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CRVLCorVel Corp.Sell5.2·$74.33
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The stock is in a confirmed technical downtrend — trading below its 200-day moving average with a negative slope and falling volume accumulation, with a death-cross pattern in effect — and has missed earnings estimates in all four available reporting periods, making a near-term recovery difficult to justify on the evidence at hand.

Thesis pillars

  • Return On Equity Sustainability→Stable
  • Confirmed Price Downtrend→Stable
  • Earnings Miss Streak→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

CorVel Corp. (CRVL) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5GrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $74.33. Consecutive earnings misses (4).

CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill review, PPO network management, utilization management, case management, and pharmacy services — nationwide to insurers, TPAs, and self-insured employers.... Read more

$74.33+15.0% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#15 of 16 Insurance Brokers
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield2.46%
Stop $70.37Target $85.48(default +15%)A.R:R 0.0:1

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $74.33. Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, news events none recent, earnings proximity 38d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About CorVel Corp.

About CorVel Corp.

CorVel Corporation delivers medical cost containment and managed care services for workers' compensation, automobile insurance, and group health claims through a nationwide branch network backed by a primary data center in Portland, Oregon, and a redundancy center in Lone Mountain, Nevada. The proprietary PPO network exceeded 1.2 million providers at March 31, 2026. No single customer accounted for 10% or more of revenue in fiscal years 2026, 2025, or 2024, with clients spanning insurers, TPAs, government entities, and self-insured employers.

CorVel earns service fees through three delivery modes: fully integrated claims-management programs for self-insured employers seeking a single partner, discrete standalone modules for large insurance carriers or TPAs, and targeted add-on services that extend existing client workflows. The bill review platform uses an AI rules engine with over 100 million individual rules to automate claim adjudication and generate savings reports via the CareMC portal. Pharmacy services, directed care networks, case management, and vocational rehabilitation round out the service stack. Competitors include national managed care providers, TPAs, PPOs, and insurance carriers that perform managed care in-house. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 2.34 million occupational injuries in 2024, below the pre-pandemic 2019 count of 2.69 million, though CorVel has expanded market share even as total claims volume remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Show full overview

Workers' compensation managed care is subject to state-specific statutes and court decisions that vary extensively across jurisdictions, governing claims handling, benefit amounts, and cost-control strategies. The 10-K identifies legislative reform risk — states have considered but not enacted provisions that would allow employers to designate HMOs or PPOs to cover workers' compensation claimants, which could intensify competition from health plans with existing managed-care capabilities. In May 2026, CorVel disclosed via Form 8-K that Michael Combs, Chairman, CEO, and President for 34 years, will transition to Executive Chair effective July 1, 2026, with Sarah Scott appointed as incoming CEO and President.

See also: Financial Services · Insurance Brokers

From CorVel Corp.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-26
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202638d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Positive momentum
Wide economic moat
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (4)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)32.6
P/E (Fwd)—
Mkt Cap$3.7B
EV/EBITDA19.0
Profit Mgn11.7%
ROE30.7%
Rev Growth10.7%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts—

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.33bullish
IV47%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-01Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Michael G. Combs (CEO, President, Chairman) transitioning to Executive Chair effective July 1, 2026. Sarah Scott appointed CEO and President effective July 1, 2026. Clean handoff; Combs continues as Executive Chair advising on transition.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Show full disclosure ▾

About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.

Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 0B/4M

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.7
Support Resistance
0.7
52w Position
5.9
GatesA.R:R UPSIDE_EXHAUSTED (upside=0.0%)INSIDER 0.44%=MODERATEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.1>=5.5NEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 38d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
72 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $65.18Resistance $75.00

Price Targets

$70
$85
A.R:R0.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (38d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CRVL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine flags exit at $74.33. Consecutive earnings misses (4). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $70.37. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CRVL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.48 (+15.0% upside). Prior stop was $70.37. Stop-loss: $70.37.

What are the risks of investing in CRVL?

Consecutive earnings misses (4).

Is CRVL overvalued or undervalued?

CorVel Corp. trades at a P/E of 32.6 (forward N/A). TrendMatrix value score: 4.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

0
What does CorVel Corp. do?CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill...

CorVel Corporation provides workers' compensation managed care and medical cost containment services — including bill review, PPO network management, utilization management, case management, and pharmacy services — nationwide to insurers, TPAs, and self-insured employers. Revenue is fee-based with no single client exceeding 10% of revenues in fiscal years 2026, 2025, or 2024.

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