through Sep 30, 2026, 6 months base salary, and continued equity vesting. Supplementary to March 30 departure disclosure.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-22Item 5.02LOW
    John Martin appointed Chief Financial Officer effective April 20, 2026. No predecessor departure notice filed separately; no disagreement cited.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
0.9
Quality Rank
1.0
Growth Rank
4.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Macd
2.6
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 63d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $35.84Resistance $54.94

Price Targets

$38
$59
A.Upside+45.1%
A.R:R3.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (63d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GSHD stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.36, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 38, MACD bearish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $58.58 (+45.1%), stop $37.53 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GSHD stock price target?

Take-profit target: $58.58 (+45.1% upside). Target $58.58 (+45.1%), stop $37.53 (−7.5%), A.R:R 3.5:1. Stop-loss: $37.53.

What are the risks of investing in GSHD?

Negative momentum; Elevated risk factors; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is GSHD overvalued or undervalued?

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. trades at a P/E of 36.2 (forward 15.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about GSHD?

19 analysts cover GSHD with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $67.

What does Goosehead Insurance, Inc. do?Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate...

Goosehead Insurance is an independent personal lines insurance agency with 1,009 franchise locations and 13 corporate offices; Total Written Premium grew 17% to $4.4B in 2025. Revenue comes from commissions (14% average on new business, 12% on renewals in 2025) and royalties from franchisees; 85% client retention rate and $4.4B TWP across 200+ carrier relationships.

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